Practice testing, reflection, discussion... - page 14

 
prikolnyjkent:

I would agree, if someone could answer the question about the validity of taking into account the impact of the spread on probability, when price almost always goes to the midpoint between stops after opening a position.
There could be two answers. In terms of humanities you MAY win a lot, but in terms of precision you will lose EXACTLY.-)
 
prikolnyjkent:


You must be talking about the wrong thing....

I'm referring to the mirror-like execution of the trades (not the flipping of the sinker). If you repeat my trades exactly "the other way round" in this experiment, then your plus will be equal to my minus to the penny (not taking into account the possible proportionality factor). Of course, I am not including the cases where the price NEEDS to trigger orders in both directions. This is of little significance....

Isn't it so?


Check it out for yourself. Then report back.

Practice, as the old Marx said, is the criterion of truth. The good thing about MT is that you can check any bullshit in a couple of minutes.

 
vl615c:
There could be two answers. In terms of humanities you MAY win a lot, but in terms of exact sciences you will definitely lose.)


Well then help the wretched...

For example, you have a 2 pips spread on the EUR in your account and I have zero.

We both put pendants to buy Eurobucks at 1.3100 with stops SL=TP=30 pips.

Your pose will open at the bid value of 1.3098. And, if you follow your logic, the probability of a positive outcome would be about 46.667%.

But, the quote continues its upward movement. And, at Bid 1.3100, my position also opened (buy at 1.3100). My probability of success is theoretically 50/50.

Question: Is the probability of success still 46.667% or has it become equal to mine (50/50)?

 
alexx_v:
I've been thinking - maybe I'll do an experiment on antimartin, lock my account and start on Monday, because this topic is not fully disclosed on the forum.

We have to decide on the trading criteria...

 

О! And the third postcard has opened :-)

Mona to try the first plate...

 
prikolnyjkent:


Well then help the poor bastard...

For example, you have a 2 point spread in your euR account and I have zero.



How is it zero? Why zero? You have a negative spread. You're a brokerage house.

Then exactly what the clients have lost, you have gained.



 
paukas:

How is zero? Why zero? Let's give you a negative spread. You're a brokerage house.

Then exactly what clients have lost, you have gained.


It's very simple. Like Forex Club. There was (and maybe still is) a type of account with commission and zero spread...
 
prikolnyjkent:

It's very simple. Like ForexClub. There was (and maybe still is) a type of account with commission and zero spread...

Is the commission negative? Do they pay extra for every trade?
 
paukas:

Is the commission negative? Is there a surcharge for every transaction?

Didn't get into it... Pardon me...
 
prikolnyjkent:


Well, then help the poor guy out...

For example, you have a 2 pips spread on the EUR in your account and I have zero.

We both put pendants to buy Eurobucks at 1.3100 with stops SL=TP=30 pips.

Your pose will open at the bid value of 1.3098. And, if you follow your logic, the probability of a positive outcome would be about 46.667%.

But, the quote continues its upward movement. And, at Bid 1.3100, my position also opened (buy at 1.3100). My probability of success is theoretically 50/50.

Question: is the probability of your success still 46.667% or became equal to mine (50/50)?

Frankly speaking, I cannot believe in honesty of a broker with zero spread. There are also swaps, slippages, which are legitimate, that's not the point. Even if we conventionally assume zero spread, it is only a matter of time before the broker goes bankrupt. I can personally confirm that the price reversal "against expectations" can easily exceed the tenfold level. No, of course, with a six-figure deposit you can survive it. But do you need it?