Is any prediction doomed? - page 31
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The task, in general, is unsolvable. But this is exactly what the numerator tries to do in the tester.
The franc is now highly oversold. Moreover, the franc is so oversold, that I wouldn't make conclusions about buying it on Monday, because its behavior does not fit into purely economic considerations. Personally, I would prefer to wait out of the market, and then on Tuesday-Wednesday, we'll "look and see". But this is MY analysis, MY forecasts and MY vision of the market, the results of this analysis with all their profits and losses will also be mine.
This is about something else. Multicurrency analysis and, as a consequence, forecasting the behaviour of several instruments actually has a basis in purely economic considerations, aligning at certain points in time fundamental movements, which is exactly what we are seeing in the behaviour of the franc right now.
Again, don't be so categorical...
This was my post from the 13th page of the topic, "now" it's the thirtieth...
The topic has managed to get covered with pedestrian crossings, degrees of unsteadiness of the market and other rubbish, good thing no one got into a fight yet...
Below is a screenshot showing the results of Sunday's forecast for the franc...
... So, what, "Any prediction is out of whack"? No regularities in the market? Or is the TA not working?
Or is the TA not working?
It's not clear - you were told at length what you would do with the franc in terms of FA and multicurrency analysis and in the end it turned out that you were making deals on TA?
Come on Oleg, I don't have the faintest idea about the fundamental reasons for the franc's fall at the end of last week. All conclusions and trading decisions are based on TA, namely the indicator readings in MetaTrader. So it is a technical analysis in a pure form.
Right now the franc is heavily oversold.
Multicurrency analysis and consequently the prediction of the behavior of several instruments, in fact, have a basis in the form of purely economic considerations, aligning the fundamental movements at certain moments, which is exactly what we are now seeing in the franc's behavior.
????
Is any prediction doomed? - Yeah, but casual gambling isn't eradicable. It's when you stash a hundred bucks from your paycheck, write a program, blow it away. Dreams remain, you wait for your next paycheck. And it's like you're in business...
You observe the fundamental movement of the franc and use that as a basis for multi-currency analysis - that's not TA at all
I see the movement of a currency as an aggregate movement of currency pairs involving it. Those movements that contradict economic data (imho), I call fundamental, because I cannot find another explanation. This may be wrong, but I have no other explanation - I am a total zero in FA.
I think I know what you mean...
I see the movement of a currency as the cumulative movement of currency pairs involving it. Those movements, which contradict (imho) economic considerations, I call fundamental, because I cannot find another explanation. This may be wrong, but I have no other explanation - I am a total zero in FA.
The economic consideration is the FA. Multicurrency analysis contradicts TA, because the basic and cornerstone tenet of TA is the necessity and sufficiency of the price and volume of an asset for analysis.
Gotcha?
economic considerations are what FA is all about. Multicurrency analysis contradicts TA, because the basic and cornerstone tenet of TA is the necessity and sufficiency of the price and volume of an asset for analysis.
Gotcha?