Matstat Econometrics Matan - page 8
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You see the thing is, I didn't accidentally give you the example of Ask and Bid.
What will happen to Ask if Bid changes? You probably can't predict, because Ask has already changed along with Bid, and you don't know what will happen to it next.
Nevertheless, they change linearly and depend on each other ))
If the Bid will go up, the Ask probably will go up (but is not obliged).
If the ask goes down, the bid will probably go down as well (but doesn't have to).
Isn't that right? Or do you have a different opinion?
This is no longer a question of what prediction, this is starting to be a theory that many here are battling over.
Why call Ascand Bid? Let's say the X axis is time and the Y axis is the average price on each trading day. The forecast is an upward trend.
Where will it go?
What about here?
Where does it go here?
How about here?
If you use linear regression, the trend is down
Oleg, there is a strong request.
This thread is not about physics.
You don't understand anything at all.
Maybe someday you'll come to understand... or maybe it will never come to you.
If you use linear regression, the trend is downwards
Continued to the first and second picture respectively.
you don't understand anything at all.
Maybe someday you'll come to understand... or maybe it never will.
I understand what you're trying to say.
Read the thread title. Physics is not in the title, although it can describe non-linear processes.
Other sciences are also able to do it with zero mathematical expectation, so it is not a question of understanding pictures,
but a question of understanding in what topic you are writing.
Continued to the first about the second picture respectively.
Well, that is to say, you realised that:
1. prediction is a probabilistic characteristic;
2. linear regression is not the only method of predicting time series;
3. The price series is a non-stationary process.
Well done!
Well, I mean, you get that:
I hope you realised that your prediction is with a probability of 0.5, i.e. - none.
I hope you realise that your prediction is 0.5, i.e. no probability.
What are you even doing in this thread?
Well, you don't even know what you're talking about.
What are you even doing in this thread?
Well, you don't even know what you're talking about.
Reading smart people like you.