A probability theory problem - page 9
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Example:The probabilities of hitting the target by the first and second guns respectively are: p1=0.7; p2=0.8. Find probability of hitting at one salvo by both guns simultaneously.
Solution: as we have seen the events A (the first gun hit) and B (the second gun hit) are independent, i.e.P( AB)=P(A)*P(B)=p1*p2=0.56.
P(AB) = P(A)*P(B)- the probability ofsimultaneous occurrence of twoindependent events is equal tothe product of their probabilities.
Example:The probabilities of hitting the target by the first and second guns respectively are: p1=0.7; p2=0.8. Find probability of hitting at one salvo by both guns simultaneously.
Solution: as we have seen the events A (the first gun hit) and B (the second gun hit) are independent, i.e.P( AB)=P(A)*P(B)=p1*p2=0.56.
In this case we cannot talk about independence. There is simply a time lag between indicators. So the formula is quite different
P(AB) = P(A)*P(B)- the probabilityof occurrence of twoindependent events is equal tothe product of their probabilities.
Example:The probabilities of hitting the target by the first and second guns respectively are: p1=0.7; p2=0.8. Find probability of hitting at one salvo by both guns simultaneously.
Solution: as we have already seen the events A (the first gun hit) and B (the second gun hit) are independent, i.e.P( AB)=P(A)*P(B)=p1*p2=0.56.
Thanks for trying to help, but your solution refers to an entirely different problem. I do not need to calculate the probability of the event when all three indicators coincide.
I need to calculate the CONSTANT probability P(D/ABC) of event D occurrence, assuming all three indicators gave the same signal to buy the asset. Event D is a positive price increment. We don't consider the probability of occurrence of ABC (when three signals coincide) and we take it as occurring. Please read the condition.
In this case, there is no independence to speak of. There is simply a time lag between the indicators. So the formula is quite different
The signals are indeed considered independent. The delay between them does not play a role, we assume that all three signals already exist.
It seems that the condition with indicators and signals is misunderstood, immediately associating it with blinking, frequency of occurrence/occurrence, etc. Let's forget it as a bad dream and rephrase the same problem.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
We have a shooter in position who can either hit or miss the target (event D).
The probability of hitting the target depends on some conditions/events:
Let's assume that the shooter took the firing line when conditions/events ABC coincided, i.e. he is in good health, the wind does not blow the bullet away and the shooter's weapon is good.
Question: what is the probability of the shooter hitting the target P(D/ABC) when these conditions coincide?
The more indicators - the lower the probability.
We are not talking about the probability of getting the same signals (the frequency of their coincidence), but about the probability of their correct processing (that the price will go in the right direction), provided that the signals have already coincided (i.e. the A&B&C event has occurred).
However, we have already moved on to shooting so that there is less confusion.
We are not talking about the probability of getting the same signals (frequency of their coincidence), but about the probability of their correct processing (that the price will go in the right direction), provided that the signals have already coincided (i.e. A&B&C event has occurred).
However, we have already moved on to firing, so that there is less confusion.
It seems that the condition with indicators and signals is misunderstood, immediately associating it with blinking, frequency of occurrence/occurrence, etc. Let's forget it as a bad dream and rephrase the same problem.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
We have a shooter in position who can either hit or miss the target (event D).
The probability of hitting the target depends on some conditions/events:
Let's assume that the shooter took the firing line when conditions/events ABC coincided i.e. he is in good health, the wind does not blow the bullet away and the shooter's weapon is good.
Question: what is the probability of the shooter hitting the target P(D/ABC) when these conditions coincide?
And what is the probability of the shooter hitting the target?
where do these figures come from...let's assume that there were 100000 trials in which 50000 hits, i.e. an average of 0.5 and from this data samples are made on independent factors.
So A improves by 5%, B by 10%, C by 15%.
And what is the probability of a shooter hitting? Without that you can't calculate anything...
where do these figures come from...let's assume that there were 100000 trials in which 50000 hits, i.e. an average of 0.5 and from this data samples are made on independent factors.
So A improves by 5%, B by 10%, C by 15%.
The figures are taken from my head ... made up. You have to start somewhere.
Yes, let's assume that without conditions A, B and C the probability of the shooter hitting is 0.5, which is obtained with 100,000 trials and 50,000 hits.
And indeed: