Probability, how do you turn it into a pattern ...? - page 25

 
moskitman >>:

может "большое количество испытаний" имеется ввиду первоначальный шквал из сделок?


It turns out that this is the case, but which event probability is calculated?

What should we calculate? Should we repeat the opening of all orders in the same direction or should we reverse directions or only open on selected pairs?

i have a suspicion that the author calculates the probability of movement on certain pairs, then the logic would be that the market is generally correlated, but some instruments react at one time and others at another, meaning the peak of activity, due to different time zones and banks work, which is why the cycle time is less than one day.

this is why the drawdowns at the shooters are compensated by opening orders in the direction of the movement at the non-shotting pairs in the hope that the latter will follow the general market movement
 
moskitman писал(а) >>

do you want to sit up to the total (+)?
imho, there is simply no other way out, for I have locked in my pluses and added 0.2 to my sagging ones in the morning (just for fun) now -2,648.43 )))))
the second part of the Marlesonian ballet was left to Mr. Bernoulli.


Don't know what I want... I'm just looking, I won't lock, top up or close anything. I don't know what I want to do, I just watch, I don't want to lock anything and I won't lock anything. I did not look at the charts. Again, it's all based on the "start" point.

 
Turka писал(а) >>


It turns out that this is the case, but which event probability is calculated?

What should we calculate? Should we reopen all orders in the same direction or reverse directions or open only on selected pairs?

i have a suspicion that the author calculates the probability of movement on certain pairs, then the logic would be that the market is correlated in its entirety, but some instruments react at one time and others at another, meaning the peak activity, due to different time zones and banks operation, which is why the cycle time is less than one day.

this is why the drawdowns at the shooters are compensated by opening orders in the direction of the movement at the non-shotting pairs in the hope that the latter will follow the general market movement


I think the probability is calculated as this



1) (+ 7) / (- 3) = (+) ...... - cycle completed
2) (- 3) / (+ 7) = (-) a compound combination emerging in the period (talk about composite numbers) to the other variants with stable % pattern .... - action of the second cycle.
3) (- 7) / (+ 3) = (-) normal combination arising in the period (talk about composite numbers) to other variants with a stable % pattern .... - action of the second cycle.
4) (-5 ) / (+ 5) = (+/- 0) .... - result the cycle is complete.

Question, what is the nature of the distribution of the frequency of occurrence of the 4 results in a period relative to each other?

Answer: STRENGTH TO PERIODIC STABILIZATION

 
dentraf >>:


Помойму расчитываеться вероятность вот этого



1) (+ 7) / (- 3) = (+) ...... - результат цикл завершен
2) (- 3) / (+ 7) = (-) составная комбинация возникающая в периоде (разговор про составные числа) к остальным вариантам с устойчивым % закономерностью .... - действие второй цикл.
3) (- 7) / (+ 3) = (-) нормальная комбинация возникающая в периоде (разговор про составные числа) к остальным вариантам с устойчивым % закономерностью .... - действие второй цикл.
4) (-5 ) / (+ 5) = (+/- 0) .... - результат цикл завершен.

Вопрос, какова природа распределения частоты появления 4х результатов в периоде относительно друг друга?

Ответ: СТРЕМЛЕНИЕ К ПЕРИОДИЧЕСКОЙ СТАБИЛИЗАЦИИ


what will it look like?
 
maybe just program the idea then? :)

here the author only needs to ask, would it not be easier to open orders in the first phase by currencies according to the time zones that apply at the time of opening orders?
why open the quid when the japs are trading, let the japs open with their neighbours according to time zones :)
and so on all sorts of trivia
 
Turka >>:


как это будет выглядеть?

1. you'll lock in +
2. double the -
3. wait a couple of months.
4. blow it out

 
Turka >>:
может тогда просто запрограммировать эту идею? :)
...

the first part is not difficult, but the second part is never revealed to us!

 
Turka писал(а) >>


what will it look like?


This is my assumption and nothing more: suppose we got variant 2 in the first cycle then we open positions to variant 3 in the second cycle and if the author's statement is true that the nature of the distribution of frequency of occurrence of 4 results in a period relative to each other tends to periodic stabilization then we will destroy minus trades from the first cycle as a result
 

and if so... Open on all to buy (first cycle). After one hour, if we have not reached the planned profit, we watch the down/up leaders. We buy ALL leaders (second cycle). One hour passes. If we have not reached the planned total take in two cycles, we watch the downgrade/upgrade leaders (ignoring the second cycle's poses). Buy ALL leaders (third cycle). After one hour, if you have not taken the total take in each of the three cycles, we look at the downside/upside leaders (ignoring the second and third cycle pose). We buy all leaders ... etc.

 
Neveteran >>:

Да.
Иначе не будет стартовых условий, для дальнейших действий.