The regularities of price movements: Part 1. Price orientation - page 12

New comment
 
gpwr:
Question: what is the statistic on the direction of price movement after breaking through a tapering triangle in relation to the direction of the volatile (outer) bar? I assume that the direction should be in the opposite direction.

Otherwise: If price consolidates after a trend move, will it turn around, or will it continue moving? :)

What do the statistics have to do with it, anyway...

 

As I thought, the reason is the pattern of volatility decay. I have written a script that builds the distribution of High and Low bars following the high volatility bar.

I.e. I take a bar whose range (High-Low) is greater by K times than the average range of the latest X bars and plot average increments of their High and Low for the next Y bars

EURUSD (100000 bars) m15 K=5:

we can see that there is a gradual fading of the wave after the impulse bar. In fact the formation of "flag" pattern. And that is why on the average a lot of internal bars are formed.

 

and now what happened not only after but also before the impulse bar:

zero on the abscissa is the bar at which the ox is 5 times greater than the previous bars. In other words, the ox rises instantly to its maximum and decays much slower. Therefore there are more interior bars than exterior ones

 
Avals:

That is, the ox rises instantly to a maximum and decays much more slowly. Therefore, there are more internal bars than external ones

So the observed effect is caused by asymmetry between the rise and fall of volatility. But shouldn't it be the other way round. A momentary rise in volatility, according to the idea, makes external bars more likely? I.e., the bar which is 5 times larger is more likely to break through both extremums of the previous one, but the ox declines not so quickly following it and therefore it has a better chance to break out of the range of the previous one.
 
C-4:
The momentum build-up of the ox by idea makes the outer bars more likely? I.e., the bar which will be 5 times bigger is more likely to break through both extremums of the previous one

I think 1 extremum is more likely to break than both

__________________________________________

In fact, I'd make a "Mythbusters" section.

1. Myth - the euro rises more often in September than it falls

2. Overnight selling kiwi audi (still need to agree on night time Msk or other time)

3. Monday - no trading

4. Friday - pullback from the main trend of the week

Igor Kim worked in this direction (buying-selling overnight).

At the picture - overnight buying of the chiff.

 
poruchik:

In fact, I'd make a Mythbusters section

What's the problem? Let's have a useful thread on trollishness and fluderazm :)
 
USSR:
I guess it's always the helpful ones.
I don't know about you -- dangling forum usefulness.
 

Today we are witnessing an expanding triangle.

И ???

 
which pair and TF, drawing will accelerate understanding
 
ULAD:

Today we are witnessing an expanding triangle.

И ???

It was the same last Tuesday.
1...5678910111213
New comment