Spread trading in Meta Trader - page 246
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There are moments there :) when it's hard not to make money.
I've probably made more of a mess on this one than in the six months of trading before. Well, as a result I ended up with a logical loss in gold/silver with no stops.
Probably, I will try again soon with almost or all automatons. We will see.
It never happens))
I sincerely wish you and all bettraders good luck (which is almost zero) and raise my glass today.... Here's to Kupalla (almost a lump in the fire).
Arbitrage. Not quasi )
Well, yes, I agree, but that kind of interest is only possible on small amounts. That is, in fact, we can talk about a kind of fixed income, without the possibility of growth.
However, with spread trading the liquidity is also quite limited for some contracts. Take the timber that Leonid writes about. There is nothing to catch there with large volumes.
Well, yes, I agree, but that kind of interest is only possible on small amounts. So, in effect, we are talking about a kind of fixed income, with no room for growth.
Yes, up to the arbitrage liquidity ceiling.
I think, if you catch this in forex (not inter-dealing arbitrage, of course), you will get a million easily and quickly.I think if you catch one of these in forex (not inter-dealer arbitrage of course), it's easy and quick to make a muzen.
But who will give it to you :) I think it's unlikely that a mere mortal can compete with banks and other big players feeding from this trough.
But who's going to let you do that :) I think it is unlikely that a mere mortal can compete with the banks and other big players feeding off this trough.
Don't make it up. Give it a try.
I wish you and all the Beltraders (of which there are almost zero) good luck and raise a glass today.... to Kupalla (almost a poo in the fire of the yadrid-madrid)
Useful information for lovers of seasonal spread trading. Below are excerpts from the latest seasonal review I wrote on behalf of Pantheon-Finance on agricultural commodities:
__________ Cattle horn. LE (July outlook )____________________
Today let's take a look at the expected seasonal movements of the instrument LE (cattle).
These (seasonal trends) are influenced by various factors: weather during the fattening period, size and condition of pastures, government procurement programmes, and prices of competing meat products such as poultry or pork. Consumer preferences at different times of the year also play a significant role. In the height of summer, LE seasonality is considered to be vague and weak, although demand for this "tool" can increase somewhat. It may reach its summer highs before mid-August!
Meanwhile, from the second decade of the month the up-trend of distant contracts spread of the analyzed instrument is clearly seen! Here is a graph of the average multi-year seasonal trends (5 and 15 year) of the LEV3 - LEZ3 spread (October - December):
After a slight Down-correction at the beginning of July-month - a seasonal rise in the spread until late July-early August is possible! As is customary and for a more specific assessment of the expected seasonal movement, let's look at the full buying statistics of the analyzed LEV3-Z3 cattle spread from July 9 to July 23 over the last 13 years, for example:
The percentage of profitable trades (+10/-3) as well as the average profit (0.663 - about +27 ticks) look quite satisfactory!
The current LEV3-Z3 spread situation is shown in the D-chart below. Yesterday there was already a small bounce from the middle line of the Bollinger indicator! And today the new daily candlestick is still oriented in a bullish direction:
The picture below shows the spread chart of the M30 timeframe.
The spread is quite volatile and liquid. Therefore, for small trading deposits it is better to wait for a pullback downwards and there, from the minimum of the day to evaluate a more profitable opportunity to buy the spread! To make the final decision, let's look at the dynamics of today's movement LEV3-Z3 at the American trading session (after 18:00 Moscow time). Good luck to all!
Properly worked off, both the oil and the juice... Soon on the real... Indicators - charged.
Useful information for lovers of seasonal spread trading. Below are excerpts from the latest seasonal review I wrote on behalf of Pantheon-Finance on agricultural commodities:
__________ Cereals, part 3 (soybeans)____________________
Usually by midsummer, soybean crops are in full bloom. The worry for stockists during this period diminishes. And from the third decade of July-month, prices (which were prone to rise in the preceding period) begin to fall seasonally! Below is a chart of the average multi-year seasonal (3, 5 and 10 year) trends for the September U-contract of soybeans:
Seasonal declines are expected almost to the end of the first decade of August-month! The blue price line shows a fairly satisfactory performance of last year, 2012's ZSU3 instrument.
