Creating a positive IO - page 2
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Ah, as Alexei wrote... the market is not a coin... and it can be.... It would seem that with SL=TP trades on random quotes there would be a probability distribution like a coin.
What I can't understand is this: if there are correlations in the quotes, then the army of free traders would have had to find them out. It would almost certainly leak out... and everyone would have been on this gold mine. But either that's not happening, or I'm missing something... and then I'm hoping for a clue...
when traders in real forex find a pattern, then by opening trades based on it they level out that pattern. There's a whole chapter in the book The Way of the Turtle devoted to this - the trader effect
When traders on the real forex market find a pattern, then opening trades based on it will cancel out the pattern. There is a whole chapter in the book The Way of the Turtle devoted to this - the trader effect
There you go...
What, then, is the conclusion about the RUNNING of quotes...?
What I can't understand is this: if there are correlations in the quotes, then an army of free traders would have had to find them out. It would almost certainly leak out... and everyone would have been on this gold mine. But either that's not happening, or I'm missing something... and then I'm hoping for a clue...
Once again - in most cases the price has 2 degrees of freedom - with equal probability it can go down and up - 50/50.
Let's imagine a highly simplified market model, let's imagine that the maximum price movement is 3 figures.
The price has already passed three. Where will it go? Obviously, it now has one degree of freedom, i.e. it can only go backwards.
One step back and it already has two degrees of freedom. And now she can go up or down again with equal probability.
Once again, in most cases price has 2 degrees of freedom - with equal probability it can go down and up - 50/50.
Let's imagine a highly simplified market model, and let's assume that the maximum price movement is 3 moves.
The price has already passed three. Where will it go? Obviously, it now has one degree of freedom, i.e. it can only go backwards.
One step back and it already has two degrees of freedom. And now she can go up or down again with equal probability.
There you go...
What, then, is the conclusion ABOUT the LUCKY quotes...?
None. Forex quotes are neither random nor deterministic quantities. They are uncertain quantities
Once again - in most cases price has 2 degrees of freedom - with equal probability it can go down and up - 50/50.
Let's imagine a highly simplified market model, let's imagine that the maximum price movement is 3 figures.
The price has already passed three. Where will it go? Obviously, it now has one degree of freedom, i.e. it can only go backwards.
One step back and it already has two degrees of freedom. And now she can go up or down again with equal probability.
There's no such thing... Price has one degree of freedom only when it is at zero, which does not happen. So, if it has passed 3 figures, it will pass the fourth one with the same probability, as it will return to one figure.
But if you do calculate the maximum limit of volatility on the entire history, it is not sure that it can be used normally without "gauging the market" by multiplying lots.
but none. Forex quotes are neither random nor deterministic quantities. They are indeterminate quantities.
Now that's something concrete...
Then, to clarify the subject: "Creating positive MO on indeterminate quantities".
So you know the pattern, but for some reason you don't want to make millions from it, but want to "create positive ME" for some reason...
But, it's one thing to be 99% and another thing to be profitable. These are different things.
Once again - in most cases the price has 2 degrees of freedom - with equal probability it can go down and up - 50/50.