What is the cumulative probability? - page 3
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Example:
Event X: the probability of Boxer A retaining the title. Boxer B is a potential title challenger.
Boxers A and B are equal in weight, strength and other physical characteristics.
Boxer A has 95 wins out of 100 fights fought.
Then the probability of event X, dependent on A, is P(A)=0.95
Boxer B has 85 wins out of 100 fights.
Then the probability of the event X, depending on B, will be P(B)=0.15.
What is the final probability of retaining the championship title?
Victory 1st - (0.95+0.15)/2=0.55
Victory 2 - (0.85+0.05)/2=0.45
Or I'll pass!
Victory 1st - (0.95+0.15)/2=0.55
Victory 2 - (0.85+0.05)/2=0.45
Or I'll pass!
:) What if P(A)=1 and P(B)=0.5 ???
If a 100/100 champion fights a 50/100 semi loser, can the champion's odds be reduced by as much as 25% to 0.75 ???
Convert the probabilities, then calculate the average.
:) What if P(A)=1 and P(B)=0.5?
If a 100/100 champion fights a 50/100 semi-loser, can the champion's odds be reduced by as much as 25% to 0.75 ???
Of course they can.
Now let's assume that the semi loser wins, which is quite possible.Calculation A facing this situation next time
will give out 100 again ?
Convert the probabilities, then count the average.
As I understand from the graph: we plot value (0.5+1)/2=0.75 on x-axis and get probability value on y-axis. Question: what is this function? I want to write down the final formula.
Of course they can.
Now, let's assume that a half-loser wins, which is quite possible.
>> will give you 100 again?
I think that if I (with zero chance) spar with this semi-loser, my chances will remain at zero, and I, with zero chance, can hardly reduce those chances to someone. :)
If the underdog in your example could miraculously win, it's unlikely the champion would have made it to 100/100 in his entire career with such fatal accidents.
Reshetov has already answered you above, you can also read the definition of independent events:
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C_%28%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%B9%29
I think if I (with a chance of zero) am put in a sparring with this semi-loser, my chances will still be at zero, and it is unlikely that I, with zero chances, can reduce those chances to anyone. :)
If the loser in your example could miraculously win, the champion would hardly make it to 100/100 for his entire career with such fatal accidents.
I mean, you have to be very careful with the percentage logic. In this case, if you estimate your odds at 0, how do you
estimate the chances of a man with one arm and one leg against the same half-assed loser?
If you got 100 somewhere in the output and are so sure of them then why dilute and compare.100 in principle cannot be.
Reshetov has already answered you above, you can also read the definition of independent events:
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C_%28%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%B9%29
You are off the mark. So far, Integer is making a point.