The market is 5 years old... at this stage, my thoughts on the above : the market, it's an art. no probability, no probability works, just like logic, except that female logic is more applicable here :) it's like music (I've been making music myself for 15 years)... There are a ton of synthesizers, ways to write music, but in the end, it all doesn't work, and ONLY talent multiplied by experience and hard work. trying to approach the market from the standpoint of probability theory is as stupid as writing music from the same standpoint. If you go further in comparison, you need to understand and, most importantly, feel the rhythm, the tone, the idea from within, otherwise you will fail or make a fake. They often compare successful trading on the market to controlling an aeroplane, but I think it's more accurate to compare it to playing the piano.
statistical advantage can be achieved, but there is no money)
"No matter how many times you roll a letter cube, you can't get a poem.") if someone has thrown them a billion times before you, you have a statistical advantage to get at least a row... but it's unlikely to happen in your lifetime)
3. You've got it all wrong. The probability of winning or losing is determined by your TS strategy, not by whether you are trading a fixed or dynamic lot. But you correctly noted that with dynamic lot and change of volume of position at each trade, the volume of losing position will always be more than the volume of last profitable trade. But this does not mean that your TS will result in a loss, namely:
a).If the number of losing trades will be less than the number of profitable trades, such a system will result in you being in the black.
б). If Take Profit > Stop Loss, you will be in the red.
в). You will not be able to change the volume of your open positions on every trade, but you can bind these changes to a certain level of your deposit. For example, as long as your deposit is within the range of 1000 - 1500 you open with 0.01, if the deposit has moved into a new range of 1501 - 2000, you open with 0.02, and so on. In other words while your deposit is within the defined limits, you trade with a fixed lot. If the deposit has moved into a new range, you change the lot and trade with a fixed lot again until your deposit moves out of this range.
There are many more variants, but I will stop here.
statistical advantage can be achieved, but there is no money)
"No matter how many times you roll a letter cube, you can't get a poem.") if someone has thrown them a billion times before you, you have a statistical advantage to get at least a row... but it's unlikely to happen in your lifetime)
.... the result is something like ..... but the results are disappointing.... however you want to understand and most importantly feel the rhythm, the tone, the idea from the inside...
There are so many directions and styles in music, some like classical, some like metal, and some combine the two - they all make music, create, gain experience. Sometimes even Buranovskiye babushki shoot :) / sometimes even Buranovskiye babushki shoot :) /.
It is the same in trading - for the algotraders, mathematical methods are important; for supporters of manual trading, intuition /unspecified rules/ may be applied, and some go for a combination.
For myself I support trend trading, I know that due to irrationality of forex, the statistical data of TS plays a major role - mathematical expectation, at least credit for my trading method is formed.
Also I try to use the ratio SL to TP - 1:3 with the possibility to close earlier, because in the long term this ratio contributes to the growth of the deposit. But I'm not very good at probability theory.
I also try to use SL to TP ratio of 1:3 with the possibility of closing earlier, because in a long horizon this ratio contributes to the growth of the deposit. But I'm not very good at probability theory.
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I propose to discuss here the methods and techniques of using probability theory to build trading systems. I will present my thoughts on this subject in the form of theses:
1) The probability of trend continuation in any part of it at any moment is higher than the probability of its reversal. Hence, the golden rule of trader: trade only with the trend.
2) The probability of winning with a random entry and the same TP and SL tends to 50% with increasing SL and TP.
3) The probability of winning when trading with a dynamic lot is lower than when trading with a fixed lot. I came to this conclusion on my own. I will try to prove it: let's say we have TS, which alternately triggered TP and SL, i.e. SL-TP-SL-TP-SL-TP, while SL = TP. Spread is not taken into account to ease understanding. When trading with a fixed lot, we obtain for example: -$10+$10-10$+$10-10$+$10$=0. When trading with dynamic lot we will get -10%+10%-10%+10%-10%+10%+10% and it will not lead us to zero profit, but will be a loss. For example, the deposit was 100, we got: 100-10%=90; 90+10%=99; 99-10%=89.1; 89.1+10%=98.01; 98.01-10%=88.209; 88.209+10%=97.0299, which was needed to prove, the loss is visible.
I am waiting for your comments and constructive criticism if anyone does not agree with my third thesis. If anyone has any other thoughts on the use of probability theory, please speak up.