Looking for an MTS. giving a steady 20% or more per month - page 32
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...It's been a long time since I've looked at the dogma of "there must be stops in the system"...
Huh... -:)
I even remember where I was taught that...
This thread has a great name: "Looking for a stable 20 to 40" -:)
HIDDEN,
Hmm. Real nice. That's not 20 percent, that's 200 percent a month. What's the catch?
To be precise, and you have to be precise in the market, it is still 177.01% of the initial deposit. But that is not the point.
I will start to reveal the secrets, which I have so far reached.
1) History of quotes.
In my opinion, the most important part in development of any Expert Advisor. The correctness of testing and evaluation of Expert Advisors depends on its quality.
At present there are no quotes on the web that would satisfy the good quality of testing and optimization. This is where I started in the first place.
It took me about 4 months to pile everything together, analyze, patch, synchronize, recalculate, etc. As a result, there is something to test on.
Any expert system is price sensitive, DC filters, volume drowning, candlestick re-runs in history are all child's play compared to when you use a strategy tester, if the history is not ready for the tester, the expert is not ready for real trading, even on a demo account.
As many people noticed I am using many currency pairs in my strategy, all these pairs are synchronous with each other, minute by minute. This gives a huge advantage when testing such multicurrency Expert Advisors. Selection of optimal parameters for each pair. If necessary, we merge all the reports into one report with a number of conditions and checks. Detection of favourable moments for closing of this or that currency pairs or their combinations.
2. The mathematics of the system.
Every system has to contain mathematics of transactions. Mathematics covers several areas of calculations.
a) Quotes for currency pairs. (statistics of movement dynamics, time intervals, trading sessions)
b) Indicators (if the system is built on them, their combinatorics).
c) Use of history of performed deals.
d) Monitoring of positions in the market.
Optimization of the Expert Advisor for a currency pair.
Here I tortured the tester and myself for a long time, but the developers gave us several points for limiting the sampling, but again, they are not ideal.
Drawdown, the main point of any system. The less it is, the better. The drawdown acceptability is different for everyone, for me it is 10%, then the psychological factor comes into play and a series of foolish actions begins. There is a cause-and-effect relationship between my fussiness and stupidity. When I get into Expert Advisor settings, I realise that it is fussiness stupidity.
But up to the moment of occurrence of this connection I try to prevent it in advance.
If you take any expert, any strategy, they all have settings. The settings have to lend themselves to mathematics, I'll give you an example:
- The system uses StopLoss, TakeProfit, TrallingStop.
The simple mathematics of optimizing such an Expert Advisor should be at least as follows
StopLoss >= TakeProfit * K
TakeProfit <= TrallingStop * N
K, N - coefficients
This simple scheme during optimization eliminates overprofitability, reduces drawdown, reduces the number of deals and makes parameters balanced.
4. Capital management
Trading with a fixed lot or 1 order is a common mistake of developers. If you look at trading after you have entered the market you often say to yourself: I would enter more here or just reverse and let the profit trade grow further on a pullback. MM is also an interesting part of any system. Since MM increases the risk of deposit and drawdown. Its use with the accumulation gives the advantage in the further work of the Expert Advisor.
5. Use of news.
It is not used as a choice of the movement direction when news are released, but it is used to limit possible losses. If the market reaction is positive for an open order we leave it, if negative, we switch to breakeven if profitable, or hedge, rarely close. The logic of breakeven or hedging is different, it all depends on the state of the position. If there is no position on a currency pair, you'd better wait out the spikes and trade on a more predictable area. You should try to close, if not all, then at least profitable trades at the end of the week.
6. Technical analysis.
This is the only way to avoid using it in your own work. But there is one thing that always works in the market for all pairs. In my opinion, the first technical information is a channel, then a wave, the third is round numbers, and the fourth is trend or flat analysis at high timeframes.
