a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 13
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You don't think I'm too lazy to do a job that has nothing to do with my trading? And why? I'm not selling anything and I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything.) I was asked to tell you about the strategy, I told you :). If you want to check it for yourself - I used to "play" this way at "White Collar"(http://forum.traders.kiev.ua/)- this is a forum of independent Ukrainian traders, my nickname is the same as at VG Spider - you can look there and compare dates and the subsequent price movement. I used to make real time forecasts. Then I got bored. It's an extra commitment. But recently there was a problem with the forum - I haven't looked there since.
IMHO - general laziness is a great engine of progress: if it were not for this feeling the mankind would still be living in caves and chasing a game with legs :).
And as for the current trade - I am still long on Euro - as I got off at 1.1871 (the price did not get to 1.1855, otherwise I would have got an order there as well ;) - I wrote above). A couple of times the structure was defined as unstable and then as stable upward - as there was no stable structure in the opposite direction - I just hold the previous position. At the moment 1.2207 is defined as the target. A return below 1.2146 might change the priorities. Breakdown of 1.2207 will open the way to the area of 1.2329. We shall see.
Good luck and passing trends.
Thank you!
That's enough of answering questions.
You have to know the measure in everything, or they are already sitting on your neck.
Enough of answering questions.
You have to know the measure in everything, otherwise they already sit on your neck.
It's not like I'm forcing people to answer my questions. It's just that if a person reads this forum all the time and can answer, why not answer if they know the answer? This is the purpose of this forum, isn't it? Tell me, what is the point of asking those who only think they know how to work in FOREX? After all, one answer from a really competent person may be more valuable than hundreds of books read in vain and save you a lot of your own time! And even more so, I think that other people may also be interested in Vladislava's answers.
So you read the forum. You say you have a big, fully automated strategy. They are trading and making money. Many people are not able to properly program. They still need to learn programming languages. What if they do not know how to program properly? And they also need to acquire skills. Why should everybody waste their time? Maybe you can save all a huge amount of time and put your hard-written automated system? After all, the forum exists for this very purpose - there are even tags to paste the code. And moreover, I think other people may also be interested in your system.
Forme personally it would be interesting not in terms of trading as such (I haven't traded manually for a long time and unlikely will in the future, because IMHO manual trades are good only for losing money), but in terms of the fact that your methodology may work not only for the last few months, but even beyond. And it will become an even greater incentive to automate it for myself!
Although I don't see any problem with sharing my strategy on the methodology level. In principle, I have already described the basis of my strategy in this thread. We divide the market into 2 phases. The first one is active (strong trend, news etc) and calm (sideways). The division is done on the basis of the standard indicator, included in MT4, called Standard Deviation. We set limit orders to buy and sell. Setting levels are calculated on the basis of the formula, which has the same meaning as the formula "continuation of movement" like S=Vt (where V is speed and t is time). That is, using data of the last closed candle from the selected timeframe, we know conditionally the speed and direction of the movement continuation at the same speed if the price keeps moving at the same place or changes the direction to the opposite. Then, during optimization in the tester, we determine the optimal factors for recalculating the points of placing orders, as well as stop and take profit points. We organize several trading lines in the system for different timeframes. Another addition to the system is the use of a lock, i.e. opening of a position in both directions before the limit order triggers. When a limit order triggers, a lock order that was opposite in direction is closed automatically. The use of a lock in the system is of course not fundamental, but it allows you to increase the profit margin by simply increasing the number of working lots. Also, when dividing market phases into active and quiet, I do not delete pending orders set, but modify them so that they cannot trigger in order to bypass the possibility of opening double orders in MT4. For example, I move order parameters by 5000 pips to the corresponding side. Then, when the market becomes calm according to the deviation indicator, I return them to the necessary place for their triggering. As the deposit grows, I increase lot size I enter the market with. Average rates of this strategy are about 18% per month with 20% maximal drawdown. These strategy values are obtained from 1.5 year test results on M1 history. Also it should be immediately noted that the first month of the strategy is a trigger one due to the effect of interdependent trades. That is, in the first month of such trading there may be no profit at all. The first 2-3 weeks of work after the start-up are usually characterized by drawdown, which does not exceed the above-mentioned, but the month may end up with zero profit or with a slight profit of 5-10%. Usually profit starts to appear in the second month, when the system enters the desired operating mode. That is, all positions opened from a lantern in the initial moment of the system start are gone, and the system has already made the sequence of deals that do not have memory about that very "lantern" moment of system start. At the end of 3-6 months the system is already reaching the specified parameters of profitability. Generally speaking, the algorithm is not complicated. So far I can't show any conclusive results in terms of real trading, as I have started the system less than a month ago and now have about -8% drawdown. But test results so far give me some hope that this system has some chances to work in the future. Test results:
To what extent the test results are a "fit with the story" I don't know. Here the future will show how wrong I am in my assumptions. I think it will be possible to see the results in the next 2-3 months.
