EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014 - page 4
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
MY preference: Long positions with targets @ 1.34145 in extension.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
mazennafee, 2014.07.30 09:36
EUR/USD Daily Outlook[Click Here]
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3393; (P) 1.3418 (R1) 1.3434; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3397. As noted before, the medium term trend is reversing. Break of 1.3397 will target 100% projection at 1.3209. On the upside, above 1.3445 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited well below 1.3700 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 is viewed as a corrective pattern. One interpretation is that fall from 1.6039 to 1.2329 was the first leg. Price actions from 1.2329 were the second leg, in form of a triangle. In such view, the fifth leg of the triangle pattern could have completed at 1.3993 already. In other words, the decline from 1.3993 is resuming the fall from 1.16039. Medium term outlook will now stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.3700 resistance holds. Break of 1.2755 key support level will raise the chance of an eventual break of 1.1875 low.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
mazennafee, 2014.07.30 10:36
EUR/USD To Proceed Short Below Barrier Levels 1.34328 And 1.34030
We seem to have had a moderate forecast for yesterday with 4 out of the 7 pairs behaving as predicted. This was due to US Dollar strengthening slightly instead of weakening as we had thought. Also Japanese yen gained a bit of strength instead of weakening. The euro, US dollar and Austrialian pairs are on our watchlist for today due to our fundamental watch. Both the US dollar and yen could be on the weak site today. Adding two hedged pairs to offset the trading risk.
Forecasts Outlook
US Dollar: Weak
Today we're expecting the EURUSD to proceed Short below the barrier levels of 1.34328 and 1.34030.
Fundamental Watch
- German Prelim CPI m/m
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- Advance GDP q/q
- FOMC Statement
- Building Approvals m/m
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
mazennafee, 2014.07.30 11:37
EUR/USD: down-trend extending to S3 monthly pivot
The EUR/USD has now decisively broken below the S2 monthly pivot and is continuing its short-term down-trend lower. It will probably fall to the next level of support at 1.3370, where S3 is situated, although the month ends tomorrow and pivots will recalculate on Friday so it is only a temporary level of support.
For those seeking confirmation, a break below the current day lows at 1.3394 , or possibly 1.3390 could provide necessary confirmation that the next leg lower was unfolding.
Today is FOMC day and there is also 2nd quarter GDP data from the U.S so there could be a lot of volatility. With this in mind, a further break below 1.3350 could signal a stronger move to the next target at 1.3300, or eventually 1.3210 - the end target for the C leg of a possible measured move down from the highs.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
mazennafee, 2014.07.30 11:55
Euro At Eight Month Low Ahead Of FOMC
EUR/USD
Open 1.3408
High 1.3445
Low 1.3403
Close 1.3406
On Tuesday the EUR/USD decreased with 40 pips. The european currency depreciated from 1.3445 to 1.3403 yesterday, matching the negative money flow sentiment at under -12%, closing the day at 1.3406. This morning the euro is trading quietly, with movements at the lower end of yesterday's range for now.
On the 1 hour chart the downward channel is extending, while on the 3 hour chart the downward channel is intact. Break above the nearest resistance and yesterday's top at 1.3445 may trigger further strengthening of the euro. Going below today's bottom and first support at 1.3403, however, would confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards next objective downwards 1.3290.
Quotes are moving just below the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating slim bearish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is negative and hesitant, MACD is negative and quiet, while CCI is in line with the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all light short signals.
Technical resistance levels: 1.3445 1.3560 1.3682
Technical support levels: 1.3403 1.3290 1.31678
Yesterday we made +23 pips profit/loss on EUR/USD from the following sent to clients only signal:
5:15 GMT+1 Sell EUR/USD at 1.3433 SL 1.3459 TP 1.3383, exit sent at 15:00 GMT+1.
Total yesterday +105.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
mazennafee, 2014.07.30 11:58
EUR/USD's Downward Movement Extends Lower
The EUR/USD's downward movement from 1.3650 extended to as low as 1.3403. Initial resistance is at the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.3300 area. Key resistance is at 1.3444, only break above this level will indicate that consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3700 is underway, then further rally to 1.3500 area could be seen.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
mazennafee, 2014.07.30 12:07
EURUSD
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
mazennafee, 2014.07.30 17:48
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Surges as on Strong Q2 GDP, FOMC Next
Dollar's rally continues in early US session after release of much strong than expect GDP data. In Q2, GDP grew at 4.0% annualized rate, the highest level since Q3 of 2013, and beat consensus of 3.1%. The solid gain more than offset Q1's -2.1% contraction, upwardly revised from prior estimate of -2.9%. The economy grew at about 1% pace for the first half of 2013. The GDP report overshadowed the disappointing ADP employment report, which showed 218k growth in private sector jobs comparing to expectation of 241k. Released from Canada, IPPI dropped -0.1% mom in June while RMPI rose 1.1% mom.
The dollar index surges in response to the GDP data and hits as high as 81.465 so far. Just shy of 81.48 key resistance. Based on current strong momentum, 81.48 would likely be firmly taken out. And, that would confirm reversal of the trend from 2013 high of 84.75. More importantly, the dollar index would declare victory in defending the long term fibonacci level at 50% retracement of 72.69 to 84.75 at 78.72. And that would also set up for a test on 84.75 key resistance in medium term.
Focus will turn to FOMC rate decision next. Fed is expected to taper the asset by another USD 10b, leaving the program at USD 25b per month. As usual, the reduction should be split evenly between treasuries and MBS. Overall, Fed is on track to end the QE3 by the end of October. FOMC should maintain the forward guidance that rates will stay low for a period of time. But the focus is on whether FOMC members are convinced that the economy is already in sustainable recovery. Also, Fed's view on whether inflation is still expected to run below the target would be watched.
Elsewhere, German CPI decelerated to 0.8% yoy in July. Eurozone confidence indicators were slightly better than expected in general. Swiss KOF leading indicator dropped to 09.1 in July while UBS consumption indicator rose to 2.06. New Zealand building permits rose 3.5% mom in June, Japan industrial production dropped -3.3% mom in June.
Japan's economic data released over the past 2 weeks underscored the downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook of the world's third largest economy. It has also raised the uncertainty of the BOJ's monetary policy going forward. The BOJ introduced 'Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing' (QQE) in April 2013 to achieve the inflation target of 2%, with a time horizon of about two years. The program would be an open-ended one beyond 2014. We expect to see more guidance from the central bank in the October meeting regarding future stimulus measures in light of the current economic backdrop. More in Weak Economic Data Unlikely Triggers BOJ To Intensify Stimulus.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3393; (P) 1.3418 (R1) 1.3434; More....
EUR/USD's fall accelerates to as low as 1.3369 in early US session and break mentioned 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3397 target. Intraday bias is remains on the downside. Current fall should now target 100% projection at 1.3209 next. On the upside, above 1.3415 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.3502 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 is viewed as a corrective pattern. One interpretation is that fall from 1.6039 to 1.2329 was the first leg. Price actions from 1.2329 were the second leg, in form of a triangle. In such view, the fifth leg of the triangle pattern could have completed at 1.3993 already. In other words, the decline from 1.3993 is resuming the fall from 1.16039. Medium term outlook will now stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.3700 resistance holds. Break of 1.2755 key support level will raise the chance of an eventual break of 1.1875 low.
Economic Indicators Update
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
mazennafee, 2014.07.31 05:57
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Daily
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
mazennafee, 2014.07.31 05:59
EUR/USD Technical Analysis 5Hours