Market patterns - page 6
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What is meant by "specific example"? Are we talking about a pattern in Level 2 that you want me to present here and the specific pieces of history where it manifests itself?
I am analyzing all major currencies and crosses obtained from them in real time using 3D graph. Here we have the movement of liquidity in major currencies (not symbols), the movement of potentials of these currencies (the topic is related to the accumulated traded volumes), several methods of detecting the insiders on the symbols, plus two dozens of parameters processed by the fuzzy neural network.
Regarding history in CSV, I have history saved with a different extension.
Whatever, csv,txt...no extension at all... a sequence of numbers is asequenceonPandora. Separator, comma, tabulation, space, etc...
Anyway, forget it, I've already changed my mind, if it's an excuse at this stage, it's rubbish. As expected. Sorry, no time to get into the sense of file formats, profound differences between "symbol" and "currency pair" and other pseudo...
Good luck.
A word of advice to spectral analysis enthusiasts: apply your knowledge to Level 2. You'll find a lot of interesting things if you do it right.
How deep is level2 available to you?
WoW! Cool! True ball my buddy recommended this resource as the most active and competent!
Thanks to all who spoke hrenfx, Heroix , C-4, Silent, 223231,Alex_Bondar, ProstoTak, gunia, etc.... Especially hrenfx and 223231 for the specifics I can understand, and Heroix for the tip on the parser.
Some gentlemen seemed to me to have spoken in too general a manner, or I failed to understand some points.
For example ProstoTak is very far away from me and probably already forgot how it was in the beginning))) Therefore his reasoning is difficult to understand. I understand that Level2 is a good kind of data, but it's not even clear in principle how to analyze it. I can only guess that it's about different proportions of buyers and sellers volumes, as well as some extreme fill-ins and their holding times. This is still too much for me, at least we need to summarise the simple price laws, on candlesticks of minutes and correlations with other assets.
Frankly speaking, I created this thread to aggregate and catalogue the fragmentary knowledge, but the opposite effect occurs, the knowledge is added and added without any sorting.
I do not know what to do. My brain is not a bag of boiling water, I feel it will soon overwhelm me. I have to build something with them or send to the warehouse.
I understand that everyone is interested in communicating only on their own high level, on their own interesting topics, you have to try to find a common denominator.
For example, respected hrenfx has divided strategies into "breakout" and "breakdown" strategies. This is a well-known classification, sometimes they say "flat / trend", etc. The logic is based on the definition of 2 states and 2 assumptions:
States: trend and corridor (trend/flat, so fewer letters... )
Probabilistic assumptions:
1) If trend, direction of price increase will hold.
2) If flat, the direction of price increase will reverse.
Two opposite assumptions depending on the type of state. It is hard to identify the states (there are many methods), this identification is the main puzzle, or rather how to deal with them. To reduce obviously unsound views that are not falsifiable and unprovable, but intuitively comfortable. Like Elliot waves for example, which when I was introduced to them were just a masterpiece of logic and design, this is because I am used to thinking in pictures, but now it seems to me to be a fallacy. What is non-falsifiable is anti-scientific and therefore impractical.
There was a sensible suggestion from Mr gunia to use examples, in my opinion this is logical. You can take data from an open source, put it into the most common format and post it here, to eliminate the possibility of misinterpretation and/or laziness of tortured souls to get the data themselves.
And use this data to practice finding patterns.
For example, take some area, and compare what method gives what efficiency, how this method works, whether it uses a priori information on high-level structural properties of the pattern (fitted), etc. etc.
Take a minute price of a single FI in the beginning, see how one can predict under such conditions, then take all FIs to help and see what then? And so on and so forth.
Perhaps it will come to level2, if such data is in the public domain, so that everyone can prove/falsify the logic for themselves. This is to ProstoTak's question(If you had Level 2 and the task of extracting some information, what would you be looking for and how?)
My answer: I don't have that data, when I do I'll practice and talk about what I thought I could find in it, apart from the commonly known delta.
...
For example, respected hrenfx has divided strategies into "chopper" and "breakout" strategies. This is a well-known classification, sometimes they say "flat / trend" etc. The logic is based on the definition of 2 states and 2 assumptions:
States: trend and corridor (trend/flat, so fewer letters... )
Probabilistic assumptions:
1) If trend, direction of price increase will hold.
2) If flat, the direction of price increase will reverse.
