EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 893
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EUR/USD during the day: The pair continued its corrective rise from the January 21 low of 1.4029 and began to put pressure on the high of 1.4182. A break of this high would open the pair to 1.4218 and 1.4239 resistance levels. At 1.4239 is the 38.2% retracement level of the decline wave from 1.4580 to 1.4029. A fall below 1.4134 would undermine the structure of this corrective rise and target the pair at 1.4086 and 1.4029.
EUR/USD weekly chart: Downtrend.
Euribucks, H1
The pound is also going to go down today, so I put a Sell Limit at 1.6155
Еврабакс, Н1
По фунту сегодня тоже дожны полететь вниз нереально, поэтому поставил Sell Limit на 1.6155
Both the yen and the pound expect only a 38% retracement ? We are not going to go to 50%?
Euribucks, H1
On the pound today is also unreal to fly down, so I put the Sell Limit at 1.6155
Then you are already in the pound at 1.6157
On the pound 1.6204 a possible reversal is 61.8
38.2 - it was 1.6156 - i think it was broken through on 30m, i'm just learning...
Published 14:45 25.01.2010
The market remains weakly volatile at the moment. The dollar is losing slightly on expectations of weaker-than-forecasted secondary market housing sales statistics. However, this figure has already been taken into account by the markets, so the players can ignore the negative and go on the plus side. The dollar, on the other hand, might get into a selling wave as a funding currency for purchases of high-yielding assets. On the other hand, a quiet trade in the current ranges before the most important event of the week cannot be ruled out.
The defining event for the world financial markets will be the US Fed meeting, the results of which will be announced on Wednesday. Most likely the discount rate for the dollar will remain in the 0-0.25% range. All attention of players and investors will be turned to the text of the accompanying message, in which the Fed may somehow reflect the nuances of the future exit strategy from the current super-soft monetary policy, which, on the one hand, helps to cope with the consequences of the crisis, but on the other - increases inflation risks and makes the possibility of a sharp dollar depreciation in the future likely.
In the eyes of investors, the re-election of the Fed governor could mean a continuation of stimulus measures and further maintenance of the Fed's discount rate at the current low level, and it probably does, given that the dollar has shown a rather calm reaction to such reports.
On the other hand, the Euro recovery is constrained by the unresolved Greek issue, which is not so interesting for the players, but if new details about the Greek authorities' actions appear, it is likely that the Euro will start falling again.
In the light of the above, we are likely to see high volatility in FOREX in the coming days. Nevertheless, even in case of overly dynamic trading the EUR/USD pair is unlikely to go beyond the range of 1.40-1.44.
FIBO Group MFH Analyst, Michael NersesovDmitry Vozny's blog
The process of strengthening of the American dollar, which started at the beginning of last December, continues. At the moment it is not yet clear what form and depth this process will take on the chart - an impulse or a zigzag. Therefore it is not yet clear which of the scenarios considered should be chosen to illustrate this. But it is logical to expect that at least a zigzag will form.
If the assumption is correct, the corrective second wave (ii) of [c] is developing now, which can take the form of a single zigzag.
look at the Canadian.
I don't think the dollar will strengthen much