Anti-martingale
You'll send a photo from the Maldives to the forum.
If you don't have a positive mate expectation (your signal is correct 60-65% of the time), what difference does it make how you manage your capital?
Martingale and all its derivatives (anti-marting, pyramiding, doping, reversal) are for people who don't understand anything about probability theory and gambling theory.
The point is to find the moment in the market that will give profit with 60-65% probability (if tp=sl, if not, there are other percentages), and already from it to squeeze out
maximum capital management, and there are no baby toys (martin, anti-martin and so on) speech.
You'll send a photo from the Maldives to the forum.
If you don't have a positive mate expectation (your signal is correct 60-65% of the time), what difference does it make how you manage your capital?
Martingale and all its derivatives (anti-martin, pyramiding, doping, reversal) are for people who don't understand anything about probability theory and gambling theory.
The idea is to find a moment in the market with 60-65% probability of profit (if tp=sl, if not, there are other percentages), and use it to squeeze
If tp=sl, then other percentages are different, and then you need to squeeze out from it.
With proper MM martingale and its derivatives make sense, but only if it is used consciously, not out of greed and fear to lose 5 kopecks, but it always comes down to this, because it leads to the sinking and in addition you do not take into account the properties of the strategy, which may have different properties, including the ability to withstand martingale, and some even the need to oto
For example it is contraindicated to use it in the channel, but it may lead to good profits when leaving it, etc.
If you have a good MM martingale and its derivatives make sense, but only if you use it consciously, not out of greed and fear to lose 5 kopecks, and that is what it always comes down to, so it leads to a loss. Besides, you do not take into account properties of the strategy, which may have different properties, including the ability to withstand a martingale, and some even need it.
For example it is contraindicated to use it in a channel, but it can lead to good profits when exiting it, etc.
Have you read what you're quoting? Do you understand everything I've written?
The point is that you need to find a point in the market which with a probability of 60-65% will give a profit (if tp = sl, if not, there are other percentages), and already squeeze out of it
maximum capital management
This strategy - hasn't worked for eight years now.....
This is how they earned in the last millennium, and now it's no longer working, because all the "smart" ones are trading this way...
... it no longer works because that's how all the "smart ones" trade...
is technical analysis still appropriate for making position decisions in speculative trading /Forex/ or is it "used by many smart people"?
positive expectation for the trading period - if (now) it is not some barometer of the profitability of the TS, then what other "unpopular" indicator of the profitability of the TS should we use?
So is Technical Analysis still appropriate for making position decisions in speculative trading /Forex/ or is it no longer suitable, since many smart people are hooked on it?
positive expectation for the trading period - if (now) is not some barometer of the profitability of the TS, then what other "unpopular" indicator of the profitability of the TS should be used?
Regularities, in the last century, could live and work for years, now - you can find a pattern, but from the moment of putting the Expert Advisor to test - at the beginning of the championship - the pattern will disappear like the morning fog ... and winning the championship becomes nothing more than a fluke, as I've read about more than once in winners' interviews.
Optimisation does not solve the problem.
The ideal solution would be an EA capable of searching for emerging patterns over the last 4-6 weeks of the current moment, in a fairly wide range of symbols, timeframes, and trading philosophies (if I may say so)
Or the Expert Advisor should be able to follow the market structure, or even two or more structures (of different trading philosophies)
Precise money management allows increasing of balance curve at ratio of 50:50 (flip of a coin)
And competent money management allows you to see the balance curve rising even when the ratio of profitable/loss-making trades is not in our favor.
It's all about being systematic over a sufficient period of time, and not on the tester.....
............... And in the state of mind....... most giants from trading - paid more attention to their inner world as opposed to indicators!
This is what I mean - arguments about right and wrong have never led to anything constructive, except burning witches at the stake
In order to be a really good specialist, you need to consider all the situations offered by the market and life itself, and never be too categorical about "Like NUNA", "Like MONA" and "Like NOT MONA"!
I wonder, with a martin we can buy more so as not to go into a hole and get our own, but why are we so reluctant to use the "Anti-martingale" strategy when we earn?
Maybe we should buy in...., but at what levels.... what are the criteria...
Why does greed not play into this, even though the balance increases.
Williams recommends on fractal breakouts with alligator open
1 - first lot, 5 - second lot, 4 - third lot, 3 - fourth lot, 2 - fifth lot.
Again a lot of nuances nowadays - timeframes, instrument, shoulders, exit strategy
Ivan you are wrong. (By the way Williams goes to 3 very bad letters, he deserves it)
The regularities are there now and work out fine without any problems. At the same time they have become more complex, times more complex. Once upon a time it was probably possible to put one Mashka and trade from its direction. But as you say "because that's how all the "smart ones" trade", consequently the resource of this pattern gets depleted and it simply disappears. You cannot squeeze more out of any pattern than there is in the market.
At the same time, this view of the market as a certain chaos of a bunch of small speculators, which is totally untrue. The presence of market makers, hedge funds and other big players changes everything dramatically. As a result, the market has not turned into a kind of swamp of almost perfect chaos that instantly reacts to the emergence and identification of patterns by the players and eliminates them.
As for the championship, it's quite funny. Strong dependence on luck is related to the fact that if you set the algorithm with normal risks you have no chance at all to break into the top. If you start to overestimate the risks, it does not matter which algorithm is the basis of the strategy, because the probability of total loss is more than 50%. In such a case why bother? put the MACD that comes with the terminal (in the package) adding MM to it and take the first place. (2011 by Igor Korepin aka Xupypr)
Yeah, why the sarcasm?
and do you understand all the words in the above? )) You said almost the same thing, only I wrote everything without rubbish in its pure form, but you did not notice that.
Also you're wrong about martingale, it is not just inefficient, but generally an unacceptable option for MM because of the guaranteed loss.
This is a task for 2nd year of any so called "institute". Take a piece of paper and a piece of paper and do the math.
1) have a strategy where we will have 50% of positive entries and 50% of negative. what is the probability of getting a sufficient series of losing trades to plummet our deposit? how much money will we be able to earn if we get this series at the very end (eg a probability of 1/1000, so the series will be 1000th)
2) The same for say 65%, will we lose money if such a series occurs at the beginning of the game?
Of course you can complicate things by limiting losses, complicated systems of docking and other nonsense, the main thing is not to deceive yourself that it allegedly will somehow affect the final result.
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I wonder, with a martin we can buy more so as not to go into a hole and get our own, but why are we so reluctant to use the "Anti-martingale" strategy when we earn?
Maybe we should buy in...., but at what levels.... what are the criteria...
Why does greed not play into this, even though the balance increases.