A probability theory problem - page 3
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The task of every trader, from my point of view, is to find these patterns of market behaviour.
From my point of view - a very promising direction can be an attempt to describe market behaviour at a particular moment in time as a physical ball, which receives some impulse to move. And the stronger this impulse is, the more (due to its inertia) obvious will be the direction of movement and the possible path...
And how do you want to look for these regularities? Read in a textbook? Or will you have to resort to a probabilistic tool? How will you evaluate events without the apparatus of probability? Or do you think
that for certain actions there will always be an exact and single market answer?
Yes, for certain actions - the market response is usually unambiguous. Note - I wrote, as a rule, of course it is a probabilistic process. But I assure you, for really working trading systems, MTS - you can do without complicated mathematical intricacies. Ordinary linear mathematics (5th grade level knowledge) is quite sufficient. Of course, you can calculate the same using differential equations and God knows what else, but it will only give an additional level of accuracy.
But to create some kind of market model (again I say simplified) and build your trading strategy based on it, which implies that the action A - will be a one-way answer the market - B. I can assure you that by creating a few rules 2, 3 - you can successfully trade and create a working trading system.
OK, give the correct one and argue it.
I would put it this way: the more white/black candles in a row, the lower (less than 0.5) the probability of the next white/black one. But I don't see how that probability can be expressed in numbers without statistical research.
You have to look at the problem globally, not locally. The right question is not which ball is next, but which ones are in the bag. If two red ones have already been drawn, then there were originally either three red ones in the bag, or two red ones and one blue one. Now, let's estimate the probability of pulling two red balls in each of the scenarios.
If there were three reds, the probability of getting two reds in a row is 1, and if there was one blue, the chances of getting two reds in a row is only 1/3. The odds of the sampler (two balls) are the same as the odds of the whole set (three balls), i.e. the odds of there being a red ball there are three times higher than the odds of a blue ball.
Here again we should clarify, because taking out two reds in a row or two reds in a row from the beginning are different concepts and different probabilities.
The correct answer is this:
If there are two red and one blue ball in the bag initially and it's allowed to take the balls out without returning them later, then the probability of the first and second balls taken out being red is 1/3
The probability of being able to take two consecutive red balls out of the same bag, regardless of their ordinal numbering, is 2/3.
If the bag initially contains two red and one blue ball and it is allowed to take the balls out without their subsequent return to the bag, then the probability that the first and second balls taken out will be red is 1/3
The probability that two consecutive red balls can be taken out of the same bag, regardless of their order numbering, is 2/3.
So? The problem statement says explicitly: two red balls have been taken out and there is only one left in the bag.
What do you mean by that?
I admit that my task is not set correctly. I cannot clearly articulate what is in my mind. BUT, the probability of guessing the next candle for certain past combinations is not always 1/2. I found the probability of guessing the next candle with probability 0.76 (the highest probability of all obtained) based on statistical data.
P.S.: If anyone else is working in a similar direction - we can join forces.
P.S.: If anyone else is working in a similar direction, we can join forces.
I've processed statistical data, but the results are not very encouraging: I managed to get about 350-450p of profit with a drawdown of about 100p for 3 years.
I used an Expert Advisor that opens positions after N equal (by colour) bars of total height not less than M points. Variant 1 - trending, variant 2 - counter-trending. I tried it on several symbols of several timeframes. There are some unrealized ideas...
In the financial market (Forex specifically) there are both types of events - dependent and independent. And the dependent ones are just the main ones, and the independent ones are what you call noise.
I'll correct it, but not right now. To be honest, I just don't understand the terms of the topicstartner's problem either. I am writing an article about it. There will be big surprises, I guarantee, and there is a different approach. I myself am a little shocked by what I discovered...
You've already annoyed everyone so much.... that you're irritated :)
At least outline the theme and approach
I admit that my task is not set correctly. I cannot clearly articulate what is in my mind. BUT, the probability of guessing the next candle for certain past combinations is not always 1/2. I found the probability of guessing the next candle with probability 0.76 (the highest probability of all obtained) based on statistical data.
PS: If someone else is working in a similar direction - we can combine forces.
You can make it easier. Split tasks. And everyone works out their own. One option I have already worked. But I am afraid that it is not all the way through. Search, find and don't give up.
If anything, email and other things are in the profile.
In the financial market (specifically Forex) there are both types of events - dependent and independent. And the dependent ones are just the main ones, while the independent ones are what you call noise.
Can I give you an example of dependent events in forex?