Where is the line between fitting and actual patterns? - page 6
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....In my opinion, wave analysis is the best invention to fool the general public.....
I don't understand you... :о) The quote, the comment and the question have nothing to do with me personally. Speak directly.
Where is the line between fitting and actual patterns?
Do you have anything to say on the subject?
The thermometer, speedometer, calipers do not predict the future!
P.S. If we are talking about predictions and forecasts, for example, will the adjusted TS lose money or earn something?
For the record on the right of off-topic: sports prediction, for example, the result of a football match is limited to calculating the probabilities of all possible goals. And this is more than enough. It's almost impossible to predict the exact outcome. But you don't have to. Knowing the probabilities and comparing them with the odds in the bookies or on the stock exchange you can make a decision about a bet.
For even more information it is a secret, that football matches are the most accurately predicted compared to other sports. The Poisson distribution can be used to show how many goals a team is likely to score, and with what probability, by looking at statistics from previous matches (there is a statistically very high agreement, which is why it is known as the Football probability distribution). The probabilities of a goal for each team can be calculated with a simple multiplication of the probabilities of an exact score: 0:0, 0:1, 0:2 ... 9:10, 10:10 etc. All other outcomes, the spreadsheet, are already derived from the table for exact scores by adding the probabilities for that very outcome. But in order not to get a margin of error, the statistics for the teams should be taken only for the part when the team played with the current squad and with the current coach.
Of course a dilemma arises: if bookmakers or those who offer to bet on the outcomes of events (of course with a spread - there are no fools among them) and those who take these very bets, can easily calculate the probabilities and correspondingly fair odds, and with a very high accuracy, then how can we make money here? Theoretically the spread and the exchange commission should take all the potential profit, right? In practice it is not always so. One can only make money on those who do not know the Terrier and have never heard of Poisson's probability distribution. They bet on favourites (stronger or luckier teams). Mathematicians, on the other hand, bet on outsiders (the weaker team or just unlucky, e.g. because of the draw) or on the outcome of the match in favour of the outright winner or a draw. This results in bets on both sides being covered. Bookmakers and bettors artificially underestimate odds on favourites and overestimate odds on underdogs. Moreover, the closer the match starts, the lower odds on favourites and higher on outsiders (the mailing reaches suckers). As a result, everyone who knows the maths firsthand earns. And all those looking for online systems of fast earnings on sports betting type: martin, sweepstakes, corridors, etc., as well as subscribing to private feeds - lose.
That's the kind of pie.
As for the financial markets, compared to football, things are much more complicated in terms of predictions. And there are no unspoken rules between insiders, market makers and competent traders either. But the essence is approximately the same: those who are familiar with methodology of testing TS for lousiness with the help of forward testing can earn at the expense of those who are not familiar with this very methodology and looking for methods of fast earnings: martingales, avalanches, sending signals, etc.
Again, going back to the already repeatedly used in this forum about N pips per day. If a sucker bets on the favourite (low odds, by analogy small take and big moose) then he gets his N pips a day for a while. If the mathematician bets on the underdog (big take, small moose), then he has a drawdown most of the time. But, when an elk triggers, i.e. the outsider wins, it turns out that expectation is positive only for mathematicians, i.e. small loss is more than covered by a large profit. Hence, conclusions should be drawn whether one has N pips per day steadily up to a certain point, or N*x, unstably, but with more than enough.
Where is the line between fitting and actual patterns?
Do you have anything to say on the subject?
...I was coming to you with the same question because nothing was said, and I am fine with chocolate.
I am not familiar with them and am looking for quick ways to make money: martingales, avalanches, signal mailing, etc..
101%.. Any averaging and relying on a smart uncle is only a matter of time before the plum...
...well, I was asking the same question, because nothing was said. And I'm fine with chocolate.
I already told you. Any system is a fit, as long as the price does not change as a result of your actions.
There are no edges.
You bind the system to some characteristics of the market. If these characteristics change slowly, the system can work successfully for a while.
Well then, take a pardon :o)... Totally agree. And that's all.
... And sometimes we would like the price to change as a result of our actions :o)
I have already answered you. Any system is a fit, unless the price changes as a result of your actions.
There are no edges.
And if one uses information in one's TS that clarifies what one is doing that results in a price change, is it a fit or is there an edge?