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The topic was raised and I looked at the topic of the top manager's Grail.
The question arises: why in most cases as soon as it seems that the trader has found the Grail, the fortune turns backwards?
The maximum drawdown is almost equal to the initial depo, in such conditions it is difficult to call the TS the Grail.
If I had not replenished the deposit, the balance/equity curve would have returned to its starting point and if I had started the trading when I activated the monitoring, the deposit would have been already killed.
Raised the topic, looked at the Grail of the top-trader.
The question arises: why in most cases as soon as a trader appears to have found the Grail, the fortune turns back?
(yyyyyyy) :)
Thinking about it myself, but there is progress - the last grail lived almost a month and a half. :)
The question arises: why, in most cases, just when it seems that the trader has found the Grail, does fortune turn backwards?
i sometimes get the feeling that people don't do any tests on history... i look at one year and then it looks good... so it's like the grail ))))))
on 10 years if without optimisation it works (equi goes into the sky ) it's a grail..everything else sucks....
I sometimes get the feeling that people don't do history tests at all...
The results of the tests for the last 2 years have been posted here by the topicstarter, and everything seems to be fine:
600 deals is something ... quality n/a true, but obviously he knew what he was doing?
The topstarter posted the test results for the last 2 years here, everything seems to have been fine:
600 deals - that's something ... quality n/a true, but obviously he knew what he was doing?
That's what I mean...2 years is no indicator...especially the last 2 years...you know why...in the last 2 years everything works....
I sometimes get the feeling that people don't do any tests at all on the story...look at one year and another one seems to be OK...and then it's like a grail ))))))
for 10 years, if it works without optimisation (Equi goes into the sky) it is a grail...everything else is rubbish....
on 10 years without optimization it's not a grail, it's a fairy tale for children.
and the history tests are mostly needed to write essays in economics college. Because no one has yet been able to estimate the probability that the pattern found will continue to work over a more or less long period of time.
at 10 years without optimisation is not a GRAAL, it's a fairy tale for children.
and yes and no.... there are things that work all the time - but the other issue is that the returns are not graal...
if over-optimisation is required - it's already a road to nowhere...the reason is very simple...when to over-optimise ? ... if you find an answer to this question then reoptimization will not be necessary ...
the maximum I've managed to get and what little works (despite heavy drawdowns and small returns) is a simple TS on scales and volumes....did it more than 3 years ago - the first one doesn't need re-optimization at all...
the first one didn't need reoptimization at all... but I based it on old data... i.e. the equity was tested and worked on new data (3 years ago)...
the second one was optimized... Both had equity drawn in pips (spreads are included) and the lot was fixed... but the drawdown )))))
i know what i'm talking about... 2 years is no indicator... don't get too euphoric...
about the grail - for me, the grail is the hidden patterns found (or something similar) that always work... equi goes to the sky... without any optimizations, etc... on any amount of history... that's the grail for me...too bad it doesn't exist)))) but let's keep looking ))))))