The regularities of price movements: Part 2. Series of bars - page 2
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This is what the result looks like for a 4 o'clock series:
A series of 100 bars should have at least 36 rising bars.
From this you can conclude that if on a series of 50 bars you have already had 10 rising bars,
then on the next 50 bars you must have at least 36-10=26 rising bars (at least).
Consequently, the falling bars there will be about 50-26=24.
I.e. there will be about the same number of falling and rising bars.
Of course, the height of the bar is not taken into account.
I have written about this many times before, that professionalism is made up of many elements of process understanding.
the biggestprofessors areastrologers: that's who have a universal understanding of the process.
Professionalism is based on knowledge, for starters - the beginnings of theorists and understanding the dependence of statistics on the type of statistical process: stationary - non-stationary (for starters). Then with or without trend, etc. and so two branches of the numbers game.made 1 series of all 6400 bars almost 50/50, 29 bars missed the frame
It would be good to add time to the script - from and to, selection of hours during the day, days of the week, month
I can't understand what this analysis can give, but let's put it down to my ineptitude.
It is just a qualitative characteristic, which weakly (it should be calculated differently), but indicates that there is an asymmetry in the nature of the bull / bear movement and that it is better to play long / short on different strategies or with different
parameters. - I came to this six months ago, when I was running my EA separately for buy and separately for sell. Sometimes the asymmetry is very strong and stable in time.
This is my imho.
Wrong conclusion. Don't forget that the process has no memory. Think of roulette: if you get red 10 times in 50 spins, that doesn't mean that you have to get 40 reds in the next 50 spins for the total 100 spins to be 50/50.
However, we do know, for example, that for a series of 100 trades, 30 will be in profit (as an example). And not 1 out of 10...20 (as in some cases with martingale, for example).
This ficus picus can easily be eliminated by digitising the price, i.e. converting it to a digital format - a grid with a set pitch. But more on that later.
Also 0.5^n will be
I cannot understand what such analysis can give, but let's put it down to my ineptitude.
You have a very correct 'futility'. Don't let yourself be led astray by this obtuseness.
Real quotes, which have trends: a deterministic component, are investigated. There is noise around these trends, very often just white noise. It is a mix of the deterministic component, to which statistics are not applicable, and a random component, which is studied together with the deterministic component and thus statistics are not applicable either.
Please note that the question is not posed at all: can we do as we do? Do we add tons to meters? What are we measuring?
What they are trying to investigate here has been investigated many times: what is more likely, a continuation of movement or a pullback? But we need to detrend the cotier. Then we can trust the statistics, if in addition to the probability the study of the law of distribution and the confidence interval is given.
So far it is a numbers game. Just an amusement. Such specific humour.
It's also 0.5^n.
Better a game of numbers than a game of telescopes :) Numbers are less abstract.
You have advertised yourself as a professional trader - otherwise I would pass by.
Why don't a professional trader take EViews or its equivalent and just do the math. There's such a concept as leverage (if I remember correctly) and relevant charts and answer all your questions without getting bogged down in scripts.
I would love to see the result.