Counter positions: self-deception or subtle tool? - page 5

 
Swetten:

What if the price goes the wrong way?

We are not discussing where the price will go. This is just a specific situation where netting will result in zero and double profit with locks.

How often it will happen - it is a matter of strategy, but with netting such a strategy is impossible from the beginning. Of course one can lose on it, but we are only talking about the applicability of this type of strategy.

 
Andrei01:

We are not discussing where the price will go. This is just a specific situation where netting will result in zero and double the profit with locks.

How often this will happen is a matter of strategy, but with netting such a strategy is impossible from the outset.


I agree.
 
Andrei01:
The trick is that if you open to one side you don't get a total zero as with netting of opposite positions. And with lots you can still get double profit, even if netting is zero. The arithmetic here is pretty straightforward.

If the price goes in one direction, then after closing the first one in the plus, you will get 0, and with the further movement already minus. And the maths is really simple, opening to one side with a net probability of success of 50%, opening to both sides, the probability of both to close in profit = 25%, that is 2 times lower.


Sveta, about your question, I said at the top that he may lock, as long as he doesn't mess up the Expert Advisors' algorithms.

 
Techno:
If the price goes in one direction, then after closing the first one in the plus, you will get 0, and with the further movement already minus. And the maths is really simple, opening to one side with a net probability of success of 50%, opening to both sides, the probability of both to close in profit = 25%, i.e. 2 times lower.
The answer is above.
 
Andrei01:
The answer is above.
That's not an answer for me. How about we then consider a situation where we went wabanking, got a 1000% profit and went to live on an island?) Stop laughing, we are not looking at situations but probabilities
 
Techno:
Stop laughing, we are not looking at situations, we are looking at probabilities
Isn't probability related to situations and TC strategy?
 
Andrei01:
Isn't probability related to situations and TC strategy?
Let's say 1 situation is very remotely related to the statistics (from which we calculate the probability) of 10,000 situations.
 
Techno:
Let's say 1 situation is very remotely related to the statistics (from which we calculate the probability) of 10,000 situations.
What makes you think we are talking about only 1 situation in 10,000?
 
Andrei01:
What makes you think we are only talking about one situation per 10,000?
Of course, we have one situation to an unknown number of situations...
 
Techno:
Of course, we have one situation to an unknown number of situations here...
What makes you think that this situation is repeated with exactly 1/10000 probability for all possible TC types?