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30% - for how long did you take the test? 30% per month for 3-4 years on one currency pair with normal drawdown (20-30%) is a myth.
I think that analysis of changes, no matter deposit or currency pair, should be counted in pips, not in %.
It is very interesting to see how much each currency pair goes over a year, six months, a quarter,
month, week, day, etc. Why guess by coffee grounds - 10% or 30% per month,
You can calculate the change of each currency pair to the pip accuracy and then calculate the % change. :)
If you look at the statistics for 29 years, you'll see for example that EUR/USD
only 14 pips, EUR/GBP only 6 pips and GBP/USD only 2 pips, and if you look at
the other periods, then... Yeah, as for the wave theory, you have to draw your own conclusions...
I think that only a comprehensive analysis on all VPs and all timeframes
will allow you to understand the laws by which financial markets "work".
Enclosed is the data on changes in quotations for each month for 28 c.p.
where are the quotes for 29 years from?
i was especially surprised that the eu has 29 years of quotes.
my stats are different - i really read the quotes from the METAQUOTES historical data base
Average daily move
2007 73п
2006 95п
2005 112п
2004 126п
2003 117п
2002 86п
2001 103п
there are no more REAL quotes, the eu was born recently 7 years ago
the only thing we can say from these statistics is that volatility goes down every year
again, the statistics of a whole month for a currency is not very interesting, moreover a year
wait for a month or a year life is short I want to make money now
If you look at 29 years of statistics, you will see, for example, that EUR/USD has a monthly average of
only 14 pips passes, ...
In the appendix data on the change in quotations for each month at 28p.
Alex, something is not working for me.
Took (a long time ago on Spider) the history of the Euro since 1947 (there is one :) )
For 1978 there is daily data there. Looked only January and February 1978 and compared with yours.
I got: the average daily movement in January was 72p, in February it was 52p.
Monthly movement range (H-L) in January 429p, in February 487p.
It is not clear what data you have in column D (d5,d6,d7...)?
You have d6-d5=441 p, d7-d6=86 p, you then add them up and find the average, as you write, of 14 points.
Maybe you have Close February - Close January = 441 p. ???
there are no more REAL quotes, the eu was born basically 7 years ago
7 years ago the euro went into cash circulation, and there has been a synthetic euro exchange rate since 1947.
If you look at 29 years of statistics, you will see, for example, that EUR/USD has a monthly average of
only 14 pips...
Attached is data on the change in quotations for each month at 28p.
Alex, something is not working for me.
Took (a long time ago on Spider) a history of the Euro since 1947 (there is one :) )
For 1978 there is daily data there. Looked only January and February 1978 and compared with yours.
I got it: average daily movement in January was 72p, in February it was 52p.
Monthly movement range (H-L) in January 429p, in February 487p.
It is not clear what data you have in column D (d5,d6,d7...)?
You have d6-d5=441 p, d7-d6=86 p, you then add them up and find the average, as you write, of 14 points.
Maybe you have Close February - Close January = 441 p. ???
EUR history since 1947!
hell why not take it from christ's birthday!
are you kidding?
the real story is from 2000! all the rest is ( INDEX of currencies that died after the euro )
We should say that before 2000 we have EURUSD INDEX and after 2000 we have EURUSD Quotes
the index, unlike a currency pair
there may be completely different HAIs and LOVES
there are no more REAL quotes, the eu was born recently 7 years ago
The euro went into cash circulation 7 years ago, and there has been a synthetic euro exchange rate since 1947.
that's what I understand! that the euro was synthetically collected from all the euro pairs that were replaced by the euro
The history of the EURO before 2000 is something like an index of the Euro currencies
So we don't get analytical statistics, but synthetic statistics.
WHAT A SYNTHETIC STATE IS! I hope most people understand
in a nutshell
synthetic = more coarse!
analytical = more accurate
The average cable module cannot be 2 pips because it has a monthly swing of about one and a half to two times that of the EUR.
Exactly 1.28 times.
The monthly average spreads since 1990:
- EURUSD 524 pips.
- GBPUSD 673 p
NYROBA, this is bad analysis - or fraud. The average modulus change in the eu for a month is not 14, but many more points, times 25-30. The average modulus for cable cannot be 2 pips as it has a monthly spread - about one and a half or two times that of the euras.
I'm talking about the spread, not the difference in closing prices. You're working on waves, right?
I haven't even looked at your file yet as I know your analysis is wrong.
Mathematician, bad analysis or good analysis is not for me to judge. I analyse closing prices because when I check the formulas,
there's the smallest margin of error. Let me explain with an example, just one formula, i.e. at 3 bp and on a monthly timeframe.
Believe me, about the same error on other timeframes.
Take a look at the appendix.
the history of the euro since 1947!
hell why not take it from christ's birthday!
Are you kidding?
The real history is from 2000! All the rest is (INDEX of currencies that died after the euro was introduced)
We should say that before 2000 we have EURUSD INDEX and after 2000 we have EURUSD Quotes
the index, unlike a currency pair
there may be completely different KAIs and LOVES
"On 1 January 1999 at 0.00 a.m. European time, the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) introduced a single currency, the euro (EUR). From that moment on, the exchange rates of the national currencies of the member states were firmly fixed against the euro and the euro became a full-fledged monetary unit in its own right. At that stage, both the euro and national currencies operated in parallel and on equal footing. Trading in the euro started on 4 January 1999."
"From 01.01.2002 for a period to be determined by each country independently (but not exceeding 6 months) banknotes and coins in euro were put into circulation replacing the previous banknotes and coins in national currencies. For half a year, the old national banknotes and coins could still circulate on a par with the euro. However, after 01.06.2002 the euro becomes the only legal tender in the Eurozone countries."
I think it is better to prove this than to mention in vain two such opposing personalities in the same sentence :)
where did the 29 year quotes come from?
i was especially surprised that the eur has been quoted for 29 years
my stats are different - i really read the quotes from the METAQUOTES historical data base
Average daily move
2007 73п
2006 95п
2005 112п
2004 126п
2003 117п
2002 86п
2001 103п
there are no more REAL quotes, the eu was born recently 7 years ago
the only thing we can say from these statistics is that volatility goes down every year
again, the statistics of a whole month for a currency is not very interesting, moreover a year
one has to wait for a month or a year life is short, one wants to earn money now
Let's go one by one. Where did the Euro/Dollar quotes come from in 29 years?
I reconstructed the quotes, i.e. divided the closing prices of EUR/JPY into USD/JPY
and got EUR/USD, then used formulas to calculate missing quotations for the other VPs.
Calculated quotes in the file "Monthly Global Pair Analysis" are highlighted in gray.
I take closing prices because I consider them the most reliable indicator, the arguments are given above.
It is not correct to make analysis limited to one month only, I do a global analysis from one year to
28bp minutes. As for the daily analysis, i guess you calculate: max day -min day = pips,
I do it the other way, i.e. close price difference. I do it both with the sign (+/-) and modulo.
positive sign (+) shows ascending trend
a negative sign (-) shows a downtrend
If we look at my daily analysis, the EUR/USD=2 pips (modulo = 52)
EUR/GBP = 0 pips (modulo = 18) and GBP/USD = 3 pips (modulo = 74)
The amplitude of fluctuations at a "specially selected" time interval shows what kind of pattern is formed.
With the help of a certain set of rules I am modelling the future price behaviour at each pips separately,
Then I check my forecast using 23 formulas - it allows reducing the entire analysis to one variant.
All calculations are accompanied by graphical drawings.
I've never seen the analysis method I've developed on the Internet.
see the appendix.