Machine learning in trading: theory, models, practice and algo-trading - page 1599
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The fortune-teller draws 3 cards that fully describe the details of the current situation, of which she knew nothing
the Barnum effect - in short, all people evaluate themselves or their livelihoods by generalized phrases we hear every day - the words may change, but not the meaning in general
And says what will happen in the future (this can't be verified yet)
It's like searching for truth in the markets, 90% of successful predictions can nail the other 10% of our self-confidence (or confidence in our happy destiny in this life)
Is the sample representative enough?
of course we can do statistical research )))), but I doubt that there are any specific recommendations, like: buy shares of Gazprom, buy an apartment with a mortgage, in a year sell it for two prices - enough for the bank's interest and for a happy life....
But it is clear enough - don't walk in dark alleys at night, don't get worked up over nothing, etc. and then all your beginnings will be adequately perceived and planned without turmoil in your head
euh ))))
SZZY: Another observation - all kinds of businesses in the non-production sphere are based on advertising, in your case, perhaps, some of the clients were trained actors ;)
the Barnum effect - in short, all people evaluate themselves or their livelihoods by generalized phrases we hear every day - the words may change, but not the meaning in general
It's like searching for truth in the markets, 90% of successful predictions can nail the other 10% of our self-confidence (or confidence in our happy destiny in this life)
of course we can do statistical research )))), but I doubt that there are specific recommendations like: buy shares of gazprom, buy a mortgage in a year and sell it for twice the price - enough for the bank's interest and for a happy life....
But it is clear enough - do not walk in dark alleys at night, do not get worked up over nothing, etc. and then all your beginnings will be adequately perceived and planned without turmoil in your head
euh )))
It is dangerous to believe in such things. Psychologists have studied a lot about these phenomena, as Igor wrote.
The person's experience and the skill of the fortune-teller also play a role - a drunkard is usually visible to an experienced person, and if one is able to draw the right cards, then voila (by the way, cards can have several meanings, too - it's very convenient).
What kind of life situation the person is in can also be seen by mood, words spoken and other indirect signs. It only remains to build him the picture he needs, which will suit him.
It is dangerous to believe in such things. Psychologists have studied a lot about these phenomena, as Igor wrote.
The person's experience and the skill of the fortune-teller also play a role - a drunkard is usually visible to an experienced person, and if one is able to draw the right cards, then voila (by the way, cards can have several meanings, too - it's very convenient).
What kind of life situation the person is in can also be seen by mood, words spoken and other indirect signs. It remains to build it just the right picture, which will suit him.
A little bit about terver or random wandering or whatever you want. We take an unknown fortune-teller and put her in front of us. We ask a very specific question that interests us - what will happen in the future. There are 140 cards (or so) in the deck. The fortuneteller takes out 3 cards that fully describe the details of the current situation, of which she knew nothing, and says what will happen in the future (this cannot be verified yet). We observe the further work of the fortuneteller with other also strangers, they too remain delighted. Everything is transparent, people are anonymous, no one knows anything about anyone, including the fortune teller, the session is free. After 5-7 observations, my brain broke and I left. Is the sample representative enough?
you have to put 28*3 = 84 cards with all pairs (3 options for each - up, down, sideways) in front of her and let her guess by days
or by the hour
But if currency movements were completely consistent with the GCS, then making it a profitable system is half a kick
But if currency movements were fully consistent with the SOM, it would be half a kick to make it a profitable system.
That's not quite right... Not the MSG, but a stationary random sequence. Therefore, the main task of a trader is to make every effort to obtain the necessary stationary Palm-type flow from the initial tick flow. Not by some transformations (Lambert, Box-Cox, etc.), but by so-called "sifting". Perhaps there are other options, but I am not aware of them...
And where, in fact, is the Sorcerer?
He has scattered them all, scattered the market: Alyoshenka the son, Fa, Doc, the Teacher... Some of them are gone, and those are far away... But the Sorcerer was always there! Where's the sorcerer gone?!
A little wrong... Not GSC, but a stationary random sequence. Therefore, the main task of a trader is to make every effort to get the necessary stationary Palm-type flow from the initial tick flow. Not by some transformations (Lambert, Box-Cox, etc.), but by so-called "sifting". Perhaps there are other options, but I'm not aware of them...
Well some can be "improved" by a betting system and some can't
and those that are not, those are more
PS and how can you sift through the quotes?
PS And how can you sift through quotes?
:))) Buddy, people have been working on this for years and are saving this technology.
Max Dmitrievsky knows a little more about it than everyone else. But so far, by all appearances, the results are not very good... The reason is banal - he sees that it's all about the market's own time, but (and it's not his fault) continues to think in terms of our earthly time - one hour, one minute, one second... And it's not so on the market - it has its own structure of time, which is difficult to describe in ordinary terms.
:))) Buddy, people have been working on this for years and are saving this technology.
Max Dmitrievsky knows a little more about it than everyone else. But so far, by all appearances, the results are not very good... The reason is banal - he sees that it's all about the market's own time, but (and it's not his fault) continues to think in terms of our earthly time - one hour, one minute, one second... But it's not so on the market - it has its own time structure, which is difficult to describe in ordinary terms.
Well, theoretically, it is clear that even the incremental module can be used... not always, but sometimes you can.
I was really surprised when instead of the module on GSCh I took the increments themselves and saw that the result had not changed much
But the question remains
of course you can bravely and stupidly compare kotier and RMS and if kotier does not match the RMS, then just ignore this spin
we can do it six months / a year in advance, right? yes, we can
and don't compare them: yes - yes, no - no hello tomorrow
or take several RPMs in parallel, compare the last kotir with them and make multiple entries
SZY in fact now can earn only one who sees the deviation of the kotir from the LOSS and understands in what direction this deviation