Is any prediction doomed? - page 10
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What am I wrong about? There are many links (forces in action) and which one will win ... (observations are made). At the expense of easy ways to someone who helps someone who learns everything faster in game form. Good luck!
Omen differ from regularities so that omens have no intelligible explanation of the processes behind them. It's just statistics. And usually, it's a mis-calculated statistic.
By the way, playful forms of learning are only suitable for young children - ask any sensible psychologist. So, good luck.It is these patterns that need to be studied - calculating and determining the strength of the line. Once the "current guideline" is determined, you can (should) track the price deviation, taking into account the transition (not transition) to a "different level guideline".
A revealed pattern will be so if it is realised 100% of the time.
Anything below a hundred is a prediction with a probability of that many percent.
Who has a true 100% pattern?
You? You're a god!
Everything....Gone (wobbling my accident-affected leg) burning pots(
A revealed pattern will be one if it is realised 100% of the time.
Generally correct. The word "pattern" comes from the word "law". Real laws never change unlike made-up laws. But let's not be fanatical. Is 99% not good enough for you? Or the deviation of the real price from the forecast by 1%?
Anything below a hundred is a forecast with a probability of that many percent.
Yes.
Who has a true 100% pattern?
Is it even necessary? With a reasonable MM, it is enough that the pattern overlaps the spread and other costs, if any, and you will have a profit, while the loss will not have you. The more often the pattern is fulfilled, the closer a reasonable MM has the right to be to an unreasonable one.
I've shown you before, but I'll show you again.
Price is the sum of two lines of the same colour. This is the law. A line extended into the future will go that way with any price behaviour , with deviations almost imperceptible to the eye. That is also the law.
Oddly enough - it's fine 50/50....
It's just that profitable trades weigh at least 2-3 times as much as unprofitable ones.
I would like to join in.
I'll try to explain for those who don't understand the difference. Using a simple example.
Let's say someone is standing at a crossroads, looking at a car that has pulled up, stopped at a traffic light and needs to move. This person is standing, looking at the car and deciding in his mind where the car will go. So, if you transfer the current argument to this simple life situation, those who talk about prognosis are most likely trying to calculate the exact trajectory of the car (to within centimeters, sometimes ;) just by the way it has come to the crossroads. Sometimes it's possible, even in life, but more often it's 50/50. Or for example, determining where a car will move by its colour is a good task :) But searching for patterns is something else. For instance, you look - turn right, and it's all the same how exactly you turn right, along what trajectory, or even along curbs. Of course, this example is exaggerated and, in principle, the knowledge of turn signals is given by traffic regulations, but just imagine a group of monkeys on the street. Obviously, a group that will guess to look at turn signals and not the colour of the car, they are not afraid of crossings. And the others will go for cutlets. It's the same in trading.
That's original! So if I forecast that the price should rise from current levels in a future period, then it is not really a forecast? Or is it a false prediction? But what if I forecast the price movement of an asset with the accuracy of five digits in 1 min steps during 24 hours, then it is a real forecast?
Funny...
A revealed pattern will be so if it is realised 100% of the time.
That is a very narrow and incorrect interpretation of the concept of a pattern.
Anything below a hundred is a prediction with a probability of that many percent.
Who has a true 100% pattern?
The main thing in a pattern is to understand that there are causes and there are consequences. There is no question of 100% or any other figures.
Original! So if I predict that price should rise from current levels in a future period, it's not really a prediction? Or is it a false prediction? But what if I forecast the price movement of an asset with the accuracy of five digits in 1 min steps during 24 hours, then it is a real forecast?
That's funny...
And if I investigated a time series and found certain patterns in it and based on them built a regression model which gave a prediction, then what the hell is that? Predicting or finding a pattern?
Predicting car movement based on found patterns of car movement in the past and predicting car movement based on found patterns of car movement in the past and operation of turn signals are examples of true prediction and False prediction?