Correlation of indicators - page 4

 
avatara >>:

философия. или правдоподобные рассуждения.

Так Пойя писал?

I may have written it, it's been a long time since I read it.

OK, no philosophy: forget cause and effect and just apply the formulas. They are quite practical.

P.S. 99% of what seekers and even practitioners here do is plausible reasoning. Do you have a fully deductive trading system (in the sense of its reasoning rather than practical working techniques)? Seems to me that's almost an unaffordable luxury for a fora.

 

Back to the challenge. Since there's already a battle of the Weisman-organists here ;)

There are two kinds of weapons. It is known that the probability of hitting the target by the first kind is 50/50.

The second one is 60.

The question is what is the probability of engaging the target if they are used simultaneously?

;)

 

See the Bayes formulas posted by alsu.

 

Yeah...

the likelihood of it, you name it.

ОК, без философии: забудем, где причина, а где следствие, и просто применяем формулы. Они вполне практические.

 

It has already been counted in that thread. When both guns are used once, simultaneously and independently, it is equal to the probability that at least one projectile reaches the target. The probability that both miss is (1-0.5)*(1-0.6) = 0.2. So the required probability is 0.8.

 
Mathemat >>:

Ее уже считали в той ветке. При однократном, одновременном и независимом применении обоих орудий она равна вероятности того, что хотя бы один снаряд достигнет цели. Вероятность того, что оба промахнутся, равна 0.5*0.4 = 0.2. Значит, искомая равна 0.8.

counted without Bayes, but by the full ring of events. That's one.

Two, the conclusion leads to a strange paradox.

But what does this mean, Michurinians should breed turkeys in experts?

 

No, there's a different logic there. Why don't we go straight there, since it's off-topic here?

I'm already there, writing back.

 
avatara писал(а) >>

Back to the challenge. Since there is already a battle of the Weisman-organists here ;)

There are two kinds of weapons. It is known that the probability of hitting the target with the first kind is 50/50.

The second is 60.

Question - what is the probability of hitting the target if they are used simultaneously?

;)

Why are you confused? I was talking about 30%. You're confusing "AND" with "OR". What do you want, quality or quantity?

 
Mathemat >>:

Нет, там другая логика. Может, лучше сразу туда перейдем, т.к. эдесь это оффтопик?

Correlates, however. ;)

I just wanted to emphasise that not everything is perceived as Sapienti sat.

Sometimes it is worth chewing on, for example - one-time, simultaneous and independent.

We are talking about correlation now.

No need to run away from here.

;)

 
Richie >>:

Что же вы всё путаете то, я про 30% говорил. Вы путаете "И" с "ИЛИ". Вам что нужно, качество или количество?

You called the subject "U"-unification.

And as you can see the defeat is already 80%.

And you (with "And") have only 30%.

Which is better? Better?

;)