Well, in terms of methodology I have probably told no less than Vladislava. Immediately I can say that his strategy should work more reliably and better than mine. But as they say, we work with what we have :o). I'm trying to improve it by different methods. And the method for determining the relevance of the regression channel using the Hurst index, suggested by Vladislavom, I am very interested and that's why I'm trying to learn something from him. After all, the man in his strategy is not reasoning with some images, patterns and waves, with which all the Forex forums are flooded with, but the man has numerical estimates! And believe me, this is a VERY big rarity in this difficult business - basically everyone prefers to make unsubstantiated statements without giving any numbers! That's why his opinion on any subject can be really valuable and prove useful to other people in practical terms.
mswork, do you have any ideas of your own that you are working on now? Share them please! Looking forward to it.
Can I ask why the correct market entry cannot be calculated?
After all, the historical data is available.
How does the entry differ in principle from the continuation?
Can I ask why the correct market entry cannot be calculated?
After all, historical data is available.
How is entry fundamentally different from continuation work?
Basically, this suggestion has a rational basis. Indeed, if we calculate where the system positions will be located at its start a month earlier on the history, we can probably find the most convenient points of entry for different branches of the system. But how it can be automatically realized, if we cannot start the tester from the Expert Advisor? Besides, we will probably have to spend a lot of time at the monitor launching strategy branches manually, based on the history test data. With the current possibilities I can just wait a month on a small deposit with minimal risk, and then the next month add a deposit and increase the lot.
Yellow is what it looks like after conversion, the 'comet tail' from bar 0.
Green is the end from time.
This way this indicator can be used rather in the secondary analysis, like the divergence, but carefully.
At http://forex.kbpauk.ru/showflat .php/Cat/0/Number/100566/an/0/page/0#100566, there are a couple of similar indicators, but the same beautiful picture is obtained in a simpler way.
It is clear that one wants to have "miracle lines" - smooth, harmonious, "wise", "prophetic", but not those hedgehogs of quotes under one's nose.
But their majesties the facts ... Alas - this is reality.
Dear solandr, I may (or may not) have been a bit tactless in my remarks. I apologize for that. They only appeared after Vladislav repeatedly said, "I have already given you the methodology, the rest is up to you to work on, I don't want to provide a ready solution". On the one hand, it was interesting to read Vladislav's answers, and without your questions they probably wouldn't have appeared, but on the other hand, I didn't like the way you got answers from Vladislav. You know, childish naivety and at the same time you say that you are an excellent programmer who has decided to use only automatic trading strategies in the market. But then again, this is just my subjective opinion.
I do not want to "share" with you and I leave this thread. I'm just in the mood and I have no desire to, I'm interested in other things now, so please don't judge. Perhaps Alex Niroba, who started this thread, will tell us more about the tip of the iceberg or the roof of a multi-storey building? (See, how I immediately shift the emphasis?)
What you are doing in your strategy, there is no originality there - you are optimising the parameters with a lag for the current market phase, although the phases are constantly changing from channel to trend. It is possible that combining analysis of multiple timeframes simultaneously adds statistical advantage, but then again, different timeframes may have different local persistence and antipersistence (you should read (if you have not already done so) the Peters book "Chaos and order in capital markets", you can download online, for example http://stock01. The Hearst Ratio was popularized from there and applied to financial markets), so expecting the same market behavior at different timeframes using the same evaluation criterion may not justify itself. Usually, either a cyclic approach is added in order to anticipate the phase change, or "patterns" are used. Without automation.
Frankly, I'm not interested in figuring out your strategy, using lots, waiting for "binding" contracts to emerge, etc. Especially since the equity picture you posted states that the modelling quality is 25%. If indeed it is 25%, then there is nothing to even talk about. And if MetaQuotes put some special criterion into those percentages, I don't know... (I don't use MetaTrader for testing and I don't develop automatic systems). Also I have 3600 trades in 1.5 years, i.e. 10 trades per day. I find this strategy rather unreliable due to spread and slippage factor. And taking into account optimization and short testing period of 1.5 years. But who knows...