a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 268
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Given my recent experience ( "Waiting for update again" - last post) :), I recommend as an alternative ... MT4 :) . At least it beats all matcad programs in its ability to display long series :) . I really didn't work with Matcad, but it should certainly export data in text format.
Given my recent experience ( "Waiting for update again" - last post) :), I recommend as an alternative . MT4 :) . At least it beats all matrix programs in its ability to display long series :) . I really didn't work with matkad, but it should certainly export data in text format.
Thanks for the tip. :о)))) Matcad can export data. The sample length is good enough, but the number of functions on one graph is a problem. Alright, I'll figure it out.
Question: is there a description of the *.hst file format somewhere or is this the only way to get it out of other programmes?
Thank you in advance.
"MQL4: Using the Quote Archive" Renat 10.06.2006 22:57
One of the examples of juggling with *hst files
"MQL4: Charts Without Sunday Bars"
I've had a cold beer and I'm getting philosophical. I do not know what kindergarten you were brought up in, but we were told that complex systems must be broken down into basic independent elements for analysis. This, so to say, is the basis of worldview, I can not add anything here, because it should be learned really in kindergarten, otherwise it is too late. My calculations show that such elements in the financial system are currencies, and not the exchange rates of these currencies. What are the consequences of this fact. The foundations and the basic motive factors first influence the currencies, and the consequence is the exchange rates of those currencies.
How to calculate these currencies is left aside, since the term "world currencies" does not fit perfectly, we should probably talk about cluster-currencies. In Semen Semenych's transformation, each currency is a cluster currency and there is a zymus in it. But I don't.
So the idea is that currencies themselves are more predictable than their exchange rates. In fact if the basic independent element is the currency and contains some information (dynamic) about the market, then the exchange rate as a ratio of currencies contains half as much information. In general, the H-Valatility of these currencies shows it. I will refer to this volatility as kagi volatility, it is just more convenient to write. And accordingly kagi-arbitrage. Kagi arbitrage of currencies is twice as much as kagi arbitrage of exchange rates. I did this measurement on my conversion. In general this is understandable, because kagi volatility, hearst index, informativity, entropy arbitrage, predictability all somewhere, somehow it all hangs around the same pillar. The ratio of two basic quantities carries half as much information - clearly there were two stochastic quantities became one. the measurement of kagiobrittability also confirms this.
What is the mechanism for reducing the arbitrability of exchange rates. I think it lies in the area of coherence, the Morua phenomenon and other similar. The trouble is that currency trading is the same as exchange rate trading. And if there is no normal trading, i.e. a normal trading system, these phenomena will not help. And if you have a normal trading, then you should trade currencies and pay attention to synchronism, at least with the same backtesting. And if you pay attention to synchronicity, the arbitrage of such trading should increase 4 times compared to kagi arbitrage of exchange rates. This is so-called linear trading, i.e. trading with constant lot, in this case stability indices such as profit factor, recoverability and other linear indicators should also increase 4 times. And if MM is added here it is clear that this fourfold increase in degree and it gives 16 times more profitability. It is clear that this is in the ideal and on condition of initial normal trading. But nevertheless I hope the real profit may be considerable.
Unfortunately I personally don't have a normal system that would provide more or less stable parameters and therefore there is no point in getting into this area, but I will certainly keep it in mind.
I could try just kagi trading, but it seems to me it is nothing more than frustration.
Good luck.
PS. Beer has gone so well. And the kagi volatility of the cluster currency behaves very different from the kagi currency volatility and the kagi exchange rate volatility, it has in the region of zero to about 30 pips almost a constant band, i.e. very good trendiness respectively representativeness. This is why Senenich's law stating that the potential of a currency movement is equal to the difference of cluster currencies may have a very good reason. Obviously, due to summing of currencies small noises are smoothed out and cluster currency becomes more predictable up to the certain noise level, and then the kagi volatility of the cluster currency becomes similar to the kagi volatility of a currency. All in all not a shoddy direction in itself either, but as I see it, it already sits in the cluster indicators, although there is a lot to bang on about in this transformation.
PSS. I have my doubts about trading with Kagi, but it seems to me that it should not work, or will work in the area of profit/loss around 1.1 and in general it brings nothing new except frustration. But in general I think that when some currency reversal happens we wait for the reversal of the next currency, if these two reversals coincide within some time frame we should make a real trade. If the reversal is a currency turn, only a specific trading system can tell you, preferably working.
I AM NOT GOING TO TELL YOU WHAT THE REVERSAL IS. In fact, these studies turned me on for a completely different reason, as I wanted to see to what extent a financial system is a meta-system. But a negative result is also a result.
In a metasystem the basic elements will not be currencies, not exchange rates, but circular invariants, that is my suggestion. In general the financial system anyway should be a metasystem, but just the fact that it is divided into currencies shows that it is a Christian metasystem - roughly speaking, to work for money is saoobman (that's what the Bolsheviks said so much in 17) all the arbitrage is removed in large fractals, in simple terms at the interbank. In general, the main danger in trading is always self-deception, but the whole beauty of this art is just to overcome the self-deception, which gives a person an unprecedented satisfaction, confidence and of course an amazing (I hope) profit.
