What 4 factors do you think the price depends on? - page 2

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khorosh:

Post the formulas for calculating these values.

The formulas are cumbersome, but absolutely accurate. They always give the computationally-accurate values of the sums of actual and calculated price values of any selected calculation period. I will give them, if necessary.
 
Yousufkhodja Sultonov:
You have to try it, something might work out. Let F1 be demand and F2 be supply, F3 be the dollar index and F4 be the gold price. Please give me 20 supply and demand values at the opening of the EUR/USD daily candle, F3 and F4.
Run Quick, select the instrument and make a screenshot or upload to excel. What is the problem?
 
Andrey F. Zelinsky:

justa "point of reference" - nothing more - no forecast, no analysis, no evaluation of price behavior - your factors won't work - if they did, the technical analysis would work

it's the "margin of error" that makes all the difference - the margin of error is what economists like to say "the price is all set".

When a trend changes from uptrend to downtrend, the ratios are pre-tuned to that pattern. We should be trying to find a pattern of reversing the sign of the coefficients. They can't change all at once. There has to be an incubation period. Changes in the 5 coefficients at once should change the price, or rather, the price changes all 5 coefficients. Let's look at the dynamics of this transformation.
 
Evgeny Belyaev:
Start Quick, select a tool and take a screenshot, or upload to excel. What exactly is the problem?
I haven't mastered this procedure yet. If it's not difficult, please make an excel file (with commas, not dots) and post it here. I'll do the calculations in no time.
 
Yousufkhodja Sultonov:
When a trend changes from uptrend to downtrend, the coefficients are pre-tuned to that way. We must try to find a pattern of reversing the sign of the coefficients. They can't change all at once. There has to be an incubation period. Changes in the 5 coefficients at once should change the price, or rather, the price changes all 5 coefficients. Let's look at the dynamics of this transformation.
Taleb's "Black Swan" -- can help build a formula -- it's all about the crucial "margin of error" there
 

1. Length of women's skirts

2. the Big Mac Index

3. Google domestic trends

4. Stochastic indicator

 
Yousufkhodja Sultonov:

I tried from OHLC - to no avail. From the previous 4 price values - no results, or rather there is a big lag. Suggest your own variants.

It is necessary to consider OHLC in several timeframes, and then you may be able to achieve results.
 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:

1. Length of women's skirts

2. the Big Mac Index

3. Google domestic trends

4. Stochastic indicator

The length of skirts is discarded, because we cannot follow them - they change more often than the price, and they shorten and/or fall to zero. The algorithm doesn't get it. But with readings of 4 different indicators - this is a good clue. You can have 4 identical indicators with different periods or 4 different indicators with one period.
 
Andrey F. Zelinsky:
Taleb's "Black Swan" -- can help build a formula -- it's all about the crucial "margin of error" there
It's amazing, I agree.
 
Andrey F. Zelinsky:
Taleb's "The Black Swan" may help to construct a formula - it talks about the decisive "margin of error".
It's a lot of lyrics, 95%. But it's a useful book, it can influence one's outlook.
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