Which is easier - a steady 500 pips a month or just 20? - page 10

 
Mathemat >> :

coaster, the question is exactly what it was in the first post of the thread. 20 steady pips a month or 500 - which do you think is easier for you? It doesn't matter how you do it - even if it's in portions of 100 pips or whatever. I'm hoping for as simple an answer as the original question was.

20p/month < 500p/month

Less means easier. Logical?

 
Swetten >> :

>> 20 and up?

Yeah, if ProfitTrade=100%. :)

 

Uh-huh. :) That's exactly how I understood it:

Mathemat >> :

Here you made 22 overnight trades with TP=20, SL=60.

Kind of like all successful, right? :) Or did all of them trigger YL=60? :)

 
Swetten >> :

Uh-huh. :) That's what I figured:

Sort of all successful, right? :) Or did they all trigger YL=60? :)

The former is certainly more likely than the latter, especially in some future life. ;)

 
Mathemat писал(а) >>

The question remains as simple as that:

- I came here... And I would like to make 500 points a month, but I know that it takes a long time to learn. I'd rather, having grasped with my beginner's mind, make ...well, at least 20 a month...

I tried and twisted my different debugging (for indulators) Expert Advisors and signals - it turns out that 500 points is more profitable, because the profit/loss ratio is better. Of course, it is better with MaMa in my arms. It is good enough for a beginner. For 20 pips you need high entry accuracy. For 500 pips accuracy can be with more margin of error.

 
A system with a positive MO will have a more stable result in a month with the maximum number of trades per month. Of course, all other things being equal in terms of profit/risk and robustness, which is much harder to assess. But how many pips will it yield on average - approximately the MOH-number of trades. I.e. number of pips per month is a consequence of the statistical advantage, not the goal. It is harder to find a robust statistical advantage :)
 
Avals >> :
The more stable result in a month will be obtained by a system with a positive ORM that has the maximum number of trades per month. Of course, all other things being equal in profit/risk and robustness, which is much harder to evaluate. But how many pips will it yield on average - approximately the MOH-number of trades. I.e. number of pips per month is a consequence of the statistical advantage, not the goal. It is harder to find a robust statistical advantage :)

Now it remains to generalize this and other considerations (for all strategies and all market conditions), to make mathematically impeccable deductions and conclusions, to prove that 20 pips objectives are as difficult to achieve as 500 pips objectives. I guess 20 pips is not a coincidence, right?

 
gip писал(а) >>

All that remains is to generalise this and other considerations (for all strategies and all market conditions), to make mathematically perfect deductions and conclusions, to prove that 20 pips targets are exactly as difficult to achieve as 500 pips targets. I assume that 20 pips is a reasonable figure, right?

The justification is simple - from statistics and TV: statistical indicators such as MO estimates, probabilities, etc. converge to their theoretical values as the number of trials increases. And in conditions of uncertainty, statistical indicators are the only thing that can be stable... and sometimes :)

 

Thanks to everyone involved. I've heard some pretty paradoxical arguments. But I didn't expect the answer to be obvious.

The conclusion is not unambiguous, but quite logical: a stable profit flow of 500 pips per month is not more difficult, but even "statistically more stable" than 20 pips. This figure was chosen by me simply as an approximate result of one trade.

OK, I'll think of another stupid question...

 
Mathemat >> :

Thanks to everyone who took part. I have heard some rather paradoxical arguments. But I didn't expect the answer to be obvious.

The conclusion is not unambiguous, but quite logical: a stable profit flow of 500 points per month is not more difficult, but even "statistically more stable" than 20 points. This figure has been chosen by me simply as an approximate result of one trade.

OK, I'll think of another stupid question...

I, for one, haven't heard the "right" answer. It's pretty obvious.

20 or 500 is not important, both figures are meaningless. You have to go by the nature of currency movements, then the question about points will not arise. The nature of the market in 2006 and 2008 from the third quarter and the beginning of 2009 should convince you of that. In one case it was easier to take 20-30-40-50-100, but not 500 in a month. In the other it was easier to take 100-200-300 and even 500 like EURUSD 18.03.2009 in ONE DAY !!!

I think you should approach the problem from the beginning, i.e., start from the laws and the nature of the market, instead of looking for an answer in the end of the 8th grade algebra textbook.