Market condition - flat or trend? Which dominates? - page 15
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Probably any approach can eventually be reduced to playing for a breakout and/or rebound, in that sense it's similar on this forum. Perhaps other formal analogies are appropriate for that thread, but the devil, as you know, is in the details. As for being cumbersome - these people started dealing in the market much earlier than that thread arose.
I think if you have been using your approach for a long time, you will also become muddled in it :).
By the way, it is important to understand that the true purpose of special terms is not to complicate, but to simplify the understanding of ideas.
I'll start with the approach.
Well, not really. The matter is that the market as it is presented to us is discrete. We can only theoretically place orders in it every point (though a point is also a discrete value) exactly this factor generates some selectivity which can be treated as a breakout or a rebound. In reality we should just move with the market.
In my view (emphasis added), there is an intractable problem in all similar discussions. Trying to cover the entire market (all movements) by creating its (market) model. This is a dead-end road. I don't dispute the possibility of creating such a model, but we must determine our priorities (goals). If the purpose to create a model is one thing, if with the help of a model to earn money for bread and butter is another, if to earn money for bread and butter (without any model) is something else. You might as well build a model of life. And when to live? And the main problem is an attempt to distance (separate) oneself from the process. That is, there is the Self-individual, and there is society (nature), which is separate. A person has started a struggle with nature by his/her separation (distancing), opposing it, although it is not an enemy to him/her, but a friend, his/her part and vice versa, a person is an indispensable part of nature (society). So also with the market (which is similar to the model of nature, where there is always a choice) to be a participant of it and simultaneously try to distance oneself from it is doomed to failure. The market is not a billiard ball, which when hit by a ball will behave so-and-so, depending on how the self-player (from outside) hits it. In the market, the player is a ball and is at the same time a participant, a cause and an observer. Roughly speaking, the market is the participant (trader). So, with whom is the battle to be waged? With yourself. And there's no need to build a model, it's right in front of you, look closely in the mirror:). And the devil (details) is different for everyone, respectively. Maybe that's what attracts people to the market (besides mercantile money) - its analogy of life, the search for yourself.
.... I got distracted..., but some more analogies.
Imagine you are sailing. You have no way of moving except with the wind. You clearly know where your target is and sail towards it. Of course it's good if the wind is fair, but for an experienced sailor it doesn't matter where the wind blows from, even if it's straight towards you, you will still be sailing towards your goal. It makes no difference whether he knows why it's blowing, why it's so strong, why it's blowing in this direction (the pattern). His task is to use the wind, because his objective is not the cause of the wind (etc.), but the destination and where he is heading. Of course additional knowledge would help him, but will in no way affect how close he gets to his goal. The only obstacle in his (your) way is doldrums, a lack of wind. Well, can you cause it, no matter how well you can imagine its (wind's) pattern?
I believe that I have not only studied long enough, but I have also experienced it practically. My aim is to make sure that the practical result has a theoretical basis. No, I want to discard all the complicated solutions, as I'm for simple (reliable) solutions.
I am not afraid of special terms though I think any complicated thing may be explained on the fingers, but unfortunately not many people can do it. By wisdom I meant the approach, disagreement with which I stated above.
It's easy to build up a sea of all kinds of data and drown in it.
You must have had to do optimization. Haven't you calculated how many solutions were discarded and only one was left? I just try to go more by logical optimization, so as not to go through all the possible options. Imagine that we are on our way to a gold mine, but on the way we suddenly find signs of a gold mine. The mine will not get away from us, there is little chance that what we find is a gold mine, but there is nothing to stop us from checking it out. My way is from practice to optimisation.
And how is it supposed to get rid of arbitrariness in their choice? I mean that let's say the lowest one can have e.g. width of 20, 30, 50 etc. points, the highest one 100,121, 150, etc. So far I don't see any criteria in this approach to determine the parameters of the senior-lower channels.
None. I.e. 20,30,50 is three channel widths 20-younger, 30-middle, 50-senior (and maybe two is enough). The criterion is that trading conditions should not occur simultaneously. The main thing is that the channel width should fall within the stat.predominant range, as you have shown on the chart.
Can you elaborate on what you can get out of it?
It should give stability (decrease of drawdown), since the probability of simultaneous losses on several pairs is lower (but it remains, so it should be checked in practice, at least on the history). The analogue of the previous variant. Only the one on one pair with different channels, and this one on different pairs.
And here's the new version of EA (yes, now exactly EA =).
1. Added possibility to select start and end date (to use all history leave default values);
2. Moved the trend/float reference points. Now each state (segment) ends with price breakthrough (simulate trading). Everything moved to the right ;)
3. Added statistics on series of "states" (deals), not all of them yet:
- longest series by number of segments (number of segments, total length, total height);
- the longest series by width (number of bars, total length, total height);
- the most amplitude series (with maximal sum of heights of segments) (similar statistics).
4. Statistics is updated every tick (EA can be driven in the visualizer and observe the change of indicators).
5. Added drawing of ZigZag lines (now the indicator does not need to be launched at all) and external variables to change colours and styles of all lines.
