Predictive indicators - page 3
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You have to make your own system anyway. It can also be tested directly, without linking the results to the other one in any way.
I just have the impression that Yusuf wants to compare signals of two different systems without making an Expert Advisor of his own. I may be wrong.
You have to make your own system anyway.
It seems to me that it is for comparison that the system is secondary. What does a "predictive" indicator look like in principle? Three directions. The forecasted tail upwards (close sell, open buy), the tail - horizontal line (close all and sit out of the market), the tail downwards (close buy, open sell). And let this primitive most likely lead to disadvantages in trading, it is quite suitable for comparing with each other.
Although I myself do not always understand what Yusuf wants)
I'm sure it is within the framework of my proposed theory Universal Regression Model for market price forecasting and such an indicator was created based on it, I wanted to compare its readings and signals with existing ones, if any.
With what purpose? To get a prediction of the readings of existing predictive indicators?
Wouldn't it be better to compare it with the actual price?
We've already had a lot of trouble with these directions in the base branch. First one forecast, then another. Then Yusuf says that all predictions have come true. No comparison was made, no conclusions were drawn about the system (and there were none).
Totally agree... On top of that, another branch of Yusuf appears like mushrooms...
P.S. I have a feeling this reminds me of something... :-)))
There's something here, and in some of my other posts.
https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/127291/page5
Roughly the market is predictable, but that's where the other complexities come in. Choice of options among the probabilities. The degree of acceptable error. Triggering of the Expert Advisor, i.e. where and how to select entry/exit points when trading.
And it is also difficult to achieve good results on any single currency pair. If impulse of economic or speculative nature occurs at any currency pair, then almost all pairs react to it, but in different ways. Often illogically, because of the big traders' manipulations, as it was in the recent Japanese events, where on 16-17 March some funds at the time of low market liquidity with banks rollover, sold the market by billions artificially and illogically, and the next day the Japanese had to ask the G-7 for additional support, as $50 billion was not enough to restore the balance and equilibrium. And this happens little by little, almost every day. That is why the market is satisfactorily predictable in a crude way. Although, sometimes there are one hundred percent hits.
It is too primitive to make probabilistic forecasts using only one pair, and we will have some decent errors. We need a multivariate analysis for many currency pairs and not only for currencies. Cycles, spectrum, decay or expansion, seasonal dependencies, daily, hourly, sessional, news, dynamics, market temperature, etc. etc. You won't get a decent result, if you use a couple of curvatures for measurements and forecasts for one period, because the time-prospective component of market is always floating, i.e. in two-dimensional profile - frequency and amplitude, and it has a lot of harmonics... But at this level, there's not even a question of prognosis - just optimization mechanics, cooling range of the evening and night market, and the average narrow channel, so it's the same 2-3 dimensional changes again.
The only way to check what your indicator can do is to create an Expert Advisor based on it and run it on the history. Or work with its signals on a demo or microreal account. The comparison with signals of other systems is usually a meaningless waste of time and I'm not going to do that.
A wise suggestion.
Here is what I read from Yusuf's article
The market price takes into account everything that can affect it...
The market price takes into account all the factors affecting it according to the law of supply and demand, and data on its change over time is necessary and sufficient to predict it.
Nikkei lost almost 20% after the Japanese earthquake. Do you think it is possible to predict the movement of the Japanese market between March 11 and March 15, based on past prices?
The law of supply and demand? I don't deny it exists. If only we could predict how supply and demand will change in the future... The Japanese woke up on March 11th and decided to create a big supply of nikkai. Simple :)
Nikkei lost almost 20% after the Japanese earthquake. Do you think this Japanese market movement between March 11th and March 15th could have been predicted by looking at past prices?
Yusuf, judging from the picture, the forecast line changes its position on every bar. Such an indicator cannot be called predictive, much less predictive in terms of targets. You have an ordinary trend indicator, probably a very good one. It is very simple: if 3 lines connect, open a position, if they do not, close it. If nothing good comes out, use several lines as filter or trawl. Or use it together with another indicator. And predicting specific targets will lead you to a dead end.
https://c.mql5.com/3/3/EURUSD-M1-T50-08022011-900-1230.gif
Here I read from Yusuf's article
Nikkei lost almost 20% after the Japanese earthquake. Do you think this Japanese market movement between March 11th and March 15th could have been predicted by looking at past prices?
The law of supply and demand? I don't deny it exists. If only we could predict how supply and demand will change in the future...
It seems to me that Yusuf has gone from a scientific uncertainty to the reality of the foreign exchange market with little idea of what it is. Well, the man wanted to be very smart, educated and scientific. But in real trading, with real money, I think he would have quickly started to understand everything when he had lost a few deposits.
In general all fortune-tellers, doctors, candidates, fortune-tellers, politicians and other prognosticators should be sent for an internship on Forex, and of course with their own real money. Then it would be immediately visible and assessed in their own pockets if they can do it or are just fooling the people or themselves.