Thoughts on some of the absurdity of multi-currency analysis. - page 20
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стоп на 10 пипсов??? я в шоке! - ну это же 100% слив!, разве что пытаться поймать по одному пункту с каждого ордера,
who puts a stop of 10~20p has a take not 1p but ∞ZS: they say "knowledge is power", I'm already afraid that such knowledge will not ruin a novice trader:O) :)
I know a trading strategy based on catching a strong move
a strong move is defined as a rare move, we catch the moment the move starts
so a loss is set at 10-20 pips, a strong move is defined as at least 70 pips.
the number of profitable trades is less than loss-making ones, but the strategy is profitable
Matemat always reminds you of that
есть совершенно разные торговые стратегии
я знаю торговую стратегию, основанную на ловле сильного движения
сильное движение там определяется как редкое движение, ловится момент начала движения
поэтому лосс там ставиться на 10-20 п, сильное движение определяется как не менее 70 п.
количество прибыльных сделок - меньше убыточных, но стратегия прибыльна
if you know such a strategy, how do you detect this strong movement? what is the signal?
"Хорошо, давайте применим «бритва оккама», тогда попробуйте доказать, что «высокая» корреляция между евробаксом и нздбаксом – это не следствие влияния именно баксовой составляющей" -
The quid component
That is, in any pair, for example the Eurobucks you do not know whether the rise was caused by events in the Eurozone or whether it was due to the US.
That is, if 2 pairs are correlated and have the dollar in their composition, then most likely ("Occam's razor") they are correlated because of the events in the USA, as the coincidence in the changes of currencies was found exactly with the participation of the dollar.
If the events took place in Greece but not in the USA the correlation specially calculated for dollar pairs is of little importance for making forecasts.
even if the correlation coefficient is 0.6, it may not be noise.
noise is in the range -0.4 - 0.4
It's working, I've seen the stats for the year.
but it's not automated.
I've tortured him - fingers in the door, vodka poured and no snacks - he won't say a word.
It's a question-question-question- entry point criterion.
they, bankers, are all so secretive
as for the quid component, i wrote above - either the euR went down or the quid rose, but i can find an explanation for the euR's fall (Greece) and not for the quid's rise.
As for trading in rare events, I recommend Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness" - an absolutely brilliant book.
Taleb is a statistician and a trader, one of those who make money on crises.
Soros and others recorded his speech at Davos.
if you need it, i can download it for you.
A little on and off:
I am trying to find a day strategy for EUR/USD, but for work with EA, not in direction of a short-term trend, but for the duration, in order to find the time, after which EA should fix profit of the placed order - i.e. in the simplest approximation EA should actually search for an extremum on the current chart but orient it not on the chart top, but on a part of period, i.e. time - here is an intricate task :) . So far, when I deal with the graphical analysis during the active movement of EUR/USD, I try to identify the movement trends of Gold/USD. Moreover, it is not the trend of Gold/USD and not a short-term change of the trend of Gold/USD that is of interest, but the dependence of the change rate between Gold/USD and EUR/USD - there is a definite dependence in the change rate. On the one-minute chart you can clearly see that EUR/USD completely stops moving when the tail of the Gold/USD chart starts swinging up and down and usually just forms a horizontal segment on "(sometimes the terminal shows a non-horizontal line in this area - let's consider it as filtration) - it may be the signal to fix the profit for the open order and after that the Expert Advisor should analyze the current trend again. I think the current trend of EUR/USD should not be analysed in an EA at all, but the pending orders should be simulated, i.e. we should not set pending orders, but our EA should simply analyse the current chart value (close the order), expecting a +10-10 pips mark (figure 10 is an example). I.e., I am again looking for a strategy with loss limitation, rather than making super profits in a few days :))))))
It's in this light - in light of the analysis of the rate of change in the gold price and the rate of change in the currency pair - that I see the point in multicurrency analysis. :)
Gold is not a currency
In the short term, what I described in the previous post, gold can be seen as "indicator showing the dollar"