The winner of The Odd or Even World Tournament - A thought for reflection - page 2

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Dominik Christian Egert #:
Let's say following:

A plays against B, C, D and wins 2.

B plays against C, D and wins 1

C plays against D and wins 1

D has lost. A win twice.

The result is still determined.
The amount of wins is not congruent to the rounds played.

Cnnsidering that A played to all of them as you mentioned, we have:

- If D has only lost, then A computed 1 point;

- If C played against D and winned 1, than A computed 1 point more;

- If B played agains C, D and winned only 1, I suppose from your post that B lost to A, than A computed 1 more point.

==> So, according to your post, A has to win 3 times in order to the 3 last statement be correct. OR the statement 1 is correct OR the last 3 ones are.


My table doent have any hole and the literature points to the same direction: we need N-1 rounds to get the winner. The only hole in my arguements was the lack of the description "SINGLE" double robin, what I corrected and now is undoubted.

 
Dominik Christian Egert #:
Oh, I think I made a mistake in the last wins/loss counts...

I am to tired, I'll correct it tomorrow.

kkkkk  dont worry Dominik, I think I am right, but I also consider the chance to be wrong.

Tomorrow we keep going!

Best!

Alexandre

 
Alexandre Sousa Bezerra #:

kkkkk  dont worry Dominik, I think I am right, but I also consider the chance to be wrong.

Tomorrow we keep going!

Best!

Alexandre



You are right.

But in reverse this means, there will always be a lucky participant, having a full winning streak.

So, it's not as bad as it seems, after all, this is also a given then, isn't it?

So one could say, participating means at least taking the chance to be that lucky one.

That's why people play the lottery, I guess.
 
Alexandre Sousa Bezerra:

Have you ever played Odd or Even games blinded?

Odd or Even is a silly game that we're used to play over our entire lifetime, most common in your childhood and useful in many situations. If you assume a fair play, it becomes a trully lucky game, besides few people may say there are "techniques" to increase the chance of success... that is why a blind game comes to assure it will be nothing but a lucky game.

Imagine a championship with all living human being around the world, 6 billions or more, all of them blinded and certainly assuming a fair play from the first to the last match that will decide the world champion. How many times the winner has play to get the trophy? Doesn't matter how many matches he overcomes, in all of them he has to win, cause there must be a winner. 

In an All-Play-All (SINGLE round-robin) tournament with 6 billion players, the winner must play 5.999.999.999 times! The 2nd, 3rd, 4th.... 1000th must also win billion times. We could go further, for instance to 1.000.000th player, he also needs to win million times. It is interesting how many incredible lucky players this hipotetical silly game would reveal. And even more insteresting is that the winner has the same chance of loosing the next game than the last place in this tournament.


Now, let's come back to MQL5. 

When you see a great EA, with a perfect profit curve, without any losses, going straight to the top of the Everest, do you believe it is really reliable? Or you just found an Odd or Even world champion? Winning 5.999.999.999 times doesn't mean the EA will win again the next game. This is exactly what we see here when test the "best" EA in live account.

So, how to avoid such risk of choosing a bad EA? Well, there is no way at all! This is a PARADOX that any person is subjected to. Neither Warren Buffet can scape of this, cause he can also be an Odd or Even winner. Actually, he is still far far far far away of being a world champion of such game cause the 1st should win 6 billion times without any loss. 

This Paradox brings us a curious approach to the market: are the 1.000th richest stock market investors the top 1.000 players in the Even or Odd world tournament? Or they can really predict the market? All I know is that statistics can give us a wrong answer.

It is so true that if you use statistics to predict the next game of the winner of Odd or Even game based on 6 billion winning matches, you will have only 50% of chance to succeed…

Therefore, always when you find a famous investor or fantastic EA, ask yourself: is it an Odd or Even great player?

Interesting paradox - of course if a round-robin tournament commenced for everyone on the planet (8Bn I read), even if every challenge took 1 sec without gaps, the entire human race would be extinct before it could complete.

That said the worldwide population of people who actually trade must be in the millions - I guess 10M at most? Still a formidable number for a such a paradox and could still be longer than humans will be on earth!

Anywhere in the top 1% (100k people if 10M assumed) would mean you are a master - I guess people like Warren Buffett and Jim Simons are the very best in that population of active traders 

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