AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 27.07 - 03.08: Possible Reversal? - page 3
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MY preference: Long positions Above 0.93599 with targets @ 0.94152 in extension.
MY preference: Long positions Above 0.93599 with targets @ 0.94152 in extension.
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mazennafee, 2014.07.30 09:53
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9365; (P) 0.9390; (R1) 0.9407; More...
AUD/USD's consolidation pattern from 0.9504 continued is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. More corrective trading should be seen with risk of another fall. Below 0.9328 will target 0.9211 support and below In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9504 at 0.9181 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, above 0.9504 will extend the rise from 0.8659 to medium term fibonacci level of 0.9583.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a medium term correction. Recent development argues that it's possibly finished at 0.8659 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.8544. Rebound from there would extend higher to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.8659 at 0.9583 first. Sustained break there will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0155 and above. However, break of 0.9080 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would likely extend the correction from 1.1079 to a new low.
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newdigital, 2014.07.30 09:54
Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)
The advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may heighten the appeal of the U.S. dollar as the world’s largest economy is expected to grow an annualized 3.0% in the second-quarter.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
A marked rebound in the growth rate may spark a greater dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a growing number of central bank officials scale back their dovish tone for monetary policy, and Chair Janet Yellen may come under increased pressure to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the outlook for growth and inflation improves.
The pickup in wage growth along with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may generate a better-than-expected GDP print, and a large uptick in the growth rate may generate a bullish reaction in the greenback (bearish EUR/USD) as it fuels interest rate expectations.
However, sticky inflation paired with the persistent slack in the housing market may weigh on the growth rate, and a disappointing GDP release may spur a near-term selloff in the reserve currency as it gives the Fed greater scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Economy Expands 3.0% or Greater
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: 2Q GDP Reading Disappoints- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD Daily
- Despite oversold RSI signal, downside targets remain favored
- Interim Resistance: 1.3650 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3670 (61.8% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.3370 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3380 (38.2% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the last release(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
2014
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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.30
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AUDUSD M5 : 27 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event
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mazennafee, 2014.07.30 10:19
Aussie Extends Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD weakened 0.24% against the USD to close at 0.9386 following upbeat data from the US.
LME Copper prices declined 0.2% or $16.0/MT to $ 7116.0 /MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.7% or $13.5/MT to $ 1974.0 /MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9379, with the AUD trading 0.07% lower from yesterday’s close.
Earlier this morning, data from China, Australia’s biggest trading partner showed that the Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment index in the nation rose to 114.8 in July from a reading of 112.6 reported a month ago.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9366, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9354. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9398, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9418.
Amid lack of economic releases today, investors would wait for a slew of data from Australia scheduled earlier tomorrow.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and is trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
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mazennafee, 2014.07.30 11:49
AUD/USD Consolidates Below 0.9400
The Aussie has spent the last few days easing back below both the 0.9425 and 0.9400 levels with the former providing some resistance, which has now resulted in some consolidation in a small range around 0.9385. The Australian dollar reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 towards the end of last week after it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. It started last week by slowly easing away from the resistance level around 0.9425 which continues to stand tall and play havoc with buyers. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 a few weeks ago, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95.
After the Australian dollar had enjoyed a solid surge in the first couple of weeks of June which returned it to the resistance level around 0.9425, it then fell sharply away from this level back to a one week low around 0.9330 before rallying higher yet again. Its recent surge higher to the resistance level around 0.9425 was after spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220. The 0.9220 level has repeatedly reinforced its significance as it is again likely to support price should the Australia dollar retreat further. Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time.
The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year. For the best part of February and March the Australian dollar did very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although at the beginning of March it crept a little lower down to a three week low below 0.89. Towards the end of March however, the Australian dollar surged higher strongly moving to the resistance level at 0.93 before consolidating for a week or so.
Consumers have got their groove back, having shaken off their woes about the federal government's planned budget cuts. The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan survey shows consumer confidence levels at a seven-month high, rebounding from a slump in April and May sparked by news of spending cuts. Confidence levels rose 2.4 per cent in the past week, adding to recent gains and giving more weight to the theory that the recent falls were related to temporary shock from the budget. ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said confidence levels were now back in line with business confidence. "Consumer confidence is now back to pre-budget levels and consistent with moderate growth in consumption and economic activity," he said in a statement on Tuesday. "The good news is that the headline impact of the budget appears to be temporary and the more enduring features of the economy, such as rising share and house prices, job creation and a stable world economy are now driving consumer attitudes to spending and finances." Economists believe that with consumers feeling more confident, retail sales should pick up. Meanwhile, a separate survey found that business confidence also appeared to be improving, with the number of new company startups rising more than a fifth in the June quarter. The Dun and Bradstreet survey also found that nearly two thirds of respondents were more positive about the economy than a year ago.
AUD/USD Technical
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Wednesday, the AUD/USD is continuing to ease a little lower under the 0.9400 level after meeting resistance at the 0.9425 level over the last few days. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents and it has done very well to recover slightly to well above 0.95 again. Current range: trading below 0.9400 around 0.9380.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.9220 and 0.9100.
• Above: 0.9425 and 0.9500.
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mazennafee, 2014.07.30 12:57
AUD USD Technical Analysis
Breakdown is going on for AUDUSD H4 timeframe:
0.9384 support was broken from above to below, and it is 0.9365 for now. It means - if you place sell stop order at the price 0.9384 so you should have 19 pips in profit by equity for now:
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newdigital, 2014.07.30 21:01
2014-07-29 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
USD - Federal Funds Rate = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other banks overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future
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US Federal Reserve leaves policy unchanged despite stronger growth
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday (July 30) stuck to its plan of holding its base interest rate near zero while steadily trimming its stimulus, despite a surprisingly strong second-quarter economic growth report.
The Fed as expected reduced its monthly bond purchases by US$10 billion, taking the programme to US$25 billion a month, but said the low federal funds rate remains needed to support growth and improvement in the labour market.
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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.30
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AUDUSD M5 : 47 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event
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mazennafee, 2014.07.31 06:15
AUD USD Technical Analysis
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