EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 83
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Still 4 black is small IMHO.... probably would just be WXY like the whole structure
Small, because there is such a rule as alternation...
If the 2nd wave was long and deeply corrected, most probably the 4th wave will be short and not deep (as well as on the contrary). And the top of the 1st wave does not intersect with the bottom of the 4th wave.
VTB comment
In 1.5 days, the MICEX index recouped the decline of the previous 3 days and returned to the highs. The growth is due to closing unprofitable short positions, opened during the decline, and the question of their number, and consequently the limits of growth remains open. The development of the situation is largely due to external factors, which makes the situation hard to predict by TA methods.
November 2009 Brent crude oil futures traded higher, climbing out of the 68.5-69.5 dollar band. Breaking past the $70 mark closed most of the previous decline. Support at $70 is holding back the move down, which is also supported by the currency market. However, the technical picture favours a break-down in the trading channel and a return to $69, within the framework of the continuation pattern formed on the basis of the black candlestick of 21.09.
The Dow Jones index has formed a 3rd local top around the level of 9850 points. The situation is in a state of uncertainty, as the daily charts do not give any clear signals, apart from the formed divergent triangle of huge dimensions. On the hourly charts, the situation could develop according to any scenario, either in the form of the completion of the 3rd peak and a downward reversal, or an upward exit from the corridor. The answer could come out at 22:15 Moscow timeframe with the Fed Funds rate release.
The Eurodollar (EURUSD) reached 1.4820 and although there was a brief bounce to 1.4841, this did not lead to further gains. Also, the subsequent consolidation under 1.4820 led to the formation of a combination with a large white candle, which serves as a warning that a top could be reached. The Fed rate decision at 22-15 MSc could have a significant impact on the dynamics. The technical situation speaks in favour of closing the sharp rise from 1.4700.
VTB comment
In 1.5 days, the MICEX index recouped the decline of the previous 3 days and returned to the highs. The growth is due to closing unprofitable short positions, opened during the decline, and the question of their number, and consequently the limits of growth remains open. The development of the situation is largely due to external factors, which makes the situation hard to predict by TA methods.
November 2009 Brent crude oil futures traded higher, climbing out of the 68.5-69.5 dollar band. Breaking past the $70 mark closed most of the previous decline. Support at $70 is holding back the move down, which is also supported by the currency market. However, the technical picture favours a break-down in the trading channel and a return to 69 dollars, in a continuation pattern based on the black barbell of 21/09.
TheDow Jones Industrial Average made its third local top around 9850 points. The situation is in a state of uncertainty, as the daily charts do not give any clear signals, apart from the formed divergent triangle of huge dimensions. On the hourly charts, the situation could develop according to any scenario, either in the form of the completion of the 3rd peak and a downward reversal, or an upward exit from the corridor. The answer could come out at 22:15 Moscow timeframe with the Fed Funds rate release.
The Eurodollar (EURUSD) reached 1.4820 and although there was a brief bounce to 1.4841, this did not lead to further gains. Also, the subsequent consolidation under 1.4820 led to the formation of a combination with a large white candle, which serves as a warning that a top could be reached. The Fed rate decision at 22-15 MSc could have a significant impact on the dynamics. The technical situation speaks in favour of closing the sharp rise from 1.4700.
if you can add your own comments about the currency movements
A bit small, because there is such a rule as alternation...
If the 2nd wave was long and deeply corrected, the 4th wave is likely to be short and not deep (and vice versa). Moreover, the top of the 1st wave does not intersect with the bottom of the 4th.
OK, let's see if there is a 10pp gap - as they say time will tell - the market will judge...
Don't be afraid, people!
Don't be afraid of the prison, don't be afraid of the law,
Fear not the pestilence and the pestilence,
Fear not the only thing you have to fear,
Who says, "I know how to do it!"
Who will say, "Come, people, follow me,
I'll teach you how to do it!"
1.4850 is a temporary stop... a slight pullback... and storm 1.4903...
1.4700 is fantastic...
Fantastic today is reality tomorrow, and the 4692 level seems more and more real.
IMHO: as I predicted earlier it looks like it will be resolved.
Maybe a small pullback, which will lead to a shot to the bottom.
In the green zone the further trend will be determined, in general I expect a breakdown of the channel to the bottom and further trend in this direction, though the channel may continue and at the exit from the green zone a little bypassing may take place.
Or so:
Today's fiction is tomorrow's reality, and the 4692 level seems increasingly real.
>> that's where we're going.