...I am a beginner so I may be wrong but the division in trend and flat strategies is not identical in the sense of classification in breakout and reversal strategies.
In the first case there are not two but one principle - the maintenance of states. If we have a trend then the trend will continue and if we have a flat then it will be a flat, without specifying at what moment or for what reason the change of the state will be determined and what are the characteristics of these states.
The second one implicitly identifies the method of states' division point, i.e. we speak about a channel if the price does not leave the channel borders (support and resistance), the distance between which is proportional to volatility. In case the price leaves the channel, by a certain amount, it is called a "breach" which signals the change of the state into a "trend" and inversion of the assumption about behaviour.
We can say that the first way of classification is more general and the second is more specific. It all depends on how effective the methodology of the second way is, and this depends on how much the price time series is subject to "level attraction". For example for SB this methodology makes no sense at all, just like any other methodology. But SB shifted by increments is already more attractive for forecasting, though channel theory is ineffective for it, then just reasoning can be based on following the trend, without taking into account any channel boundaries.
It was interesting, as hrenfx advised, to go from the opposite and simulate processes ideal for one or another strategy, then determine the signs of the state and already look for them in the price series, where the strategy would be most applicable.
1) If trend, direction of price increase will remain.
2) If flat, the direction of price increases will reverse.
But first you have to give at least a definition of the coloured terms. That would take half a lifetime :)
P.S. ... Until you realise it's bullshit, which is of no use at all.
The point is that both breakout and breakdown strategies do not necessarily require the definition of "trend" and "flat".
Ask 5 positions and Bid 5 positions, that's enough to have enough information for real time analysis.
On futures?
If you had Level 2 and the task of extracting some information, what would you be looking for and how?
Patterns on the ratio of cup and trade volumes.
Well, the point is that both rebound and breakout strategies do not necessarily require the definition of "trend" and "flat".
On futures?
Patterns on the ratio of cup volume to trade volume.
And that's because the trend and the flat are arbitrary. All of these are easily replaced by the term trend[*].
And this concept* has two characteristics that allow you to make a profit.
In a flat the angle is 0, or tends towards zero. Therefore a flat should also be a kind of trend (why should it be below).
Ideally (with known values of the angle and volatility) it is possible to scalp regardless of a trend or a flat.
But the notions of a trend and a flat are also applicable, but they are from different orders. A flat is not the opposite of a trend, it is rather its lower fractal component.
Look carefully at the H1 and M5 charts. If the first one contains almost no flats, then the second one consists almost entirely of them and (surprises) impulses.
An impulse is in addition to a flat in the market characteristic. And a trend is its big brother (the opposite of a trend, it is also a trend but in a different direction).
And that's because the trend and the flat are conditional concepts. All this is easily replaced with the term trend[*].
And such a concept* has two characteristics that allow it to make a profit.
.....
It is the momentum that is in addition to the flat in the market characteristic. And the trend is their big brother (the opposite of a trend, also a trend but in a different direction).
5 points!
But the concept of a trend is not disclosed.
5 points!
only the concept of trend is not disclosed.
A trend (trend) is a suppressor (something that suppresses) a party of bulls or bears (as the case may be), a mental component of the market that is in the minds of most market participants.
The suppression of one part of the market leads to a flow of participants from one conditional party to another, resulting in a quadratic relative increase of participants in the winning party. Hence the nature of momentum.
Since the component is mental, it changes in accordance with the psychological laws of nucleation, development, and conquest of life space (minds) by ideas.
At the lower TF it is very dynamic, changing almost without inertia, while at the higher ones there is inertia (which creates angles of movement).
The trend has only one characteristic "angle". It is also a force of pressure. If the angle changes we can talk about the degeneration of the trend or its completion.
Volatility is not related to the trend characteristics (it does not define its development), but it is needed for making a profit. Therefore, it would be reasonable to measure it in TS and use it as a reference point.
Trends have 3 stages:
The first occurs in the lavas of opposition, and is characteristic of stage 3 of the ruling trend. The second stage is full control of the ruling party, with inter-establishment wars within.
The development of internal confrontation (when some want to go fast and others are in no hurry) leads to a transition to the third stage. Thus, the emergence of a new trend takes place in parallel with the withering away of the old trend (this is the stage of uncertainty, the decision made in this stage is the most expensive, the criticality of error is high), work in the 2nd stage is jumping on a moving train (often ineffective, but with the right skill can be drunk without much risk).