Thoughts on some of the absurdity of multi-currency analysis. - page 19
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I agree with the thesis that multicurrency analysis is insufficient
and about the adequacy of intermarket analysis
how can you analyse the eurobucks without taking oil and gold markets into account?
тенденция на понижение евробакса, действительно, могло вызвать наступление насморка у главного шамана острова Папуа-Новая Гвинея
а также, вполне возможно, существует еще 854 других причин о которых мы не знаем и которые "на самом деле" вызвали появление такой тенденции
но, применяя принцип бритвы Оккама, все-таки более вероятнее...
но существует ОЧЕНЬ БОЛЬШАЯ ВЕРОЯТНОСТЬ того, что, ....
ок?
OK!But please note that you yourself said the word probability! i.e. what kind of analysis can we talk about? probabilistic? then the results will be like we have: either Greece made the euro weaken or the quid got stronger! :)))
You see, people tend to connect the events that confirm their rightness, even if the events in fact have no power, look how many admonitions to the trader in terms of stamina and psychology, how many economic news channels have a "bird's eye view" - a complete picture of a reasonable analysis of currency pairs movements, but if you look closely, it's just vanity. I could agree at once, that all this fuss makes the market go in one direction or the other - but in reality these intraday/week trends are just "trading on the noise", the real change of the trend is still an economic one, but it is expressed in one currency's liquidity, just remember, how it was when everybody forecasted an irreversible collapse of the dollar and the departure of all countries from the dollar area? And now, if America (the largest oil importer) starts to procure raw materials abroad, a kind of currency deficit emerges, which leads to a strong market movement.
I've never heard of any trading system which gives a trading result without a single error on the TDPP.
unless of course it's an inside job.
for my example - either the euro weakened or the dollar gained
i showed you why the euro may have weakened but you still haven't shown why the dollar may have gained strength :)))
When everybody yelled about leaving the dollar zone they all yelled that there is no real alternative to the dollar and that the quid is in no danger (some even said that the quid has another 5-10 years of cloudless life). in general I think that in the usa they are not idiots either and they still have time to fix it
and I don't mind the rest.
Does this call into question the validity of intermarket analysis?
на мой взгляд на форексе любой вид торговой системы носит вероятностный характер, потому что задача системы - обеспечить статистическое преимущество на протяжении достаточно длительного периода (на ПДДП)
The only exception is trading in the flat market, with minimum risk, but minimal profit, and a reasonable allocation of funds.) - The only exception is trading on the flat, the minimum risk, but the yield is minimal, with a reasonable allocation of funds.- Regarding your example of a weaker euro because of the problems in Greece - I'm not going to look for an example of a stronger dollar, as the dollar is growing along with the gold price if you look at long time intervals, and in recent months gold has become more expensive.
- And the US should not worry about the fate of their currency - their currency is too intertwined with the global economy, and the US represents the strongest economy with the highest consumption of resources
Intermarket or multi-currency analysis? - I think the topic is about multi-currency analysis, and in terms of inter-market (commodity and stock market and currency market) - there are always patterns on the long term trend, but there are exceptions too - the same wars - both economic and real.
сильное движение евро обязательно отражается на нзд, там не просто корреляция, там сильная корреляция
другое дело, что падение не пропорционально
это был пример
замени нзд на фунд
корреляция там еще сильнее
OK, let's apply "Occam's razor", then try to prove that the "high" correlation between Eurobucks and NZDbucks is not a consequence of the influence of the quid component specifically.
In general correlation is not equal to 0.9 to put it mildly, I got it in the region of 0.5 at the moment.
As for the poundbucks, that is a different story, the correlation is obvious due to objective circumstances, due to the high degree of integration between the economies of the Eurozone and the UK. However, even in view of this high degree of integration, it is clear that the events in Greece do not affect the Eurozone as much as the UK economy due to the non-global implications. The correlation between the 2 pairs stems from the common factors affecting both economies in the same way.
Therefore with a correlation of 0.6, such an event can be considered as noise.
The correlation can only be calculated for the currency indexes, but even then, the results should not be trusted in any way
the less trades, the greater the probability of making profits? there is something so clever here that I don't get it. Explain
"Ok, let's apply Occam's razor, then try to prove that the "high" correlation between the eurobucks and nzdbucks is not due to the influence of the quid component" - I don't quite get that either. what is the quid component? the eur and kiwi are positively correlated in this economic component because they are classified as "risky currencies" and the dollar is a "failsafe currency". When investors have an increased appetite for risk, they withdraw assets from refuge currencies and invest in riskier currencies.
although for the kiwi there may be a more complex relationship via the Australian dollar
my kiwi-euro is 0.88-0.89 based on daily data from 556 observations
0.83-0.85 for 400 observations
even if the correlation coefficient is 0.6, it can't be noise
noise lies in the range -0.4 - 0.4
"прошу заметить, что чем совершенно большее количество сделок, тем больше вероятность получения убытков вместо прибыли" - не понял
чем меньше сделок - тем больше вероятность прибыли? тут что-то настолько умное, что я не понял. поясни пжлст
Let's look at a simple example: You open 3 orders within 20 minutes with a proven EA - with a target of 20 pips, well you won't set the stop loss at 10 pips, will you? Probably around 60-70 at least? And if your EA is mistaken, what will be the difference between the profit and closing the order at stop-loss - I think it will be 60 pips gain - 210 loss = -150 pips. Or better to open an order once with the same conditions and incur a loss once: 20 pips profit - 70 loss = -50 p ips. So the question is, what is better to have a hope to make a quick profit or to firmly limit your losses? According to my strategy, it is better to have a small profit with a high probability of success than to make frequent questionable trades, with the prospect of having a profit after adding up a lot of positive and negative trades.I basically put orders on EUR/USD overnight flat with big stoploss, during 2 months of trading only a couple of losing orders, maybe I'm wrong, if I make few trades on active trend my strategy will not work, I tried to actively trade EUR/USD during the day - in most cases day ended with total zero profit :(
it is all highly individual and not universal
This is the logic of a flat-out TS. Not everyone trades that way.
There are people here who put a stop loss exactly 10 pips (take - more).
Это логика флэтовой ТС. Не все так торгуют.
Тут есть люди, которые ставят стоп-лось именно 10 пипсов (тейк - больше).
Stop at 10 pips? I'm shocked! - i think this is a 100% loss! unless you try to catch one pip from each order but most brokerage companies will cancel such orders immediately. i may be wrong but a 10 pips stop may only make sense for JPY-independent pairs as the JPY often starts suddenly and i am very careful with JPY as i used to lose more than i earned :(Demi, what else could it be? As for the time being all real strategies are based on the traders' personal experience, I did it with my own actions, not with abstract advice about how to earn money without losing money.However, from free $ 5 for 3 months I have earned $ 34, and the first month I was looking for different strategies, I lost my deposit up to $ 2 and finally developed a strategy that began to really work.