Creating a positive IO - page 24

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DmitriyN:

Theoretically, most of the time the price is close to 50/50 and only at certain times does one of the scales tip the balance.

Is it possible to make a lot of money on this? I doubt it. But it is possible to make a little.

Yes, it is. Practically, this is the only way to make money. Some make good, some excellent, and some not so much.
 
DmitriyN:

Theoretically, most of the time the price is close to 50/50 and only at certain moments does one of the scales tip the balance.
Is it possible to make a lot of money on this? I doubt it. But it is possible to make a little.

The price in itself is not in any state. It may be so for a particular observer and otherwise for another. At a single moment there is an advantage - an input, then an output as with any discrete system. Why cannot one make much profit? What can you make money on?
 
DmitriyN: They are known, however, at the level of the trader, not at the level of the mathematician or programmer.

They are completely different levels. And in some matters they may be completely incompatible....))))
 
DmitriyN:

Theoretically, most of the time the price is close to 50/50 and only at certain moments does one of the scales tip the balance.
Is it possible to make much profit on it? I doubt it. But it is possible to make a little.

A lot or a little depends on how cleanly you can isolate the overweight... or pattern.

If the same little 100 pips is taken with maximum leverage and maximum possible lot, then it will be a lot.

 

So, I'll summarise the intermediate results. Most of what's written in this thread,,,,,,,,, (you know what. And no need to be offended).
However, there are valuable thoughts directly relevant to the topic:

prikolnyjkent:
У кого есть статистика по движению цены после ПРОБОЯ "предыдущего экстремума по тренду" и после ОТКАТА "от предыдущего экстремума по тренду"?
Может там всё те же 50/50, а мы тут напрягать извилины будем...

paukas:

It's not 50x50.


Question. How to determine at these points the probability that these patterns are realised and on which parameters this probability depends:

 
DmitriyN:

Question. How to determine at these points the probability that these patterns are realised and on what parameters this probability depends:

At least like this to start with - 1) we measure the distance in bars from the point of extremum to the breakpoint, 2) in the same interval after the breakpoint, we look at the maximum, minimum and last value
 

alsu:
хотя бы так для начала - 1) измеряем расстояние в барах от точки экстремума до точки пробоя, 2) на таком же отрезке после пробоя смотрим максимум, минимум и последнее значение

Alexei, drew it, but didn't get the point.

(Max-Min)/(Close-Min) - ?

 
DmitriyN:


Question. How to determine the probability at these points that these regularities are realized and on what parameters this probability depends:

Answer. Not simple at all. Very simple: construct a zigzag by points of interest, then determine probabilities, depending on the parameters of point selection (in fact - the parameters of the zigzag).

Only this is of no use. Having defined parameters (their list), you will lose interest in probability theory, unless - statistically check something :)

 
tara:
I would like to describe the breakdown process mathematically.
 
DmitriyN:
I would like to describe the breakdown process mathematically.


I don't get it.

Model - easy! https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/131516

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