Note that soybeans are quite capricious and volatile instrument. Local movements are highly dependent on weather conditions in growing regions. Therefore, we are not interested in a single instrument here, but in the calendar spread of nearby contracts: ZSU3 - ZSZ3 (September - November). The seasonality of the spread in the analyzed time interval is expressed more clearly, which is confirmed by the graph of multi-year averaged seasonal (3, 5 and 10 years) trends ZSU3-X3:
Recall that the blue price line shows a very decent last year's performance of the instrument, 2012!
Like a single instrument, the soybean spread is often quite volatile. For a more specific assessment of the expected seasonal movement, let's look at the complete statistics of the ZSU3-X3 spread sales, for example, from July 23 to August 5 for the last 13 years:
Percentage of profitable trades (+9/-4) as well as the average profit/loss ratio (+24 ticks /7 ticks on the ZS scale, 1 tick=$12.5 per spread contract) in the analyzed time frame looks quite satisfactory! Although, note that 2009 had an abnormally large (over 100 ticks) maximum drawdown.
In the current 2013 year, the ZSU3-X3 spread has shown strong activity in the last days! Only yesterday, the amplitude of price fluctuations was about $450 per contract!
The current situation of the analyzed spread is shown on the chart (Daily) below:
The spread is now at its local July seasonal high. At the upper boundary of the Bollinger indicator.
How likely is a seasonal Down reversal today-tomorrow? Note that yesterday there were very significant volumes in spread trades! Over six thousand trades on ZSU3-X3! Usually (see bar history on the chart) these volumes occur on reversal (or nearly reversal) candlesticks! Carefully watch the beginning of grain trades at the American session, and at the first signs of reversal we estimate the situation to sell the spread!
(I repeat, that the spread this year in the last days is very volatile! For very small securities deposits, in order to minimize the risk, it might make sense to consider selling the spread on the mini contract. In the well-known CQG platform it is set as XBS1U3).
Good luck to all!
Useful information for lovers of seasonal spread trading. Below are excerpts from the latest seasonal review I wrote on behalf of Pantheon-Finance on instruments from the metals group:
-----------------------------------------
... Let's look at the immediate prospects for HG copper. Which at the moment (as it should by July seasonality) is moving leisurely with a barely noticeable up-trend. Analysts attribute such growth to demand in the US real estate market, whose index has updated a 7-year high and is dragging the copper quotes with it! Such a strange correlation.
In the meantime, seasonal growth of copper is expected only till the beginning of August. Below is the graph of multi-year (3, 5 and 10-year) seasonal trends of September U-trends of HG:
Here we can clearly see that the seasonal decline of the HGU3 is already possible from July 30 until mid-August-month! The blue price line shows the somewhat questionable and awkward performance of last year, 2012.
However, now we will be much more interested in the calendar HGU3-Z3 copper spread (September-December). English-language seasonal websites recommend this spread from the second decade of July! Until the end of the first decade of August. Let's see a graph of multiyear averaged seasonal (3, 5 and 10 years) trends of the HGU3-HGZ3 spread in the analyzed timeframe:
Indeed, the seasonality of the first half of August is much clearer than in the single contract! Theblue line shows a satisfactory performance of the instrument from last year, 2012. For a more specific estimation of further expected seasonal movement, let's look at the complete sales statistics of the HGU3-Z3 spread, for example, from July 26 to August 8 for the last 13 years:
The percentage of profitable trades(+11/-2), as well as the ratio of average profit/loss(+27tics/-2tic, 1tic=$12.5 per spread contract) in the analyzed time interval looks quite satisfactory! Even (and especially) for work on very small exchange deposits!
The current situation for the HGU3-Z3 copper spread is shown in the candlestick Daily chart below:
Note that despite the "modest" intraday volatility (2-4 ticks, rarely more) - the daily spread trading volumes in July-month are quite solid! There is no complaints about the liquidity of the spread! And finally add that in the popular trading platform CQG, this spread is set as CPES3U3.
Good luck to all.