Econometrics: one step ahead forecast - page 102

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paukas:
You can't do that. If the total lost is zero, the result I'm afraid to even imagine.

Alexei's formula is certainly not infinity-proof either.
 
C-4:

Alexei's formula is definitely not infinity-proof either.

He has at least a piece-by-piece.

 
Mathemat:
That's not how the profit factor is calculated. It's a ratio of "number of profitable trades*size of average profitable trade/(number of losing trades*size of average losing trade)".

when we count the profit, we have to get rid of the lot size. that's why I count the profit factor in pips.

Besides, you should get rid of influence of the strong market movements. According to your formula it is quite possible that one strong profit movement closes many weak loss movements. If you count in trades, then the effect of one random trade (for example, a caught spike) will not.

 
There are difficulties for me in applying the concept of the profit factor of a forecast, if we look at forecast valuation as such. What are we forecasting? Direction or magnitude? Do we account for forecast error or not? It is likely to be difficult to construct a forecast estimate outside the system on the use of the forecast.
 
faa1947:

When calculating a profit, you have to get rid of the lot size. that's why I calculate the profit factor in pips.

Besides, we should get rid of effects of strong market movements. If we count in trades, then the effect of one random trade (e.g. caught spike) will not exist.

That's a particular thing. Let it be in pips, I don't mind.

I just tweaked the formula.

 
faa1947:
There are difficulties for me in applying the concept of the profit factor of a forecast, if we look at forecast valuation as such. What are we forecasting? Direction or magnitude? Do we account for forecast error or not? It is likely to be difficult to construct a forecast estimate outside the system on the use of the forecast.

Direction...
 
Vizard:

direction...
Turns
 
faa1947:
Turns

First the trends! (Which way the trend is going? I've fallen behind the train...) and then there will be reversals!
 
Tantrik:

First the trends! (Which way the trend is going? I've fallen behind the train...) and then there will be reversals!
A reversal is the beginning of a trend
 
faa1947:
A pivot is the start of a trend
and the beginning of a reversal?
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