7. Do not interfere with the Expert Advisor trading.
I am testing on the following principle, put it and forget it for 1 week. Weekend for analysis, refinement, contemplation. There is no need to go into the Expert Advisor settings after the next losing or profitable trade. If there are mistakes, it would be better to stop testing and fix them, think over each step of the Expert Advisor, become an Expert Advisor, look at the market with its digital eyes and think with its digital brain, and not interfere with its trading.
8. Development of the expert.
The main mistake many people make when trying to create an Expert Advisor (profitable or unprofitable, it does not matter) is not knowing the final result.
Write down the strategy on paper, check each point, find information on the web, any invented method has already been tried by others, you just need to evaluate the results of this attempt and the feasibility of going down this path. Any strategy should work on any currency pair. Every currency pair has only 2 paths. either up or down, even if this movement is only 1 point, this point should be used.
Each point above is my personal opinion, my experience. I don't want to dispute or prove anything. I simply stated what I had come to myself.
...
I'll start revealing the secrets I've yet to get to.
...It should be in a separate thread, or even an article. It's good for everyone here to know.
Thank you, Kirill, very valuable information. Much of it is close to my own mind.
I have a quick question that you don't have to answer: how many years did it take you to get to know Foreh before you developed the system that you now use as a "flute"?
Thank you, Kirill, very valuable information. Much of it is close to my own mind.
I have a little question, which you can skip answering: how many years passed from acquaintance with Forech to development of the system you call a flute now?
>> Six years, no less.
Thank you. Just the training period for a specialist in any field. That's what SK. was talking about at the time.
P.S. I forgot to add: for a specialist with a higher education crust.
They should put it in a separate thread or even an article. It's good for everybody to know.
I'm thinking about your suggestion for such a topic, but things like this pop into my head.
1. Not many of the people here will want to publish the rules they have thought of, some will not because of the amount of explaining required.
2. The thread will turn into one more flood. It is inevitable these days. If the topicposter could moderate his topic, with, say, banning people who start off-topic fluttering (ban on the branch), then yes it would be possible to create such a branch.
3. It is possible to write an article. But it is such volume of work that it is necessary to be either retired, or to be a writer and write and write, I alas have no time to do it.
Each point that I wrote, in the post above, cost me in my time with nerves, deposits, etc.. I left both the forum and the market for 1 year in order to put my thoughts in order. I did, I came back.
As for the brokers, their professional skill is a real profession and takes years of work and training + analytical mind.
I personally consider myself a "newbie", to put it mildly, there are a lot of secrets hidden in the wilds of the market, forum, Internet.....
>> 1. Nevertheless, you have decided to do so. It is praiseworthy and moreover useful for others. The latter is the reason for my suggestion.
2. it would be interesting to hear from the Moderators, regarding the possibility of creating a thread with a ban on comments.
3. Some of the articles on this site have an order of magnitude less text than your post. I'm almost certain that if you were to take on an article, it would be much larger than what has already been written, as well as more in-depth material. That is why it takes time, which is not enough. It is up to you to write the article and many will be grateful for what has already been written.
Regarding the last one:
а. Even if you consider yourself a "novice", you should consider the number of "dilettantes" who have far less knowledge and experience.
б. The second part of the sentence should probably be taken as a call to action.
To sum up the above: Thank you, I hope we will learn much more from you.
P. S. I hope copying for personal use is allowed.
To sum it up: Thank you, I hope we will learn much more from you.
P. S. I hope it's allowed to copy it for personal use.
I have my own personal website, all publications I will do there. The reason is trivial, I have repeatedly received a ban on the forum for expressing my opinion here about trading, brokers. I've already received a ban many times for expressing my opinion about trading here and about brokers. Moderators quickly teach me what and most importantly what should be expressed here on the forum.
I have not given him a big publicity yet, but I can say that I am planning to make a number of useful services on this web-site for traders all over the world.
Of course there will be commercial products from my pen (this is not advertising). A lot of analytical information, a lot of source codes to check this or that field of trading.
>> all right, let's start on Monday.)
The day X has arrived.
It's been over 7 hours now and still no account or investment password.