EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 2) - page 1681

 

Here is the EURUSD forecast for next week, by day. The predicted value was(O+H+L+C)/4. I don't recommend to take it seriously, because the method is new and I haven't even tested it on the historical data, so I decided to test it online. Let's see what happens.

Forecast

Expectations(O+H+L+C)/4:

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
1.35124 1.35431 1.35323 1.35185 1.35049

95% interval (just in case - with a 95% probability, future values(O+H+L+C)/4 will be in this interval) (min-max):

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
1.30455 1.30770 1.30560 1.30450 1.30432
1.39797 1.40052 1.39983 1.39744 1.39560

30% interval (min-max):

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
1.34294 1.34591 1.34458 1.34377 1.34228
1.35962 1.36242 1.36159 1.36038 1.35901

Evaluation of trends

The probability that the beginning of a strong downtrend is "missed" at the time of the forecast is 69.7%. I have not yet made an assessment of the trend characteristics.

Trading decisions

I have not finished this part yet, we should look at the forecast as a whole. For now we can focus on the forecast of the average.

PS: Picture

 
At the moment the Eurodollar exchange rate is 1.3505
 
margaret:
At the moment the eurodollar exchange rate is 1.3505
there is another opinion http://www.alpari.ru/ru/charts/ (and http://www.bloomberg.com/). It doesn't really matter, we need to look at the direction.
 
Farnsworth:
there is another opinion http://www.alpari.ru/ru/charts/ (and http://www.bloomberg.com/). It doesn't really matter, you have to look at the direction.
I am looking at the current rate and it is now 1.3525
 
torgus:
Looking for point 2.

How can you tell if it's point 2?
 
margaret:
I'm looking at the exchange rate at the moment and it's 1.3525
I guess I'm behind the times. So, are people trading at the weekend? And who supplies the quotes - just the DCs, i.e. no banks? Out of curiosity - where can I see the weekend quotes?
 
Farnsworth:
I guess I'm behind the times. So, do people trade on weekends? And who supplies the quotes - just the DCs, i.e. without the banks? Just out of curiosity, where can I see the weekend quotes?

It's already been said everywhere.

http://www.xe.com/

either

http://www.actionforex.com/wkst/saxobank/quotes.htm

 
ZZZEROXXX:

how do you define this point 2?

In a bull market, after a strong rise, there are sharp falls after which the rise continues; the fall is point two.

In a bear market, it's the other way around.

An example of a bullish wolf formation.

 
torgus:

In a bull market, after a strong rise, there are sharp falls after which the rise continues; the fall is point two.

In a bear market, it's the other way around.

What about 3 peaks or lows?
 
-DEN-:

It's already been said everywhere.

http://www.xe.com/

or

http://www.actionforex.com/wkst/saxobank/quotes.htm

Yes, forex itself is a big illusion, but the tricksters keep coming. Apparently, the speculative superstructure over the system itself has been spun up with terrible force. Or that is more likely, some figures generate the flow by themselves. There is a strong feeling that the price of quotations at the weekend is not worth a penny.