FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 13: March 2012) - page 142
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BMO Capital analysts recommend investors to sell the single currency against the dollar ahead of the FOMC meeting this evening.
Specialists believe that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will not meet expectations on QE, as positive US employment data has recently come in. That's the BMO base case scenario.
However, analysts emphasize that the Fed can always come up with a surprise, and should buy the Mexican peso against the dollar if there is a hint of a new quantitative easing.
BMO does not agree with the experts who suggest to bet on emerging market currencies instead of key currencies. The bank stresses that developing countries are aggressively cutting interest rates, which means that investors' usual exchange rate movements on changes in market sentiment towards risk will change.Where do we fall to? Who knows???
Here's my old drawing:
We'd better sit on the sidelines for now...
According to most analysts, the FOMC is unlikely to propose new stimulus measures given the ongoing operation twist aimed at lowering long-term interest rates and further easing financial conditions in the economy.
Recall that the U.S. central bank intends by the end of 2012 to buy $400bn of U.S. treasuries maturing in 6-30 years and sell an equal amount of treasuries maturing in three years or less.
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch: We expect the Fed to maintain its previous soft approach to monetary policy as it is aware of the risks in the oil market and the recent general economic recovery.
BNY Mellon: Positive data will strengthen the Fed's confidence in the effectiveness of the plan. The central bank seems set to fight a "known evil".
Any hint of quantitative easing will weaken the dollar. The dollar may strengthen further against the single currency on the back of it serving as a safe haven currency against European debt problems. Many investors are eagerly awaiting Bernanke's statements on QE3 and the silence of the Fed chairman may cause some upward market correction.
DW
Greece has completed its bond exchange
Greece has completed the exchange of 177.2 billion euro bonds issued under Greek law, news agency dpa reported Monday, March 12, citing the Greek Finance Ministry. The remaining €28.5 billion worth of bonds will be exchanged for new ones by April 11. As a result ofthe large-scale debt relief, Greece's debt has been almost halved, DAPD noted. This was made possible after investors holding 85.8 percent of Greek government bonds agreed to the debt forgiveness on Friday, March 9. Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude Juncker said there were no obstacles in the way of providing Greece with a second bailout package of 130 billion euros, dpa news agency reported.
RBC Daily
New Greek government bonds start to float on the market
New Greek government bonds issued as part of an exchange with the private sector officially began trading on the international market on March 12, 2012. According to Reuters, the yields on new Greek bonds due 2023-2042 range between 14% and 19% (at bid, or asking price). At the same time Greek bonds have an inverted yield curve: instruments with a closer maturity are trading at a higher yield. On securities maturing in 2023, the yield to maturity is 19.3% and on securities maturing in 2042 it is 14.25%. - 14,25%. The inversion of the yield curve indicates that investors still fear a Greek default - now on new bonds.
Bounced back!
How far? It looks more like a local bounce and should continue falling
how far? it looks like we bounced back locally and should continue falling
so you think that today or now we will go down to 1.3050?
I wonder if we don't go down, what do you say then?
Who knows!