Probability, how do you turn it into a pattern ...? - page 6

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Go for it. I have (some in the know) a similar line of thinking in terms of the futility of looking for reasons, and I also see the current moment as the basis of trading (i.e. not forecasting).
 

Neveteran, please give a concrete example of your method. On the chart. The timeframe is up to you

 
VictorArt >>:


Если стопы не используются ("начинаю работать с отрицательными" - я это понял так, что не используются), то вынесет на ближайшем тренде.


Stops are physically handled by the robot, but this is a balance stop, not a physical level.
By reaching a positive balance, due to open and hedged positions (from this basket) I have the amount of working margin to work out negative open positions and use it accordingly. The main trick is the execution time of orders, it varies significantly depending on the balance.

Look at the acceleration of the system in the Masha's stack. It reaches the positive balance even though there are negative positions.
Where did she go?
 
Techno >>:

Neveteran, приведи пожалуйста конкретный пример своего метода. На графике. Таймфрейм на твое усмотрение


Let's do it tomorrow, I'm sleepy ........
 
Neveteran >>:


Посмотрите разгон системы на стэйте Маша, она достигает положительного баланса именно на безоткате несмотря на отрицательные позиции.
И куда ее вынесло?

For now, a series of losing trades, which is not certain to last less than the previous series of profitable trades.
Misha, however, in the same place:)

 
On a flat move back and forth, martin works great, but if you get unlucky with martin on a gap and the total plus does not cover the total minus on the doubled positions, what then?
 
Neveteran >>:


Давайте просто подойдем к пониманию происходящего, как к очень примитивному движению, не отвлекаясь на предпосылки и причины.

Can I ask you a question? ))) What should I do if my Expert Advisor sinks and does not sink? ))) And how does your theory help in this? So far, I understand that if the EA is losing, then you must take this inevitability as given and as a known fact that sooner or later your rich uncle will die, and will leave you a huge fortune as an inheritance. ))) In general, mathematical logic is the postulate that if you take a deliberately false statement as a basis, you can prove absolutely any truth. Let's think together what is the probability of meeting a dinosaur in the street if we all synchronize our watches and leave the house at the same time. The starting conditions would be the same for all of us and 50% of us would be able to see a long extinct reptile. In general, gentlemen, we should snack more often. )))
 
artikul >>:
Можно вопрос? ))) Что делать если советник то сливает, то не сливает? ))) И как Ваша теория может в этом помочь? Я пока понимаю так, если советник слил, то эту неизбежность Вы примите как данность и как закономерность того события, что рано или поздно умрет Ваш богатый дядюшка и оставит Вам в наследстов огромное состояние. ))) А вообще в математической логике есть такой постулат, что если в качестве базиса взять заведомо ложное утверждение, то можно доказать абсолютно любую истину. Давайте вместе подумаем, какова вероятность встретить на улице динозавра, если мы все синхронизируем часы и одновременно выйдем из дома. Стартовые условия будут у всех одинаковы и 50% испутуемых в периоде неуклонно смогут лицезреть давно вымерших рептилий. Вобщем господа, надо чаще закусывать. )))

;)

 
Neveteran >>:


Примите к рассмотрению минутный график...... какие тенденции Вы сможите отследить на нем?
Ответ - НИКАКИХ

I don't follow the trend on the minute. Only H1 to D1. And everything works.

 
MetaDriver >>:

;)


Signaling the market into 3 components A) standard (medium-volatile) trend, B) ultra-volatile and C) no-trend

Your Expert Advisor works fine at (A) with one setting, it works well at (B) with a wide range and trawls perfectly at (C)
But it will never be able to work using the same (universal) settings with all three movements simultaneously. You'll never be able to guess the start or duration of the bounce, the range of swing. It cannot be done. And no indicators will give you a clear signal to switch settings.

I, on the other hand, have fundamentally moved away from this market defragmentation, to a place where you don't have to navigate all that.

I achieve this by the simplest trick, I set the rules, I create conditions for managing the timing of the execution of my open positions.

I act by the method of elimination, based on the balance sheet liquidity of the seeded positions to the current profitable ones.

It's all about the conditions I create ........ to get results

I agree that in addition to the choice of a method there is the possibility to create conditions to do it.
I create conditions (different conditions) and that is my advantage over you, because you only adjust to the existing circumstances, and I create the rules in which these circumstances work in my favour.
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