AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 04.01 - 11.01: Breakdown with 0.8087 Key Support and .8700 Psy Resistance - page 2
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Press review
newdigital, 2015.01.09 13:18
Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy at 0.8075
Recent wave: Wave 4 ended at 0.8066 and wave 5 has possibly ended at 1.1081
Trend: Down
Original strategy :
Buy at 0.8075, Target: 0.8215, Stop: 0.8020
New strategy :
Buy at 0.8075, Target: 0.8215, Stop: 0.8020
Aussie's rebound after falling to 0.8033 earlier this week suggests consolidation above this level would be seen with mild upside bias for test of 0.8158 resistance, break there would signal low has possibly been formed, bring a stronger rebound towards resistance at 0.8216, once this level is penetrated, this would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent decline to 0.8250-60 and later towards 0.8300-05 which is likely to hold from here.
In view of this, we are looking to buy aussie on dips. Below said support would signal recent decline has once again resumed and extend weakness in wave (5) to psychological support at 0.8000, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 0.7940-50 and reckon 0.7895-00 (50% projection of 0.8723-0.8088 measuring from 0.8216) would contain downside, risk from there has increased for a corrective rebound to take place later this month.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which has possibly ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and should bring weakness to 0.8000 but reckon downside would be limited to 0.7890-00.Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2015.01.09 15:04
2015-01-06 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | USD - Non-Farm Employment Changeif actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
==========Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.
Employment in professional and business services rose by 52,000 in December. Monthly job gains in the industry averaged 61,000 in 2014. In December, employment increased in administrative and waste services (+35,000), computer systems design and related services (+9,000), and architectural and engineering services (+5,000).
Employment in accounting and bookkeeping services declined (-14,000), offsetting an increase of the same amount in November.
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AUDUSD, M5, 2015.01.09
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AUDUSD M5: 40 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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newdigital, 2015.01.10 07:58
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 12, 2015 Forecast (based on fxempire article)The AUD/USD is trading at 0.8142 up by 19 points as the US dollar eases. The currency should have fallen when retail sales printed below expectations but it saw little reaction. The Aussie jumped above the 0.8100 level on Thursday following the release of surprisingly strong figures showing approvals for the construction of new homes had risen 7.5 per cent in November. The currency was also being supported by lower oil prices while concerns over the Eurozone were driving investors towards the Aussie dollar. The euro was in rapid decline as investors seeking better returns favored the Aussie and kiwi currencies. Commodity currencies are beginning gain momentum as traders look for safe places to invest with the JPY worrisome at present.
This morning data showed a significant drop in China’s PPI index while CPI met expectations. Slowing consumer demand has been hurting Chinese companies already suffering from thinning margins, and it looks like the pain isn’t ending any time soon.
These numbers are key for tracking a potential global demand slow down, and economists are especially worried about that since deflation has taken hold in Europe officially. In China, economists like Societe Generale’s Wei Yao are especially watching PPI. PPI tells us how much money producers are getting for their goods.
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newdigital, 2015.01.10 17:49
AUD/USD Completes a Double Bottom; Watch for Resistance (based on forexminute article)
NFP Report was a bit crummy. Although the headline reading was slightly above forecast and the unemployment rate fell, labor participation also dropped to its lowest rate in 33 years, and average hourly earnings fell in December. This gave way to some correction against recent USD strength, and the AUD/USD rallied.
The 4H AUD/USD chart shows that a double bottom was formed after today’s NFP report. Now, we want to see confirmation. If price gets to 0.8215-0.8235, we should expect some resistance. If there is one, we should monitor the 0.8125 area. A bullish market should hold above this level. However, a break below 0.81 makes it unclear, and a break below 0.8087 is likely to signal bearish continuation, or at least a sideways instead of a bullish consolidation. This would put pressure on the 0.8035 low, with risk of breaking towards the 0.80 handle. On the other hand, a break above 0.8250 would signal a more bullish type of correction within a medium-term consolidation mode.