The oil issue ... - page 9
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We do not need to sell, we need to create... Everyone is used to buy and sell...
It will be 10 years before such a thing is created. This issue is well researched. It's not a buy-sell, it's an agency agreement (almost a dealer).
There is no need to create anything. Our market is not that large, we are not China with a population of a billion.
Let's break the problem down into its components:
First, the cost of producing a barrel of oil.
US: oil shale (which is what we are talking about) has reduced the cost to $16 thanks to plasma fracturing, actively conducting research to reduce the cost to $10
Russia: $15, there is no exploration, costs are being optimized (i.e. workers are being laid off). Guess who will be the first out of the race?
Saudis: Surprise surprise, the production cost per barrel is $2
Pruff on the cost of oil production would be nice.
A brief reference to the cost of oil production would be nice.
I won't post the proof (paid analytics). But here's an old September public one http://rusjev.net/2015/08/26/v-ssha-sebestoimost-dobyichi-slantsevoy-nefti-upala-do-20-dollarov/
), it's understandable to take your word for it.
In the USA, I have seen figures of at least 20
In Russia, 16 (under development), where the infrastructure is well-developed, 6.
Saudis 4.
Pruth? I will not lay it out (paid analytics))
In addition, you need to consider the volume of what is produced and the volume of consumption, not just the cost of production.
the cost of production was the same as it was before and the price of oil was higher, it does not fit with the theory of falling costs.
http://glav.su/threads/1023016/
), it's understandable to take your word for it.
In the US, I have seen figures of at least 20
In Russia, 16 (under development), where the infrastructure is well-developed, 6.
Saudis 4.
Pruth? I will not lay it out (paid analytics))
In addition you need to consider the volume of what is produced and the volume of consumption, not just the cost of production.
The cost of production was the same before and the price of oil was higher, it does not fit with the theory of declining production costs.
http://glav.su/threads/1023016/
And I don't link the fall in price to the fall in production costs. I associate the fall in price with geopolitical tambourine dancing.
And the cost of production shows the approximate levels to which they will fight.
SZS Do not take our word for it, just when you come across similar information again from other sources, take it seriously and do not dismiss it.
Nikolay Demko:
Guess who gets out of the race first?
i.e. i didn't guess? )
the main goal is to dump the competitor from the market. is this the same geopolitics?
the main trump card is low cost, they won't go any lower?
And I don't attribute the fall in price to a fall in production costs. I associate the fall in price with geopolitical tambourine dancing.
And the cost of production shows the approximate levels to which they will fight.
I must have misunderstood.
I don't need to take your word for it, but when you come across similar information again from other sources, take it seriously instead of dismissing it.
you can go back and forth on a network of "sources".
They're information battles.
I must have misunderstood.
Well, it's possible to accumulate on a network of "sources".
It's an infobattle.
I'm not waging war, I'm just giving you information to think about.
Well, that's understandable.)
I'm also here to chat, not to prove a point.
Wondering :
The price of oil is falling, OPEC is not cutting production, the US is starting to export oil for the first time in 75 years, which it was not buying at current prices.
WHAT IS THIS?
In practice the more commodity and supply the lower the price, does the majority want to collapse the price of oil to 5-6$ ??? then production itself will become unprofitable.
Who needs it?
What will happen next?
What to hope for?
And when will it end?
Let's try to understand it at least a bit, are there any experts on oil ? I don't understand anything at all....
Oil derivatives trade volumes are tens of times higher than the underlying asset (spot oil) and the contracts are non-deliverable. Therefore, given arbitrage, derivatives rule the spot prices, not the other way round. Therefore, consumption and production volumes are secondary in determining the price and they are always almost equal. Of course, there is a link between production and consumption and the oil price, but it is on very long term intervals. Like if the price falls too low, many people will find it unprofitable to produce and production will fall and there will be a gap with consumption. Or vice versa, a price that is too expensive will reduce consumption. But these processes can take years to develop with supplier substitution etc.
I.e. there is, of course, a fair price for oil due to production and consumption, but the price can dance around it for years in a wide range. That is why OPEC, oil shale and the US are all reasons to play, while financial capitals determine prices for speculative purposes or to redistribute the market. One can understand their games post factum and not always. So one can only hope that sooner or later the price will return to 'fair', hence the forecasts of the oil companies. But that may take several years. Put the MA on a monthly chart with a period of 10 years and it will be a fair price))