6. Finally, added trading;) It is intended exclusively for the tester!!! (And it will trade only during testing, if nothing is changed in the code) Now we can compare the tester report statistics with our statistics (it's essentially a trade report too). The differences are minimal, which is good.
7. Everything new (and old too) should be thoroughly checked. Of course, I checked a lot, but I might not have noticed everything.
The code has become cumbersome (blunder here, blunder there). If the idea develops, I will rewrite it.
Xadviser, how are you doing with Skype? Not done yet? I, by the way, also use Firefox (v2.0.0.13) and skype (v3.6.0.248) works great.
And here's the new expert version (yes, now it's the expert =).
Yes... that's a bit tricky. Wouldn't it be easier with a turkey? (sorry... why am I sticking my pig snout in the oranges?)
But everything seems to be fine at first glance. Respect. Crowd of fans here. And the numbers are good, too. Need to drive around a little bit more. Take a closer look at the numbers in the report.
How is the calculation of width (number of bars) in trends and flat?
If the idea will develop, I will rewrite it.
I would like to, and you?
Frankly speaking, we are eager to add to the trading conditions of our TFS some algorithm that would place 2-3 orders in the direction of the main movement from the current level.
Surely it is not the best option (maybe there are similar more interesting solutions) but if it is not difficult. At the same time it will be a rough check of the point
Xadviser, how are you with skype? Not sorted out yet? By the way, I too use Firefox (v2.0.0.13) and Skype (v3.6.0.248) works fine.
Yes apparently it's still a problem with my computer. For a long time he slowly dying. Something will come up.
passive mode is characterised by
How is the width calculation (number of bars) in trend and flat implemented?
Xadviser wrote (a):
Well I would like to, would you?
Yes, probably we will continue. Only I will make a break. There is a lot of work, people are waiting.
If you do not mind, make a new list of improvements, otherwise I'm on page 13 already confused ;)
Xadviser wrote:
To be honest, we are itching to add to the trading conditions of our currency pair an algorithm that puts 2-3 more orders in the direction of the main move
There is no need to make it more complicated. All trading contrivances we are going to make will only distract us (by the number of zeros in the tester report).
First let's achieve our goal, then let's assemble the trading robot.
By the way, I would be interested to see an example of your analysis of a particular pair/FT.
If it is not difficult, make a new list of improvements, because I am already confused on the 13th page ;)
Good, because the width is a little less desirable to count, I pointed out on page 13. That's what I thought would slip out, so I asked again. But it's not a big deal. As for us the size (ratio) in points is more important, and the width is already as an additional advantageous factor. And I'll see what else is needed.
In general, all beautifully implemented. All is clear, but a little info clutters on the name of the expert.
..... will only be a distraction (the number of zeros in the tester report).
By the way, I'd be interested to see an example of your analysis of a particular pair/TF.
I do not understand about the zeros
Applied to the data you received or what? In the current moment? Didn't really understand the wish.
Let's consider one of the options suggested above
The logic of working
The initial (older) channel is used to make a 100-pp decision. The additional (low) channel is used to open trades only in the direction that the high channel indicated. Closing is upon reaching the opposite border of the channel. The main order that was opened according to the conditions of the high channel is not modified and is closed by itself according to the conditions of the high channel. The directions of transactions are indicated with arrows.
Fig_1 shows the variant of opening deals in the trend high channel
Picture 1
As you can see from the picture, application of additional conditions has added 65pp to the moneybox in addition to basic conditionals that have brought 63pp
Fig. 2 shows options of flat senior channels, but additional trade terms (TU) "work" in the direction of the main channel until the change of direction
Fig_2
As we can see, things are not so rosy here. In addition to losses by the basic criterion, losses have been added to the moneybox :-(
Fig_3 shows the flat variant
Fig_3
As we can see, additional conditions in this variant have reduced losses of the basic criterion.
Let us summarize.
If we had only worked with the trading conditions of the Senior channel, we would have conducted 4 deals for the analyzed period with the total of +63-53-28-76=-94 points loss
With additional conditions we got by (9+2+4+6=21) 21 trades more with the total amount of
1 series) +6+27+11++27+23+30+28+8-35=+65
2 series) +28-70=-42
3 series) +15+23-15-49=-26
4 series) +4+18+16+5+16-37=+22
The total of +19 points on the additional TP (do not forget that the spread has not been taken into account)
What conclusions can be drawn.
You guys stop it! There's a bunch of advanced people moving their lips trying to get into the subject, and you delete!
Do you think that if no one writes, no one reads?
I'd like to hear questions, comments, suggestions from "wiggling their lips". Don't be stingy, comrades. Or is everyone making councillors up in secret?
P.S. But I'm not. Before you ask me anything, ask yourself whether I have read everything. Otherwise, some people get offended.
I don't understand about the zeros.
Applied to the data received or what? In the current moment? I don't really understand the request.
"Zeros in the tester report" is when the final profit is over 1000000 =)))
I meant that if you start choosing trading criteria, you can get carried away with making virtual profits, and forget about analysis...
Analysis - yes, to any data. Just an example of analysis: "here is the EURUSD H1 chart for such and such period, here are the statistics, draw such and such conclusions, etc.".