Thoughts on some of the absurdity of multi-currency analysis. - page 37
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Unfortunately, not everything has been described and said. There is still a lot to discuss. In particular the calculation of degrees of influence in a formal way. So far abstractions
Abstraction....
This is not a Russian language forum
Everything changes every moment. Including the ratios. I don't consider what you got to be pre-emptive. Of course, you will get the signals in time, but there will be no real anticipation.
Try making your indexes into synthetics. Will it run ahead of the natural pair? How often? Because this effect doesn't always happen. Although, it is understandable. Semi-criminal deals are not always made.
I think in order to get a real preemptive effect, we should abandon the major pairs altogether. Only exotics should be used. Only it is not available anywhere in its entirety.
But then the sense of complicating your life by calculating the coefficients if you already get the signals in time?
thoughts of some of the absurdity of some of the thoughts...
pardon the blatant trolling of your, Valera, nonsense.
It's easy to just say it's nonsense......... If you say it's nonsense, then why bother writing in the first place?
Ok, I'll explain: there are goals and there are means to achieve them, with the objectives, I think everything is more or less clear - in the end to make money, and the means to achieve these goals each have their own.
In your posts, I personally do not see even the slightest hint of progress towards the goal - just rambling "thoughts aloud" (and almost in every thread) no specific questions or specific answers.
That's what I call bullshit - understandable?
Open MSWord and write down your thoughts, if that makes it easier for you to think.
Regarding incremental moduli. If you analyse them, you can see that they are not the same for 2 stochastic processes - SB and Forex. This is probably the manifestation of thick distribution tails of the quotes. It is necessary to turn this difference into an advantage when earning on stochastic processes. Perhaps one should first isolate, obtain or reduce to a normal distribution if one knows how to take advantage of the normal distribution and how to profit from it. You can work with a single row, you have to think... I was thinking about a multicurrency normal distribution. After all, information on the currency is stored in all pairs it belongs to. It means we may get distribution not by pairs, but by currency - the composite of pairs, and work with it, then shift to pairs again through currency analysis, having derived its useful component. Basically, this may be applied to a fund. By selecting instruments by groups (a certain analog of currencies), then creating synthetic symbols (making a certain analog of currency pairs), trading the same pair trading or its similarity in the future. This is where, by the way, Leonid's spread indicators come from, the spread plays an important role there too. It is even possible to do an additional analysis of changes in spreads, but spread trading is important in commodity markets. Or even so, after the composite normal distribution we make a synthetic distribution for a synthetic currency from 2 currencies and then compare the real pair with a thick-tailed distribution and the synthetic pair with an already normal distribution obtained from the analysis of 2 currencies.
Actually, in SB we need to work exactly with distributions, with the dynamics of these pattern distributions (i.e. moments of appearance of certain conditions), by grouping patterns (like currency pairs and currencies) so as to obtain the final desired distribution with desired properties that change slowly. Amen. I forgot to add that to do this (as far as SB is concerned) you would need to get multiple games from the one game you are currently playing. to look for patterns in each of those games separately. It's not logical, but that way you get incoherent patterns for here and now, not for somewhere very rarely in the future. And the distribution of composite with necessary properties is built from the patterns of these sets of games existing here and now.
It is even possible to try it this way. Obtain a distribution composite of currencies from their derivatives, then plot the difference between envelope lines of two currency distributions and obtain a synthetic distribution from it by returning the signs of the natural pair or by returning the signs of the balance line between two currencies. Some people define volatility as the length in pips over a selected period of time. When constructing indices, commonly known and static formulas calculate the index over time. But we need dynamics, so indices should be built from increments, i.e. from the size of movements, not from static absolute values of quotes. However the liquidity of currency pairs is different. Accordingly, this means that instruments pass different ways during one and the same period of time (it doesn't matter whether this way was up or down, 1 tick is from 1 to 5, 10 points, and one point is a small step of the way, and it doesn't matter where it was taken. Therefore, it would be better not to calculate indexes from time (which has a scatter of path lengths), but from equal path lengths. In brief, we build equal-volume (better it is equal to the number of points on every tick) bars, on all symbols, then create index. For example, we take bars with 500 ticks, take the beginning and the end of these bars and calculate the increments between ABS (open-close) or high-low. From these increments we build an index, and then we take bars of 1000 ticks and build an index from these increments. And so on. We calculate from the end - from the last tick back to the past, or at least from the end of the last minute or hour bar. So we construct equal-volume bars with modulation at first, i.e. 500 ticks per 1000 ticks per 2000 .... And so on. As a result, we will build distributions of currencies from equal-volume bars of compound instruments where the basis is not the uniformity of time, but the uniformity of distance travelled. And all the above will be to compare exactly these distributions m/o currencies. PS: The more pairs of one currency are included in the calculation of that currency, the more accurately and more smoothly and more closely a final distribution line can be gathered on the currency index .
Hello. I think it has long been known that instruments have a different influence on each other, when calculating the index the weights of influence pairs are different, how did you calculate the weights, in fact it is silly to think that some krone affects the quid more than the euro or the un or something else more common. I will try to attach a picture later with a full (at the level of understanding the idea) description of the essence, but it needs equal-volume bars, and the number of instruments in the index calculation should be as large as possible to get the transition of quantity to quality.
Some people say yes, how can you go from time to equal volumes, then how can you synchronise pairs? You don't have to synchronize them, or rather not, you should, but no more than on normal time bars. The depth of the time sliding window will not change and will be equal for all symbols, but the number of points of this sliding window will be different for different pairs, and vary. Correspondingly "accumulative energy inside a segment (among equals) with a greater number of points will have a greater possibility to influence" . and hormonics will have not only master and slave, but also the forces of these sights and slaves.