EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 1198

 
My Euro-dollar outlook for today = slight increase in the Euro/dollar, slight market movement = continuation of the sideways trend.
 

The level of 1.3600 provided support for EURUSD.


 
vic2008 писал(а) >>

The level of 1.3600 has given support to EURUSD.

Good afternoon Gentlemen! Excuse me, but I have a question for VIC2008. How could the level of 3600 give support to the euro, if the Asian low even on your screenshot was around 3585? I am an amateur, of course, and I`ve been losing only three years on micro reals, but doesn`t it seem to you that something is wrong?

 

I assume a bounce down from Murray's 8/8 level at the cross with the resistance line.

In my experience, such signals work very well...


 

EURUSD Forecast 01.03.2010 by Box-Jenkins with a 4-day lead:

yellow line - forecast of EURUSD quote;

red lines - forecast for MA (5,15,21);

Judging by the forecast, an uptrend is (are) coming up this week.

 
European Forex Technicals: Sterling Set For More Weakness
 By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:

 
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF Spot 0627 GMT 1.3612 89.25 1.5154 1.0754 3 Day Trend Range Bearish Weekly Trend Range Bearish Bullish 200 day ma 1.4217 92.04 1.6097 1.0568 3rd Resistance 1.3693 90.36 1.5322 1.0871 2nd Resistance 1.3683 89.76 1.5265 1.0823 1st Resistance 1.3665 89.51 1.5203 1.0776 Pivot* 1.3615 89.07 1.5237 1.0750 1st Support 1.3550 88.70 1.5100 1.0705 2nd Support 1.3523 88.55 1.5000 1.0692 3rd Support 1.3443 88.16 1.4983 1.0645 

Intraday EUR/USD: Remains rangebound within a bear pennant beneath Friday's 1.3683 high, which protects the Feb. 23 high at 1.3693. There is risk of weakness to the 1.3523 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, but only below there would bring the focus back to the bear pennant lows at 1.3443/51. Only a break above 1.3683/93 would put near-term bulls in control and open the 1.3789 lower high.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.

 

Intraday USD/JPY: Sharply extends the dominant near-term bear tone below 89.76 to bring the focus back onto the Feb. 4 monthly low at 88.55. Below there would put longer term bears in control, upgrading the setback that originated from the January peak at 93.78 and creating further downside risks towards 87.36 and 86.93. Only regaining ground above 90.36 would question the bearish outlook.

Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.

 

Intraday GBP/USD: Maintains the severe downtrend to force a break below 1.5153 and challenges projected support in the 1.5100 area. However, scope exists for further weakness towards the psychological 1.5000 level, and an equality downside target at 1.4893, projected off the peak of the bear flag at 1.5814. Monday's high so far at 1.5203 is required to provide temporary relief, though corrective gains look limited to 1.5265.

Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.

 

Intraday USD/CHF: Continues to consolidate beneath the recent 1.0883/1.0902 highs, and while 1.0823 caps, the threat is for renewed bear pressure on Friday's 1.0692 low. Below there would expose the 1.0607/1.0645 higher lows, with 1.0576 the main target. Upside risk has diminished, and only regaining ground above 1.0821 would lift the tone and re-open the 1.0883/1.0902 highs.

Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.

Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD Spot 0703 GMT 0.9000 121.30 1.4636 0.8969 3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Range Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Range 200 day ma 0.8839 130.81 1.4999 0.8659 3rd Resistance 0.9053 122.62 1.4672 0.9144 2nd Resistance 0.9041 122.29 1.4651 0.9071 1st Resistance 0.9000 121.66 1.4646 0.9007 Pivot* 0.8929 121.11 1.4632 0.8933 1st Support 0.8920 120.51 1.4617 0.8881 2nd Support 0.8870 119.66 1.4606 0.8802 3rd Support 0.8841 119.00 1.4551 0.8765 

Intraday EUR/GBP: Maintains the strong upside break to challenge the psychological 0.9000 area, and there is room for 1.618 upside extension targets which coincide at 0.9042. The Dec. 30 lower high at 0.9053 also lies near there, and should cap the strong recovery. Downside risk is limited, and only a break below 0.8920 would provide relief, exposing the 0.8870 higher low.

Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.

 

Intraday EUR/JPY: Stages a good recovery off the Feb. 25 low at 119.66, and is putting pressure on Friday's high at 121.66. Above there would open the Feb. 24 lower high at 122.62 lower high, although upside risk should be capped in this area which marked the completion of a bear flag last week. A break back below 120.51 is required to bring the focus back onto the 119.66 low.

Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.

 

Intraday EUR/CHF: Continues to drift downwards as a lower high forms at 1.4651, and bear pressure at 1.4624 threatens further weakness to 1.4617 and 1.4606. Above 1.4651 is required to provide relief towards 1.4672, although any move higher would be against the dominant short-term and long-term bear trend.

Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.

 

Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the good recovery off the Feb. 25 low at 0.8802 to leave a near-term bear failure, and the push above 0.8925 now puts the spotlight onto the Feb. 23 high at 0.9071. However, to put near-term bulls in control requires a break through 0.9071 which would open the 0.9144 lower high. A loss of 0.8881 would threaten a return to the 0.8802 low.

Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.

 

* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.

 

For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN".

 

-By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com

 
S_E_R_G_E >>:

День добрый Господа! Вы уж меня извините, но у меня вопрос к VIC2008. Как уровень 3600 мог оказать поддержку евро, если минимум азии даже на Вашем скрине был около 3585? Я конечно дилетант, и всего лишь три года сливаю на микро реале, но вам не кажется, что тут что то не совсем так?

that's why you lose .... change the timeframe .... and this difference of 15 pips will not be significant on a larger timeframe))))

 
S_E_R_G_E >>:

День добрый Господа! Вы уж меня извините, но у меня вопрос к VIC2008. Как уровень 3600 мог оказать поддержку евро, если минимум азии даже на Вашем скрине был около 3585? Я конечно дилетант, и всего лишь три года сливаю на микро реале, но вам не кажется, что тут что то не совсем так?

In the screenshot the level is indicated by the red line .... this is the transition from resistance to support..... and you are looking at the shadows that formed on the asian session...... look where just before this line indicates resistance

 
odiseif >>:

по тому и сливаете ....таймфрейм меняйте ....и эта разница в 15 пунктов не будет значительна на большем таймфрейме))))ыыыыыыыыыыыыы

There is a difference. The levels are more accurate on the lower timeframe, while the levels are stronger on the higher timeframe. Today, 3585 is the fractal down from 09.02.2010 (on the daily chart), now the nearest resistance (very strong) is 3664 is the fractal up from 1.2.2005 (on the monthly chart).

 

EURUSD Forecast 01.03.2010 by Box-Jenkins lines 95% confidence interval (support-resistance)