Territory of probability - page 4

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If you make a monthly profit of 20% of the deposit, after a year the initial deposit will increase 9-fold. Why are theories and probabilities, as well as their combination, not conducive to obtaining such stability?

TV is hypotheses translated into mathematics, a way to preliminarily know the possible result - it is dragged down with the real trading. And the maths itself is based on the postulate that 2 + 2 = 4, and if this is not so, and even the number of Pi has an infinite number of decimal places, ie, the error is, this is the error of this probability theory and well be considered no more.

 
vspexp:

If you make a monthly profit of 20% of the deposit, after a year the initial deposit will increase 9-fold. Why are theories and probabilities, as well as their combination, not conducive to obtaining such stability?

TV is hypotheses translated into mathematics, a way to preliminarily know the possible result - it is dragged down with the real trading. And the maths itself is based on the postulate that 2 + 2 = 4, and if this is not so, and even the number of Pi has an infinite number of decimal places, ie, the error is, this is the error of this probability theory and well be considered no more.

Probability theory is a great thing, and you yourself use it all the time: you put SL and TP, so you assume that there is a probability of price moves up and down. Martin, anti-martin are also based on probabilities.
 
The question that keeps bugging me is: why do all traders lose (99.999 and if some don't lose, they haven't had time to do it yet)? Probably the probability of winning is slightly below 50% due to the spread, say 45%, that is 45 traders out of 100 should be in the long run in the plus, but in fact almost everyone is in the red. It seems that we have the advantage - powerful computers, thousands of indicators, expert advisors, neural networks, etc. - and yet we are always in the red? What is this trick? Is the impact of the spread so large? Is it really the 3 pip spread that is to blame?
 
papaklass:
Most people always lose out because they don't spot a trend change in the market in time. They enter the market too late. They usually enter at the end of a major move. They enter when the smart ones begin to fix profits. And the result of these entries is a loss, because the movement in the entry direction has ended. The market trend has changed. But they start to understand it too late.
Everyone has different reasons for losing, it is not clear why with almost 50% probability of winning almost all 100% of traders lose, not just 50%.
 
07041982:
I'm sorry but I disagree with you again, the theory of probability is a great thing, for example all the same golden rule of trading only on the trend is derived from the theory of probability. By applying in practice techniques such as those I cited in the first post you can achieve increased statistical advantage and mathematical expectation, and therefore money.
You do not know the theory of probability, you do not even understand its basics, but you are speculating about things that you think are described by the same theory. For reference, "trade only on the trend" does not come from the theory of probability. There is no such law and there is no statistical confirmation of this nonsense.
 
C-4:
You do not know the theory of probability, you do not understand even its basics, but you argue about things that you think are described by this theory. For the record, "trade only on the trend" is not derived from probability theory. There is no such law and there is no statistical confirmation of this nonsense.
Why are you being so rude? I don't know, but I will explain it to you: prices move in trends, which can be represented as a zag-zag (broken line). If you randomly touch the broken line, most of the time you will hit straight lines (trends) and not corners (trend reversal points). Well, if it's not clear, then add the lengths of all straight lines and the lengths of all corner points, you will get for example 1000:1, it is clear that the probability to hit at random in 1000 than in 1. Just from such considerations and derived a golden rule do not try to catch the reversal of the trend but follow it. And it's not nonsense, if you don't understand something or don't agree we can discuss it reasonably.
 
papaklass:

I told you in a previous post why most people lose. Because they buy at the top of the market and sell at the bottom of the market.

Your thesis of a 50% probability of winning is too abstract, because you haven't articulated the initial conditions. Depending on where you are in the market (initial conditions) at a given point in time, the probability of winning will vary. For example, let's take the historical extremums of the EURUSD pair: max = 1.60 on 01.07.2008, min = 0.82 on 01.10.2000. So if you buy EURUSD near the historical maximum and set big goals (2500.0 pips), the probability of losing is higher than the probability of gaining, and vice versa, if you buy EURUSD near the historical minimum, the probability of gaining is higher than the probability of losing.

So reasoning about a 50% chance of winning or losing without considering specific conditions (risk, position holding time, targets, etc.) is reasoning about nothing. And this reasoning (without n.u.) has nothing to do with probability theory.

Of course I don't want to argue with you, but I hope you understand that the probability of trend continuation at ANY point of it is higher than the probability of this trend reversal, even if it is a historical extremum, the trend can still continue with a probability of more than 50%.

And there may be other reasons why many people are losing, some are trading at random, some are paired trading, some are using neural networks...

 
And even if you write an anti-strategy for any of your strategies, that is, change the direction of trade with the same signals for entry, you will still lose sooner or later, although in theory you should win. So I do not think tardiness of signals and late entries/exits has anything to do with it. The question why it always happens is still open to me personally.
 
papaklass:

That's what I'm telling you: the probability of winning or losing is not always 50%. The probability depends on the conditions. You just confirmed that yourself.

Yes, there are a lot of questions, a lot of things are unclear.

For example, the price has risen strongly, let us say, to a historical maximum. There may be several variants:

1) the trend will continue (more than 50% probability, as the golden rule).

2) the trend will reverse (since it left the statistical distribution and has to go down for the average)

3) the trend will move in either direction 50% to 50% (due to the free price movement theory)

4) The trend is going in the unknown direction (mathematical, statistical and technical analysis is suddenly not helpful, and the fundamental analysis rules).

 
07041982:

Yes, there are a lot of questions, a lot of things are unclear.

.... ( suddenly mathematical, statistical and technical analysis is not the answer, but fundamental analysis is)

well said!

I think that the volumes of money that are not disclosed in Forex rule. What makes the price turn around? - It means that the conditions must be in place - and the price will go where the market makers can make money - so when many traders believe the trend continuation and go north, the price will instantly react and go south - to provide money for those who make the market.

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