If the exchange rate were tied to a physical process, the exchange rates would probably be the base value.
And if democracy existed, that is, everyone would have equal opportunities, as is declared, but not fulfilled (I note that we are not talking about Russia, but the entire world community, because banks remove all arbitrage), the basis would be the same knugovyh invariants, That is, arbitrage would be available to all and we would see the dynamics of these invariants and the corresponding transitions - but they don't exist, just like there is no democracy and everything else that is on TV and on the radio and everything else that everyone has known for a long time.
But the "but" is that you cannot fool anyone without fooling yourself. I.e. if you trade correctly you can increase profitability up to 16 times (which is a lot, may be it is proportional to the amount of beer?)
In general, breakdown by currency makes the monetary system stable, but it is to the detriment of real stability. This is precisely the consequence of self-delusion. As an example the terrible imbalance in the trade deficit of the pindos and probably a bunch of other things.
The real metasystem should be unstable, thus ensuring maximum adaptation. Global warming, for example, is also unstable, and it may also be related to the "stability" of the financial system, because the main criterion for success of absolutely everything is profitability, and the stability of this criterion is provided by the false stability of the financial system. To break this criterion and thereby oppose global warming, within the framework of the real shaping of our society, i.e. the financial system, is simply impossible, because the stability of the financial system is fictitious, just like the society itself is fictitious and all that - well the Bolsheviks talked about it so much in 17. Vova and some of them.
All in all it is not as abstract as it seems in the background of these examples. The fictional stability of the financial system creates real instability of real subjects, in particular the stability of the family. The divorce rate is around 50 percent. While the instability of natural metasystems is around 3 per cent. Unfortunately, this affects everyone because humans do not spring from abstract concepts and are born out of humans and their relationships. The more unstable these relations, the more unstable a person is and this is felt as fear, dissatisfaction and so on. That's bullshit.
Should we be upset about that? Of course not. We should look for weaknesses in the system and take advantage of them, this destroys the system and brings it to its proper state. An example is the Soviet Union. Eventually, the formal system stopped functioning at all, but the common people did not live badly off the systems of acquaintances, blat and the like, which eventually brought satisfaction and a kind of well-being, self-sufficient in a really working system.
I hope that the place where we ended up as a result of perestroika and other such things, which simply cannot be described without obscene words and are therefore not worthy of mentioning, will nevertheless be found by using the methods we are used to.
In short, seek, test and profiteer!
Amen.
We're out of beer.
Good luck to all.
Unfortunately, I haven't yet studied the introduction of the universal currency, but I'm already asking a question (sorry :o). Have I understood correctly the main purpose: the forecast is made for universal currency, and the results of the forecast are already recalculated to specific quotes? Or is it needed for something else?
I don't know what kindergarten you grew up in, but we were told that complex systems should be broken down into basic independent elements for analysis. It is so to say the basis of world outlook, I cannot add anything here as it is necessary to learn it in a kindergarten, otherwise it will be too late.
...
If by the division of complex systems into basic independent elements you meant, for example, complete or partial disassembly of a locomotive, our kindergartens do not differ.
And as for cluster indicators or world currencies (have already looked closely), I found nothing in that (this is my personal opinion, based on the same "analysis" that you performed as well, although kindergartens are different). I am now done with beer (working hard) and I cannot write such a long text popularly explaining the inconsistency of such an approach. I shall remind only the basics from my kindergarten, to predict the simple always turns out easier and more reliable, than the complex (and "simple" in our case is one of the most complicated phenomena of nature, if certainly not to separate the man from it)
It does not pull on philosophy at all...but anyway.
Good luck to you.
Hmmm... I hadn't thought about the H-volatility of currency indices. Maybe there's something to it, see pic:
You can see that the cagey construction of the index shows a more predictable behaviour than the exchange rate. Except that we will not trade it, but the exchange rate.
I'm honing my channel duration prediction. A "at random" selected time period. The vertical red line - symbolizes the current time frame. The horizontal line - the current price (H+L)/2.
Here is the forecast itself calculated for the entire sample (200 channels). For Y, the number of samples, on which there will be a channel corresponding to the X price chart reading (shown above)
I have specially selected the current sample so as not to "capture" a new movement. The calculation is based on estimating the contribution of each structure into the channel. The model is not complete yet, but I think it will be completed in a short time.
Count 0: channel length 200 counts
Count 162: channel length 38 counts
If the topic is still alive, for those who want to use a potential energy model (PE), I found this interesting material the other day (highly recommended):
http://grasn.narod.ru/U/001.pdf
I calculated my PE model somewhat differently. But the material I think is really interesting and could be discussed.
PS: The quality is a bit lame, but more or less readable.