What is a trend? - page 39
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Many take a different view. For some reason Zhirinovsky's election slogan comes to mind: we are for the poor, we are for the Russians).
I'm not advocating doing things my way =) trading is an intimate matter =) I just gave away a couple of my thoughts on the subject. Like sailing ships, unlike ancient sailors, it does not matter where to sail, the main thing is to sail any positive distance, and the take is either a missed profit or complete disappointment.
How can you make money without predicting the future? And why do you need trends then?
A forecast is the result of your mathematical model, which includes not only the market pattern (the presence of trends), but also the mechanism that determines the fading or ending of those trends. In this case, your forecast will work at a profit.
If your mathematical model is not complete, for example there is no mechanism for determining the decay of a trend, then there is a high probability that you will open a position at the end of a trend and get a legitimate minus.
Predicting the future is an utterly useless exercise, neither trends, nor patterns, nor fractals are helpful. The biggest mistake a trader can make is trying to predict the future. But that doesn't mean that there are no trends, and it doesn't mean that you can't make money on them.
All true, but you don't have to prove anything to anyone, everyone has their own way, most have a way of losing. Trading is not formalizable, it cannot be squeezed into a narrow framework of mathematics and programming, profitable trading is based on psychology, on intuition, on understanding the behaviour of major players, not dabbling with indicators and neural networks.
Everything is true, but there is no need to prove anything to anyone, everyone has their own way, most of them it is the way of losing. Trading is not formalizable, it cannot be squeezed into the narrow confines of mathematics and programming, profitable trading is based on psychology, on intuition, on understanding the behaviour of major players, rather than dabbling with indicators and neural networks.
In one of the forum threads there were published requirements of the largest banks for applicants for analyst positions, but the knowledge of mathematical analysis and statistics was present in the requirements, while psychology and intuition somehow did not come up...
Everything is true, but there is no need to prove anything to anyone, everyone has their own way, most of them it is the way of losing. Trading is not formalizable, it cannot be squeezed into a narrow framework of mathematics and programming. Profitable trading is based on psychology, on intuition, on understanding the behaviour of major players, not dabbling with indicators and neural networks.
I cannot say anything about psychology or intuition, I am not so good at it, everything is formalized for me, but changing from trend to flat and vice versa... This is the most difficult for me, I don't know how to recognize the start of the flat. But there is a news release chart. About proving... I'm certainly not going to do that. I am simply discussing a topic I am interested in, in which I think I understand something, and am trying to understand more.
In one of the forum threads there were published requirements of the largest banks for applicants for analyst positions, but the requirements included mastery of mathematical analysis and statistics, but psychology and intuition were somehow absent...
Misinformation, financial institutions often misinform the public and competitors about what they actually do, it's like in war, it is forbidden by law to physically kill or torture, information warfare is left, potential competitors have to follow a false path.
As for psychology and intuition I can't say anything, I'm not so good at it, everything is formalized for me, but transition from trend to flat and vice versa... This is the most difficult for me, I don't know how to recognize the start of the flat. But there is a news release chart. About proving... I'm certainly not going to do that. I'm just discussing a topic I'm interested in, in which I think I understand something and am trying to understand more.
You cannot say because you are honest, you are cutting the truth, so to speak, and the one who can say it is lying, manipulating, trying to mislead. No one knows where the price will go in the future or what state the market will be. No one among the mere mortals, those who do not create the laws of society and do not regulate the economies of countries, so the future price is not set, it is like a mirage, like the music of the spheres, something from the world of elves and fairies, yada yada yada yada .... ♪ p-ssh-ssh-ssh-ssh-ssh .... sparks and stars fly ♪ here we go....
Enough of this artistic rubbish :-)
The presence of waves in the market is difficult to deny, especially since they can be seen and the methods of their detection/marking have been known for decades. But everyone has his or her own tricks to detect any developing wave before others, and to use them properly. Do waves form into "trends" (i.e. into a larger wave)? Of course they do - each major formation consists of similar, but smaller ones.
A brief methodical excursus with a projection onto the forex market:
A market movement (cycle) consists of two phases - accumulation and distribution (or consolidation). The process of accumulation - a non-linear change in the price of an asset (up or down) that is accompanied by an increase in volumes and volatility. In the process of consolidation, volumes and volatility fall, the price is consistent at a linear level (not necessarily horizontal, it can rise or fall slightly). During consolidation/distribution price does not have to go in the opposite direction, and the magnitude of the movement can be significant, which is what many get caught up in.The accumulation phases add up by organizing the structures of the higher level,
It is very simple to convince: we take EURUSD (the strongest pair, which is less influenced by others) , timeframe H1. We apply the ATR 24 and shift it back to -12 (we average a natural cycle and set it to where it should be). The changes in the direction of the price, accompanied by increasing volatility, may be called a "trend", because they make up what we see on the D1.
that's from Soviet textbooks...:-) capitalism and market price formation have not changed a bit since then
Enough of this artistic rubbish :-)
The presence of waves in the market is difficult to deny, especially since they can be seen and the methods of their detection/marking have been known for decades. But everyone has his or her own tricks to detect any developing wave before others, and to use them properly. Do waves form into "trends" (i.e. into a larger wave)? Of course they do - each major formation consists of similar, but smaller ones.
A brief methodical excursus with a projection onto the forex market:
A market movement (cycle) consists of two phases - accumulation and distribution (or consolidation). The process of accumulation is a non-linear change in the price of the asset (rise or fall) that is accompanied by an increase in volumes and volatility. In the process of consolidation, volumes and volatility fall, the price is consistent at a linear level (not necessarily horizontal, it can rise or fall slightly). During consolidation/distribution price does not have to go in the opposite direction, and the magnitude of the movement can be significant, which is what many get caught up in.The accumulation phases add up organizing the structures of the higher level,
It is very simple to convince: we take EURUSD (the strongest pair, which is less influenced by others) , timeframe H1. We apply the ATR 24 and shift it back to -12 (we average a natural cycle and set it to where it should be). The changes in the direction of the price, accompanied by increasing volatility, may be called a "trend" - because this is what we see on D1.
that's from Soviet textbooks...:-) capitalism and market price formation have not changed a bit since then
A trend is not a wave, but only half of a wave (from the minimum to the maximum or vice versa). The length of the trend is equal to the half of the wave length.
...
The market cycle consists of two phases - accumulation and distribution (i.e. consolidation).
...
that's from Soviet textbooks, by the way.
What is the source, in particular the underlined one?
I searched on the internet - there are many different options. They include:
The economic cycle consists of four successive phases:
upswing (boom);
crisis (recession);
depression (bottom);
Recovery (expansion).