Forecasting currency exchange rates using a neural network - page 6

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paukas: Look. For example 1.3200 is the level. And 1.3205 is its breach. is that clear?

The meaning of the word "broken through" is clear. The question with the levels in this case is whether the price will go back or go further. That is, as you have given an example, there is the level of 1.3200. The price was somewhere below that level. Subsequently, the price breaks through this level and goes to 1.3205, as you pointed out. It is clear that there has been some kind of breakout of the level. Will the price go further or will it go back lower again, if the breakdown occurred by 5 pips?
 
LeoV:

.... Will the price go further or will it go back lower again if the breakdown occurred by 5 pips?

Too bad Grandma Vanga is no longer with us.
 
paukas: It's a pity Grandma Vanga is no longer with us.
What about her? Was she a big expert on the subject? )))
 
LeoV:
What? Was she a big expert in the field? )))


Trading at intraday euro levels with a small stop has had a positive expectation since 2007.

That's more than five years.

 
paukas:

Trading at intraday euro levels with a small stop has had a positive expectation since 2007.

That is more than 5 years.

Where is that calculated?
 
LeoV:
Where is that calculated?


Don't check it under any circumstances!!! ))

You'll be horrified.

 
paukas:

Don't check it under any circumstances!!! ))

You'll be horrified.

Well, how am I supposed to check if everyone's levels are different? ))))
 
paukas: Look. For example, 1.3200 is the level. And 1.3205 is its breakthrough. Is that clear?

I see, of course. And are the five points taken off the top of your head - or is it the result of research?

Here I like three points more, for example.

 
LeoV:
Well, how am I supposed to check if everyone's levels are different? ))))

It's everyone's cockroach.
 
LeoV:

By the way, an interesting question actually. Is it necessary to get a forecast on every bar? I've been thinking about it and have come to this conclusion:

Every new bar is new info. And the new information may be both useful and harmful, because we all know that the financial market abounds in almost full of false movements, i.e. false information. If you get false information you can get a false forecast. Therefore it does not make sense to make a forecast at every new bar. Practically, this leads to what using a neural network, we will look for places where the prediction will be true, or rather have a probability of more than 70% (for example), and respectively, on this found and true information we make a prediction.

Something like this.....))))

That is, it turns out that after making a trade, we get into an area of uncertainty. New bars appear, but there is no information about further price movement, but there is a noise. However, there is an open position. But how to manage it, if there is no information? And why should we hold an open position further? After all, is it more natural to be in the money at a time of uncertainty?
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