New trends in technical analysis. - page 9
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eh...:-)))
Western markets jumped up on Monday. The Dow and NASDAQ are up 11%, and they say this is the biggest one-day gain since 1933. Everyone is cheering and applauding!What (else) makes theoretical physics useful in practical terms is that you can see the behavior of a dynamic system near a tipping point. And you realise that there is nothing to be happy about: the system behaves this way not because it is driven by a powerful positive stimulus, but because it has become so "lax" that it is carried side to side by itself even under slight external influences. It became lax not because something inside it "fell apart", but because it fell into a near-critical state.
In condensed matter, a critical state is when small vibrations can develop into long-range vibrations involving the entire volume of matter.One can say that matter ceases to be "local" -- its individual parts can affect each other even at very large distances.
As you approach such points, the natural vibrations of the medium become slower and their amplitude increases. The free energy becomes a very flat function of the thermodynamic variables and therefore these variables can deviate strongly from the equilibrium position. If one takes water and heats it under pressure, near a critical point (T=374°C, P=218 atm) its compressibility tends to zero and the density fluctuations become so large that they render the water opaque -- this is the criticalopalescence. Strong density fluctuations (either large or small) are a signal that the medium is nearing a critical state.
Critical phenomena also exist in large discrete networks. Especially if the network has a complex topology, feedback loops and memory (i.e. the law of variations in a given node depends not only on its neighbours at a given point in time, but also on its past), as is the case of the stock market. As a result, the dynamics of such a network reflects not only external influences but also internal, intrinsic fluctuations, the nature of which cannot be understood without special research.
I do not know whether there are reliable studies of the phase diagram of stock markets, but there should almost certainly be critical points. And by influencing the markets (e.g. legislating, i.e. changing the parameters of the system), these points should be avoided. Again, it is hard to say how exactly markets will behave around such points, but it is clear that no stability can be expected here. This is a kind of critical stock market opalescence, and strong upward spikes are just as good as downward spikes for a sloppy system.
There have been some attempts to predict, within the framework of economics, how the passage near the tipping point will end (for example, there are attempts to detect log-periodic fluctuations in stock market indices and to link them to collapses). But of course one cannot seriously predict the future performance of stocks on the basis of their performance alone. In the real world, apart from internal fluctuations of the market as a dynamic system, there are also external influences: politics, wars, major climatic changes, etc. However, the dynamics characteristic of a near-critical state (assuming, for example, that the course of markets obediently reflects external influences) cannot be ignored either.
I'm not quite sure what kind of upward spike we're talking about...
But the fact that we are near a tipping point, I completely agree.
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Can I ask you a question - how are the attractor graphs produced? That is, where do the points come from?
Quite interesting, now the picture is clearer, but how is the last, yellow, attractor built?
If I cross the line and start asking uncomfortable questions, just don't answer.
Quite interesting, now the picture is clearer, but how is the last, yellow, attractor built?
If I cross the line and start asking uncomfortable questions, just don't answer.
First the decomposition is done, then the reverse is assembled, in the end we have the resultant, whose components have their own weights.
I've been quite far away from TAU and everything related to it for quite some time now, so I might (n)be incompetent in some matters, but I'll continue nevertheless :) .
And I apologize in advance for any possibly nerdy questions.
-- What's being decomposed?
-- Where do the yellow dots come from? Or is it the result of assembling after decomposition?