Predicting the characteristics of weekly bars (championship).
My first prediction for the coming week:
EUR/USD- high 1.0840; low 1 .0670
XAU/USD - high 1102.00; low 1075.00
USD/CAD- high 1.4210; low 1 .3810
USD/RUB- high 79.10; low 75.10
Current closing price of the week:EUR/USD - 1.0794; XAU/USD- 1097.59;
USD/CAD - 1 .4128; USD/RUB- 78.247;
The first one was a real bummer. The only thing that coincided a bit was the low ruble. So the scores are as follows:
EUR/USD was forecast -high 1 .0840; low 1 .0670
result -high 1 .0967; low 1 .0789-5 points for high forecast and-10 points for low
XAU/USD- forecast high 1102.00;low 1075.00
r esult - high 1127.82;low 1096.96 -8 points for high forecast and-10 points for low
USD/CAD- it was forecast -high 1 .4210;low 1 .3810
result - high 1 .4325;low 1 .3947 -2 points for high forecast and-5 points for low
USD/RUB- was forecast -high 79.10;low 75.10
r esult -high 82.040 ;low 74.338 -5 points for high forecast and+8 points for low
Total score -5-10-8-10-2-5-5+8=-37 points.
My next forecast for the coming week:
EUR/USD- high 1 .0910; low 1.0720
XAU/USD- high 1123.00; low 1097.00
USD/CAD- high 1 .4180; low 1 .3810
USD/RUB- high 76.70; low 72.30
Don't be shy gentlemen - get involved. Publish your own forecasts. If you learn to more or less accurately predict the next week's ranges, that would be a gold mine. You may trade by hand, or set expected directions and ranges to your robot. In general,there area lot of possibilities.
the eurodollar is now flat, which started last winter, and since December the euro has been in a narrow consolidation corridor... I think the pair is likely to stay in the range of 1.07063 - 1.10573
although there's a great entry point even closer... resistance at 1.09917 I'll wait for the prey)
I love this market formation, when the entry is just perfect - a sharp volatile jump in the market, preferably one or two candles to the resistance point and momentum fading ... and start to salt)
it will also be necessary to watch out for breakdowns, with a long stagnation, both bulls and bears are grinding their tits and getting very bored, so then the market may go off the chain....)
Don't be shy gentlemen - get involved. Publish your own forecasts. If you learn to more or less accurately predict the next week's ranges, that would be a gold mine. You may trade by hand, or set expected directions and ranges to your robot. In general, there area lot of possibilities.
It is impossible to predict the price for the week, only guess if you are lucky. There are a lot of analyst-predictors on the logs, they are usually wrong even with the direction.
It's like the weather in St. Petersburg - recently it was -25, and then the day jumped to plus)) Gismeoteo rests ))
the eurodollar is now flat, which started last winter, and since December the euro has been in a rather narrow consolidation corridor... I think the pair is likely to stay in the range of 1.07063 - 1.10573
although there's a great entry point even closer... resistance at 1.09917 I'll wait for the prey)
I love this market formation, when the entry is just perfect - a sharp volatile jump in the market, preferably one or two candles to the resistance point and momentum fading ... and start to salt)
it will also be necessary to watch out for breakdowns, with a long stagnation, both bulls and bears are grinding their tits and getting very bored, so then the market may go off the chain....)
Yes, the range has established a narrow one. The reasoning is that there is a difference in monetary policy between the two central banks, the ECB and the FED, or rather the market's expectations of their policies. For a year and a half now, the US central bank is expected to raise rates aggressively, while the ECB is expected to conduct an aggressive quantitative easing. However, neither of them happened (at least, not the way the market expected), the exchange rate stuck in a narrow range - there is nothing to fall down, and there is nothing to grow on.
Now, closer to the March meetings of those two central banks, a new wave of hysteria will start, with the Fed sure to raise the rate in March and the ECB sure to increase the volume of tapering.As a result of this hysteria, if nothing sensational happens, Euro may fall below year-earlier lows in March, which will be close to parity, for instance 1.03. Respectively, gold will go to 1040, and oil will go under $25. The ruble will move between 90 and 100, and the Canadian currency will move to the beautiful figure 1.5555.
If something cataclysmic happens, for instance, in Europe, e.g. a sudden inflation increase and deflation and unemployment growth in the states, the situation will be reversed.
There is no way to predict the price for the week, only to guess if you are lucky. There are a lot of predictive analysts here on the logs, usually wrong even with the direction.
It's like the weather in St. Petersburg - recently it was -25, and then the day jumped to plus )) Gismeoteo rests ))
EUR/USD was forecast - high 1.0910; low 1.0720
result - high 1.1248; low 1.0814 -8 points for high and -10 points for low
result - high 1174.26; low 1115.16 -8 points for high forecast and -10 points for low
result - high 1.4102; low 1.3638 0 points for high forecast and -8 points for low
score - high 79.628; low 75.201 -6 points for a high forecast and -10 points for a low forecast
EUR/USD - high 1.1200; low 1.0960
XAU/USD - high 1175.00; low 1130.00
USD/CAD - high 1.4290; low 1.3780
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I have invented a useful and entertaining competition theme - every week, anyone can post a forecast of the parameters of a future weekly candle -high, low, open, close. Monday is a deadline. The number of pairs, the number of parameters in a pair, in the sense that it's not necessary to forecast all four parameters, it is possible to forecast two or even one. After the close of the next week the forecast is evaluated in points. Scores of each participant are accumulated, and after some period it will be possible to objectively estimate who and how accurately the future can be seen. The same genius traders-hedgers, of which there are a dense number in this forum, can create a robot that will automatically predict characteristics of a weekly candlestick, and the author can place them in a branch. If the forecasts are successful, it will advertise their creation. In general, something like a championship ersatz, with a prize in the form of the public worship in narrow circles.
It is clear that the scoring system should be transparent, understandable, universal (the same for all pairs) and independent of the number of forecasts - i.e. if few forecasts are made, but more precise, the total score is higher than if a lot of inaccurate forecasts are made.
As a starting point, I propose the following evaluation method:
The most accurate and the most inaccurate predictions are evaluated with the same number of positive and negative points. This is to weed out the occasional good or bad prediction. Minimal/minimal points are set to 10, with an appropriate sign.
There is a close price of week and the difference between it and future actual value is 100%. If it's within +/- 10 percent, you get the maximum positive point, if it's below 100 percent, you get the maximum negative point and, somewhere in the middle, you get zero.
For example, the euro closing price was 1.0912, last week's high was 1.0975, the difference is 63 points. If someone forecastedhigh- 1.0970 or 1.0980, they would get 10 points, and if they forecast 1.1040 and beyond - 10 points.
It is clear that so far the scoring system is approximate, but it can be further improved.