EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 3
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EUR/USD event probability in 7 days +300p is only 5.6%, I think it should go down.
A channel has formed which is looking to support (important) 1.4520, a breakdown will most likely take us to 1.4460
RISK, what kind of software is it?
Do a 10 year euro data for September, it looks like 80% of the monthly candle is bullish
It's a 7 year sample
RISK, what kind of software is it?
Do a 10 year euro data for September, it looks like 80% of the monthly candle is bullish
This is a 7 year sample.
September is the worst month of the year (historically) for the Euro. Specific data would be nice to see.
RISK, what kind of software is it?
Do a 10 year euro data for September, it looks like 80% of the monthly candle is bullish
It's a 7 year sample.
The program calculates probabilities on historical data, max, min and mean values of differences between candlesticks.
I cannot download daily logs for 10 years, if someone will put hst of daily logs for 10 years I will calculate them without problems.
But I have got the weeks. The 10 years probability of rebound in 300 points per week (5 working days) is only 2.5%.
Comment by VTB
Commentary on the stock market 14.09.2009
Oil, DJI and EURUSD
The price of October 2009 Brent crude oil futures returned to the corridor from which it had moved upwards during the auction on 08.09. The downward move may be interpreted as an attempt to return to the channel in which the decline from 75 dollars took place, in order to reach its lower boundary, which corresponds to the level of 64.5 dollars. Occurring movement among the traded levels allows to speak cautiously about formation of a new descending channel, in which price movement can be expected.
Dow Jones index stopped the upward movement, which was also not disposed to the trading date of September 11. A volley candlestick was formed on the daily charts, which could be the centre of the reversal. That does not preclude a repeat of scenario 1, in the form of a breakdown of the 9,500-9,600 point corridor in the near term. Also, a normal correction to the previous rise from 9300 pips cannot be ruled out.
The Eurodollar (EURUSD) traded around 1.4600 for most of the time on 11.09 and had brief attempts to move above that level. The downside movement within the corridor 1.4530 - 1.4620 occurred from the beginning of the trading on 14.09, and at the moment we can talk about the trading in the sub-corridor 1.4530 - 1.4570, as a result of which we can say about the formation of the continuation pattern. In the near future, we can expect the development of the decrease and reaching the levels just below 1.4500, with the subsequent breakdown of the achieved levels.
intraday trading signals are not yet giving me an entry into the sell
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I prefer buy signals for now
maybe by tonight and tomorrow everything will change
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( intraday short signals worked out buy 1.4536 1.4646 close )
furthermore for the day trading plan
on entry into the zone
4473 first buy
4395 another buy low probability
4318 more buy low
stops below 4270
intraday trading signals are not giving me an entry into the sell yet
....
As long as the movement has not determined the direction I will wait. No levels to start with. Don't want to snatch hot coals from the stove :)
Commentary on the Russian stock market
Edition of 14.09.2009
After a $3 drop in oil prices, the market looks surprisingly strong
Despite the serious drop in oil futures late Friday night, the Russian equity market, half consisting of oil and gas companies, has nevertheless withstood the external blow with valour - the MICEX Index is now down just 1%. While this morning's gap down was an expected development, its size (just 2%) and subsequent attempts to close it indicate that the bulls are confident that the rally in the Russian market is not yet over.
Western European stock indicators (DAX -0.8%, FTSE -0.7%) and S&P500 futures remain in the red. Brent is still below the important $68 level. Against this backdrop, the closing gap in Surgutneftegas shares this morning and Gazprom Neft shares rising more than 1% look very confident. Not to mention some of the second-tier stocks, to which speculators switched in the absence of strong moves on the "chips". KAMAZ is again showing a 30% increase in capitalization (in just 3 days the securities have gained 120%). AVTOVAZ, which is close to the company in terms of shareholder structure (+8%). The securities of RAO ES of the East shot up by 10%, which was a delayed market reaction to the significant growth in the quotations of grid companies' shares in the last 2 weeks. It should be reminded that the grid component in the business of RAO ES of the East remains quite significant, and the rise in this sector should have been reflected in the quotations of the integrated energy company of the Far East. Nevertheless, despite the occasional "bright stars" flashing in the second tier, our attitude to this market segment remains negative. And unexpected rises in quotations of certain representatives are solely a reaction to news events and cannot be regarded as a confirmation of long-term investment capital's return to the Russian market.
The market continues to show resilience to external negativity. However, we do not recommend building longs at the moment. The Central Bank's decision to lower the refinancing rate by a further 25pc to 10.5% per annum and the corresponding reduction in borrowing costs is certainly a positive factor for equity markets. However, the impact of external factors currently prevails. And we perceive the level of $65/bbl Brent as a key milestone. Decrease of oil quotes below this level will not be able to keep our market at year's highs by RTS index.
Market analysis
Stanislav Kleshchev, analyst of VTB 24
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GAZPROM M15